by Jared Smola

Commissioner Roger Goodell announced that the NFL Network will air 13 Thursday night games in 2012, running from Week 2 to Week 15.  Throw in the usual Thursday night season-opener, and we’ll have a Thursday night game for each of the first 15 weeks.  Goodell also revealed that all 32 teams will play at least one Thursday nighter (as if we didn’t sit through enough crappy Thursday night games this past season).

From a fantasy perspective, the change will make weekly lineup decisions a bit more complicated.  The Thursday night games force owners to make start/sit calls without a full arsenal of information.  For example, if your top QB plays on Sunday but is listed as questionable, and your backup is playing on Thursday, owners must decide whether or not to risk playing the injured starter before the end of the practice week.  It’s a wrinkle that owners are used to dealing with near the end of the season.  Now it’ll be an issue all year long.

Of course, it could prove to be just another advantage for the well-informed owner.  The less-dedicated teams in your league figure to botch more lineup calls – perhaps taking a few 0s over the course of the season.

At Draft Sharks, we’ll continue to keep our members armed with the most up-to-date news and injury information on the web.

Become a Draft Sharks member today and take advantage of the Early Bird Special – our lowest pricing of the year.  Click right here to get started!

Betting against Gronkowski... Smart? Nah. But that's why they call it gambling!

by Jared Smola

Put some of those fantasy football profits to work with these Super Bowl prop bets:

Which will be the highest scoring quarter?

4^th quarter (+220)

The Giants and Patriots ranked 2^nd and 4^th, respectively, in 4^th quarter scoring this season.  We know both QBs can get the job done late.  I can see a flurry of points in the final few minutes.

Team to score the longest TD in the game

Giants (-115)

Both teams can pile up the points, but the Giants are the better big-play offense.  During the regular season, New York’s average length of TD was 21.1 yards.  New England’s was just 13.2.  The discrepancy in passing TD length was even greater, with Eli Manning averaging 28.4 yards vs. Tom Brady’s 16.9.

How many receptions will Rob Gronkowski have?

Under 5.5 (+125)

Gronk averaged 5.6 catches per game on a healthy ankle during the regular season.  That makes this line seem awfully high considering the fact that he’ll be playing through a high-ankle sprain on Sunday.  Granted, Gronk hauled in 8 balls against the G-Men earlier this season.  But with the positive odds here, I’ll bet on 5 or fewer grabs this time around.

Will there be a lead change in the 2^nd half?

Yes (+125)

There were 4 lead changes in the 2^nd half when these teams met earlier this season.  I’m expecting another see-saw battle on Sunday.

Will either team score 3 unanswered times in the game?

No (+155)

I can’t see either defense playing well enough to allow its offense to go on a 3-score run.  Great value here.

Will there be a special teams or defensive TD scored in the game?

No (-180)

These teams combined for just 4 defensive TDs during the regular season.  The special teams units were even worse.   The Giants didn’t have a return TD all season, while the Pats mustered just 1.  Both teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in both average kick return and average punt return.  There’s not a ton of value here, but it looks like a relatively safe bet.

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Lenny Pappano – Giants 24, Patriots 20

My take on Super Bowl XLVI.  The keys will be:

1.  The Giants defensive front four vs. the Patriots O-line.  The Giants can get pressure on Brady and stop the run with just 4 guys.  That’s a marked advantage in stopping the Pats offense.

2. Rob Gronkowski’s ankle.  Gronk’s dad said his son is suffering from a high-ankle sprain.  If he isn’t effective, it could be a huge drawback for the Pats – especially inside the red zone.

3. Pats secondary vs. Giants WRs.  Mario Manningham has already said he hopes Pats WR/emergency CB Julian Edelman gets matched up against him.  Edelman got torched by Ravens WR Anquan Boldin in the AFC title game.

4. Bill Belichick is a genius who can out-think, out-maneuver and even out-cheat the best of ‘em.  And Tom Brady is Tom Brady.  Those two might be enough to neutralize the advantages I think the Giants have on paper. But…

Prediction:  Giants 24-Pats 20

Jared Smola – Patriots 31, Giants 27

There are some intriguing storylines surrounding this game: the Patriots avenging their Super Bowl 42 loss, Brady going for his 4^th ring, Eli going for his 2^nd in the house Peyton built.   None of it will mean jack squat when the ball is kicked off on Sunday.

This game – as they all do – will come down to the players on the field and the coaches on the sidelines.  The Giants have the edge in the overall talent department.  They have a better pass-rush, a deeper WR corps, and the more productive ground game.  New York’s trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham will give the Patriots’ secondary fits.  And RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs should be able to get rolling against a defense that’s allowed 4.3 yards per carry to RBs this year.

But New England has the advantage in 2 key areas: coaching and QB play.

There isn’t a better Xs and Os coach in the league than Bill Belichick.  Give him 2 weeks to prepare and he’ll come up with a brilliant game plan.  In fact, the Patriots are 9-3 coming off a bye week under Belichick, and 3-1 in the Super Bowl.  That’s a .750 winning percentage with an extra week to scheme.   Belichick will put his guys in a position to succeed on Sunday.

But as NFL games usually do, this one will hinge on QB play.  As impressive as Eli Manning has been this season –especially in the 4^th quarter – I still have more faith in Tom Brady with the game on the line.  He’s orchestrated 34 career game-winning drives, with 3 of those coming in the Super Bowl.  Brady struggled against the Ravens last week, which is only another reason to believe he’ll bring his “A” game this Sunday.

New York’s best chance to slow Brady down will be with their 4-man pass-rush.  But New England’s offensive line is playing its best ball of the year.  They’ve allowed just 1 sack over the past 2 games.  And those have come against the Broncos and Ravens, who ranked 11^th and 3^rd, respectively, in sacks during the regular season.  If Brady gets ample time in the pocket, he’ll pick a mediocre Giants secondary apart.

I expect this game to come down to the final few minutes.  And I expect Brady to get it done with a late TD.  31-27 Patriots.

Matt Schauf – Giants 24, Patriots 17

We all just watched the Patriots shrug off a Ravens pass rush that tied the Giants for 3rd in the league in sacks this season. Some might expect a similar result this Sunday. Don’t.

Pass rushing isn’t just about sacks. It’s also about disrupting the QB. To that end, the Giants have produced 50 more total pressures (sacks/hits/pressures) than Baltimore in just 1 more game this year. The numbers come from ProFootballFocus.com and have been near ridiculous in the playoffs. The NFC title game brought a season-high 20 pressures to go with 5 sacks and 2 hits. The week before saw 4 sacks of Aaron Rodgers. Credit some of that to DE Osi Umenyiora, who has secretly had an awesome year. The veteran notched 9 sacks in 9 regular-season games despite missing time with 2 separate injuries. He has officially added 3.5 more in the playoffs. The group will give Tom Brady trouble.

On top of that, only 2 Patriots offensive players had impactful games against the Giants in Week 9. Wes Welker figures to get his again. Rob Gronkowski appears likely to don a Willis Reed jersey.

New England preyed on New York’s LBs in coverage late in the last meeting. Even if the Pats can do that again, I don’t see it claiming enough yardage to win this game.

Kevin English – Patriots 27, Giants 24

This game is all about revenge. Not only did New England lose to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, but they dropped a Week 9 meeting with them this season, 24-20.

Of course, a lot has changed since then.  The Pats have rattled off 10 straight Ws, with their last taste of defeat coming at the hands of New York.  The Giants ride into this game red hot too, racking up 5 straight victories after losing 5 of 6 over Weeks 10-15.

But with an offensive showcase likely in store, I can’t help but take my chances with Brady over Manning. Not only does he have a superior resume, but he also enjoyed a more impressive 2011, posting 5K yards for the first time, while tossing the second most TDs of his career.  And you know he’ll be looking to prove last week’s dud against Baltimore (239 yards, 2INTs) was a fluke.

Rob Gronkowski’s injury is obviously a cause for concern, but if you’ve seen the guy play, you know he’s a superhuman athlete.  Even if he’s only 80-85%, Gronk’s still more dangerous than most starting TEs in the NFL.

Not to venture too far off the beaten path… but I see this game coming down to the final drive.  I think the Pats D brings their “A” game – as they have over the last 2 weeks – to secure a victory.

Jim Coventry – Patriots 34, Giants 31

This one’s gonna be a classic, at least for those who like to see plenty of offense. The Patriots will show off the best ‘horizontal’ passing attack in the league, which matches up very well against the Giants’ zone defense and should slow down their red-hot pass rush. The Giants, on the other hand, boast a dynamic set of skill position players in a potent passing attack that is facing the 2nd-worst pass defense in NFL history.  Although this could easily be a game that is won by the last team with the ball, the Patriots will have enough to win this rematch of Super Bowl XLII teams.

The Giants have struggled against TEs and slot receivers all season, and the Patriots will use Wes Welker, (a likely limited) Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez to expose the major weakness of the New York defense. When these teams met earlier in the season, all three of these New England weapons had big games, and they should be able to do even better on the big stage of the Super Bowl. The Patriots ultimately lost that regular season game, as they took far too many shots downfield. Expect HC Bill Belichick to learn from that game and allow to Brady to pick apart the defense with short to intermediate passes.

Although the Patriots had a historically bad pass defense this year (2nd worst all-time), they seem to be peaking at the right time. The Giants still figure to be able to move the ball up and down the field, but the Pats are due to take advantage when Eli Manning makes a mistake. In the last two meetings between these teams, Manning led game-winning drives at the end of the game. What many people tend to forget is that Eli threw easy INTs on both of those big drives that were inexplicably dropped by the defender. The New England defense was 2nd in the league with 23 INTs and won’t let Manning off the hook this time around.

Tom Brady tends to ratchet up his game to another level when he feels challenged, and he’s not about to let Manning and the Giants put another dent in his legacy. Brady will hoist another MVP trophy after looking at the scoreboard and seeing Patriots 34, Giants 31.

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Vegas will be coughing up some big bucks to a Draft Sharks staffer after the Super Bowl

Super Bowl XLVI will pit a pair of Draft Sharks staffers against each other. And we’re not talking about boring team allegiances. This is about what really matters: money.

Jared Smola and Matt Schauf were in Las Vegas for the Fantasy Sports Trade Association winter conference in January 2010. In a rare fit of good Vegas decision making, Smola plunked down some money on the Patriots and Schauf the Giants. A little more than a year later, at least 1 will cash a winning ticket

Smola: New England Patriots at 7-1 odds

The Patriots were a pure value play. Last January, they were coming off a 28-21 defeat at the hands of the Jets in the AFC Divisional Round. It was New England’s 3rd-straight playoff loss. There was talk that Bill Belichick had lost his magic. That the Patriots’ championship window had closed. To me, it looked like a perfect betting opportunity.

At 7-1 odds, Vegas was calling the Patriots the 5th-best team in the league heading into the 2011 season. With Tom Brady still at the controls of the offense, Wes Welker returning healthier after his torn ACL in ’09, and a couple young, stud TEs in tow (who, I’ll admit, turned out to be a helluva lot better than I thought they’d be a year ago), New England was being vastly underrated. At least that’s what I told myself as I searched for another way to throw 20 bucks away.

Now, I fully expected New England to do more to solidify its holey D than add a few over-the-hill D-linemen (Albert Haynesworth, Andre Carter, and Shaun Ellis) and a 2nd-round CB (Ras-I Dowling). But this team was always going to live-or-die on the right arm of Brady. And with 1 game to go, they’re still breathing.

I’ll be rooting for the Giants on Super Bowl Sunday. I’m a Boston hater. Plus, I don’t need the money – Draft Sharks pays well! But if Brady does capture his 4th title, I’ll be holding a $140 ticket.

Schauf: New York Giants at 30-1

I’m a little tighter with my money than is young Mr. Smola. I’d like to blame that entirely on the fact that I have kids, but the truth is I’m also kind of a wuss. That’s why I start by looking at teams with somewhat longer odds and then cast my huge sums of betting capital ($5, in this case).

I must admit that I also put $10 on the Eagles at 20-1, basically because I’m a Philly fan. (And, thus, inherently kinda stupid.) My final $5 went to the Bengals at 100-1. Remember, this was back before we knew whether Ochostinko would leave and that Carson Palmer would become the Raiders’ new worst trade. It didn’t make me any money, but I’m rather pleased that Cincinnati at least made the playoffs.

As for the Giants, I actually did believe in them as a contender. Why else would an Eagles fan put money on the enemy? As much as I like to make fun of Eli Manning, the fact is that he’s really good. My favorite team would be in much better shape were he its QB. The Giants also had a lot of existing pieces in a lot of places. The defensive line has been solid for a while, and only got better with Jason Pierre-Paul’s emergence. There were already stars at WR and RB, along with experience on the O-line and in the secondary. Continuity counts for quite a bit in the NFL. Plus, New York was coming off a 10-6 season in which it barely missed the playoffs. I was kind of surprised the team faced such long odds.

So now a pessimist might say that I face the unenviable position of having to root for the Giants to win the Super Bowl. Au contraire. (That’s the only Swedish I know.) While my Eagle-fan brethren would only be further beaten down mentally by a N.Y. win, I’d be $150 richer.

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A healthy Osi Umenyiora could be the key to Sunday's Giants-Packers rematch

by Jared Smola, DraftSharks.com

The Packers lost just once this season.  That slip-up didn’t come against the Giants.  Green Bay left New York with a 38-35 victory back in Week 13.  Aaron Rodgers was Aaron Rodgers, tossing for 369 yards and 4 scores.  Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley all finished with 87+ yards.  The Packers’ defense even chipped in with a score from LB Clay Mathews on a 38-yard INT return.

Despite all that, the Giants had that game knotted up at 35 with less than a minute to go.  That’s when Rodgers calmly led a 4-play, 68-yard drive to set up Mason Crosby’s game-winning 31-yard FG as time expired.

I don’t believe in “moral victories,” but the Giants certainly walked off the field that day with some added confidence.  They know they can hang with this Packers team.  And in the 5 games since, they’ve racked up 4 wins while outscoring opponents 131 to 87.

More importantly, they’ve gotten healthy.  And that could be the difference when the G-Men head to Lambeau for this Sunday’s Divisional Round game.

WR Mario Manningham, C David Baas, and DE Osi Umenyiora missed that Week 13 game with injuries.  They’ll all be in the lineup this weekend.

Manningham has been hobbled by a bum knee most of this season.  But when healthy, he provides QB Eli Manning with another field-stretching weapon.  And with WRs Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz demanding most of the defense’s attention, Manningham is seeing consistent single-coverage.  He took advantage this past Sunday, hauling in 4 balls for 68 yards and a score.  Looking as healthy as he has in a while, Manningham will allow the Giants to spread out a porous Packers secondary that finished dead-last in pass defense.

Baas has been one of the most underrated Cs in the game for a few years now.  He’s been rock-solid in his first season in The Big Apple, allowing just 2 sacks and 6 QB pressures all year.  The G-Men will need him at the top of his game against mammoth Packers NT B.J. Raji, who pressured Manning 3 times back in Week 13.

But it’s Umenyiora who might be the key to Sunday’s rematch.  Despite missing 7 games this season with knee and ankle injuries, Umenyiora racked up 9 sacks.  He added another against the Falcons this past weekend.  Along with Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi gives the Giants arguably the best trio of pass-rushers in the game.

If there’s a weakness with Green Bay’s passing game, it’s protection.  They’ve given up 41 sacks this year – 11^th-most in the NFL.  To slow down the Packers’ offense, you need to be able to get pressure with a 4-man rush.  With Umenyiora, Tuck, and Pierre-Paul, the Giants are capable of doing just that.

Of course, the biggest factor working against New York this weekend is location.  Green Bay has been untouchable at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 19 points per game.  Aaron Rodgers sports a ridiculous 24:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 128.5 QB rating at Lambeau this season.

But the Giants are actually built for outdoor January weather more so than the Packers.  Their running game was abysmal most of the year, finishing dead-last in yards per game.  But they got it rolling a bit down the stretch, averaging 4.2 yards per carry.  And it was full steam ahead against the Falcons on Wild Card Weekend.  RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combined for 155 yards on 28 carries.  They broke off 4 runs of 14+ yards.  And that was against a Falcons team that finished the regular season ranked 6^th against the run.  The Packers were a more pedestrian 14^th.  New York will live or die on the right arm of Eli Manning, but they should be able to run well enough to keep the Green Bay defense on its heels.

Beyond that, the Giants won’t be intimidated heading into Lambeau.  They won an NFC Championship Game there back in 2007 – and then went on to knock off the Patriots in the Super Bowl.  14 players from that roster are still on the team.  That experience can’t be understated.

It’ll be a shootout this weekend.  Both teams’ offenses are better than the Ds.  New York’s pass-rush could be the difference though.  It wouldn’t shock me in the least if the Giants left Lambeau with a victory.

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Cam Newton is the easy choice for Fantasy Rookie of the Year

by Cameron Dark

As Week 17 approaches, it’s likely your fantasy season is over, or your championship is upon you. It’s been another heck of a season, complete with all the triumphs and heartbreaks any fantasy player has come to expect. I’ll give you the biggest surprise, bust, and my favorite rookie for the season. I’m not even beginning to scratch the surface of everything that happened — consider these awards very brief, but these were some standout stories for me.

Surprise:

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles

Shady, Shady, Shady. Nobody doubted him being a fantastic player heading into the season, but nobody expected this kind of production either. He finished the season as the top scoring RB, averaging just under 19 points per game with 20 total TDs. He was drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts, but almost always went after the “Big 5″ of Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, and Jamaal Charles.  McCoy shattered expectations and became the Eagles franchise leader in rushing touchdowns, with 17, breaking a record set in 1945. Impressive stuff. The Eagles may not be making the playoffs, but your fantasy team probably did with Shady McCoy.

Bust:

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Bucs

I wrote about him earlier in the year, trying to calm any early bust panic anyone might have been having.  But 16 weeks into the season and it’s time to call him a bust. I won’t be drafting this guy again. He was a fashionable 3^rd-4^th round pick in many drafts this year, coming off a terrific 1,000 yard rookie season, but didn’t live up to any of the expectations. Blount posted just 5 TDs all year and only three 100-yard games. It’s not entirely his fault though; the Bucs gave up so quickly on the run this season that Blount hardly got any carries, and a bruiser likes him needs lots of carries to break the defense down. There were only 3 games all year in which he received 20 or more carries, and that’s just not enough touches to make him worth drafting as early as he went this year.

Rookie:

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers

A.J. Green has been amazing, and other guys like DeMarco Murray have been fantastic with the amount of playing time they’ve gotten as well, but I had to go with Cam Newton here because he’s an absolute freak. He broke Peyton Manning’s rookie passing record while also breaking the NFL record for rushing TDs by a QB with 14.  Only Aaron Rodgers has scored more fantasy points this season. He’s a monster, rising above what any of the other rookies have done and making himself the clear choice for fantasy and real rookie of the year. He’s a perfect storm for fantasy; demonstrating dominance through the air and on the ground to create a point-producing machine.

Tuesday Night LAP Dance
Leonard A. Pappano
November 29, 2011

** I’m not making excuses for Lions DT Ndamukong Suh, but let’s be honest… if he played in the 1970s, his brand of play would be applauded. And if Bills WR Stevie Johnson played in the 1970s, his own teammates would kick his ass for his antics. Big difference from then till now.

** The biggest non-story line of Thanksgiving weekend had to be the Harbaugh Bowl last Thursday night. I wanted to hurl my turkey listening to all the Harbaugh trivia. Who gives a rip about which brother went to which college… What their parents think about each son… Who had the top bunk growing up… Who their sister is married to… Who is taller… Or who hooked up with the hotter cheerleader in high school. NFL fans who just wanted to watch the Ravens play the Niners got accosted by the human interest angle that frankly wasn’t the slightest bit interesting. One of these years, the NFL will actually consider marketing their games to football fans.

** The Chargers are 13-15 since the final regulation game of the 2009 season. Surprising when you consider that they finished with both the top-ranked offense and defense last year – as well as the 7th ranked offense and 13th ranked defense this season. Yeah, I’m still stinging for putting money on the Chargers to win 10 games this year! Woulda never imagined that bet was lost by November 27.

** From Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle: “After holding a fifth straight opponent to 14 points or less in a 20-13 win over the Jaguars, a couple of Texans defenders, starting with lead headhunter Brian Cushing, sounded a bit like Ray Lewis did with the Super Bowl contending Ravens and Warren Sapp with the championship-level Buccaneers… Remember when Lewis and Sapp were so confident in their defense’s ability to dominate, that they basically told the offense to just put up a couple of touchdowns every week, and don’t turn the ball over and the D would deliver a victory?” That all sounds great. But unlike the Ravens and Bucs of yesteryear, the Texans are now being led by a 5th round rookie QB. Since the merger in 1970, rookie QBs have a 6-9 win-loss record in the playoffs. Brett Favre, anyone?

** Speaking of 5th round QBs… An interesting question to ponder about Tebow – and this is not a rhetorical question: If Tebow were a 5th round pick, would the Broncos have felt compelled to throw him in the starting lineup?

** More on Jesus’ favorite QB: Tebow had 22 rushes against the Chargers, the most carries in a game by a QB since the merger in 1970. No matter what you think of his game, it will be awfully hard for him to stay healthy for 16 games in 2012.

** Here’s a possible Freudian slip from Patriots coach Bill Belichick. In his Sunday post-game press conference, Belichick said, “We’ve got a long way to go. There’s a lot of football left. I mean, eight games…” Uhhh, 8 games? There are only 5 games left in the regular season. Unless you’re already counting an AFC Divisional Playoff game, the AFC Conference Championship, and the Super Bowl as 3 additional games on your schedule. Hmmmm…

** From our hometown boy, the Democrat and Chronicle’s Sal Maiorana on Stevie Johnson’s TD celebration: “If you want to get mad at the NFL for being the No Fun League, that’s fine. Me personally, I find most TD celebrations farcical, selfish, me-first acts by athletes who are more concerned about their Q rating and their endorsement possibilities. The game is usually entertaining enough without that nonsense. Anyone miss that crap in college football? But that’s just me, the old-fashioned curmudgeon that I am.” I owe Mr. Maiorana a beer.

** If you don’t know the difference between Wisconsin and Minnesota, apparently you can get a gig with ESPN! Yeah, I know – everyone makes mistakes. But not everyone has a zillion dollars in resources to make sure those mistakes don’t go on air. Anyway, the easy way to remember the difference in the states is that the average January temperature in Minnesota is 30-below-zero, while in Wisconsin it’s more like 20-below zero.

** Texans RB Arian Foster has 30 TDs in his first 31 NFL games. The only RBs with more in that span are Edgerrin James (34), Clinton Portis (33), and Curtis Martin (32). Actually, I got that from reading ESPN.com, so it could be all wrong…

** Rich Hoffman of the Daily News had this on Eagles enigmatic WR DeSean Jackson after his benching against the Patriots: “Even someone who considers himself a fan of Jackson’s overall game, and his ability to alter defenses and seize moments, cannot ignore the evidence that he is shying away from contact, more and more. It was clear on the first touchdown that he dropped, how he visibly flinched when he sensed Patriots linebacker Tracy White bearing down on him. It is a continuing issue…put it this way: Every time he steps on the field, Jackson complicates the Eagles’ decision about whether or not to sign him to a long-term contract… You watch him 2 weeks ago against the Cardinals and you cannot see him because he has been deactivated for missing a team meeting. You watch him last week against the Giants and you are repeatedly reminded of his singular ability to take a game and make it his. You watch him yesterday and you see a player so unfocused, and so conscious of avoiding contact, that you wonder if he can function at all effectively on the dangerous plays that are an essential part of his business.”

** Much is being made about Chargers K Nick Novak relieving himself into a Gatorade cup on the sidelines Sunday in the waning minutes of the Chargers/Broncos game. Why do I have a feeling that some lawyer from PepsiCo is looking through their contract with the NFL searching for a breach?

** Bengals HC Marvin Lewis with some high praise of rookie WR AJ Green: “He’s the best first-round draft pick I’ve ever been around,” Marvin Lewis said after the Browns game. “He continues to amaze me, every day.” Bear in mind that Marvin Lewis once coached MLB and first-rounder Ray Lewis while Lewis was in his prime.

** The Vikings’ 2-9 start is their worst 11-game start since their inaugural season of 50 years ago in 1961…. That will probably cost HC Leslie Frazier his job in January. On the one hand, it’s seemingly unfair that Frazier inherited a lot of predecessor Brad Childress’ defensive coaching staff. On the other hand, Frazier went to the mat to bring in QB Donovan McNabb.

** The corporate-speak that infects the NFL is amusing. Here is part of Colts HC Jim Caldwell’s official statement on the firing of DC Larry Coyer. “The move was made to improve communication and production.” Huh? Anyone wanna take a shot at translating that for me?

** David Haugh from the Chicago Tribune critiquing Mike Martz’s play-calling in the Bears loss to the Raiders this weekend: “If [QB Caleb] Hanie was looking like anything but a career backup by then, go ahead and empty the playbook. But when Hanie played the first two quarters in a way that made Bears fans long for the consistency of the Rex Grossman Era, Martz’s play-calling must reflect that. You don’t ask a new driver to navigate big-city traffic during rush hour on the day he gets his license… It got so bad I wondered if the Bears would consider ‘Tebowing’ the offense so Hanie’s biggest decision would be whether to hand off to Forte or Marion Barber.”

** WTVT-13 in Tampa has issued an apology for inadvertently giving its viewers a glimpse of an unidentified Bucs player nude from the waist down. The TV crew was interviewing T Donald Penn when the naked Buc appeared in the background. Not for nothing, but maybe that’s a better way to market the NFL to women, rather than to trumping up the “Harbaugh Bowl.”

** Every year we wrestle with who to name as our Breakout Player and First Round Bust. In hindsight, our Honorable Mentions (Jimmy Graham for Breakout and Michael Vick for Bust) were spot on – while our top candidates (Ryan Matthew and MJD) have been ok, but only ok in their respective categories.

** Interesting take by Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News. “DeMarco Murray is the most compete back the Cowboys have had in a long time. He’s more complete than Emmitt because he came out of college with more polished skills in the passing game, both as a blocker and receiver. What made Emmitt special was his running instincts. You won’t see five backs in your lifetime that had that natural feel for daylight when the ball was under his arm.”

www.draftsharks.com

The much-maligned Patriots defense could post useful fantasy numbers down the stretch

by Jared Smola

If you’ve been playing the matchup game with your defenses all year, we’ve got a few units with juicy schedules for you to consider for the stretch run.

But first, let’s look at how our picks for the middle third of the season fared…

Cleveland Browns (Weeks 6-8): ranked 22^nd among defenses

Miami Dolphins (Weeks 6-10): ranked 9^th

Cincinnati Bengals (Weeks 6-10): ranked 4^th

Buffalo Bills (Weeks 6-9): ranked 17^th

Oakland Raiders (Weeks 6-9): ranked 30^th

So, a couple duds there but a couple major hits too.  You could have won plenty of fantasy games with the Bengals, Dolphins, and even the Bills.

Here are 6 defenses we like to post useful fantasy numbers the rest of the way…

New England Patriots

Week 12 – @ Philadelphia

Week 13 – vs. Indianapolis

Week 14 -@ Washington

Week 15 – @ Denver

Week 16 –vs. Miami

Week 17 – vs. Buffalo

Denver Broncos

Week 12 – @ San Diego

Week 13 – @ Minnesota

Week 14 – vs. Chicago

Week 15 – vs. New England (bench this week)

Week 16 -@ Buffalo

Week 17 – vs. Kansas City

Seattle Seahawks

Week 12 – vs. Washington

Week 13 – vs. Philadelphia

Week 14 – vs. St. Louis

Week 15 – @ Chicago

Week 16 – vs. San Fran

Week 17 – @ Arizona

Arizona Cardinals

Week 12 – @ St. Louis

Week 13 – vs. Dallas (bench this week)

Week 14 – vs. San Fran

Week 15 – vs. Cleveland

Week 16 – @ Cincinnati

Week 17 – vs. Seattle

St. Louis Rams

Week 12 – vs. Arizona

Week 13 – @ San Fran

Week 14 – @ Seattle

Week 15 – vs. Cincinnati

Week 16 – @ Pittsburgh

Week 17 – vs. San Fran

Tennessee Titans

Week 12 – vs. Tampa Bay

Week 13 – @ Buffalo

Week 14 – vs. New Orleans (bench this week)

Week 15 – @ Indianapolis

Week 16 – vs. Jacksonville

Week 17 – @ Houston

Darren Sproles is leading all RBs in fantasy points per touch

by D.J. Sanzotta

Who is making the most out of their opportunities?  Here’s a look at the top-20 RBs in average fantasy points per touch (rush or reception) through 8 weeks.

RB efficiency is simply the total number of touches divided by the number of fantasy points.

See below for commentary…

1. Darren Sproles- Although he does not receive many carries, Sproles leads all running backs with 51 receptions and ranks in the middle of the pack in total touches. On average, he is receiving 12 touches per game. His 92 fantasy points on 96 touches rank him first in our RB efficiency rankings.

2. LeSean McCoy- McCoy is one of the top RBs in total touches and ranks 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards. On average, he is receiving 22.5 touches per game.

3. Mike Tolbert- Although he receives limited touches, Tolbert is very efficient when he does get the ball. On average, he is receiving 12.5 touches per game.

4. Fred Jackson- Jackson is one of the top RBs in total touches and ranks 4th in the NFL in rushing yards. On average, he is receiving 22.7 touches per game.

5. Ray Rice- Rice is one of the most multidimensional RBs in the league. He ranks 10th in total rushes and 3rd in total receptions among RBs. On average, he is receiving 21 touches per game.

6. Adrian Peterson- Peterson leads all RBs with 183 touches and also leads all RBs with 9 rushing TDs. On average, he is receiving 22.9 touches per game.

7. Steven Jackson- If he can stay healthy, expect him to become even more efficient. On average he is receiving 16.6 touches per game.

8. Darren McFadden- Until his most recent injury, he had been leading the league in rushing yards per game. When he returns to full strength, expect him to continue where he left off. On average, he is receiving 18.9 touches per game.

9. Beanie Wells- Wells ranks 3rd in the NFL with 7 rushing TDs and continues to be a focal point in the offense. On average, he is receiving 19.5 touches per game. We’ll have to see if that knee injury causes that number to slip.

10. Matt Forte- An all purpose back, Forte ranks 8th in total rushes and 2nd in total receptions among RBs. On average, he is receiving 23.1 touches per game — 2nd in the NFL.

11. Jahvid Best- Although he has been dealing with a concussion, Best still ranks 6th in the NFL in receptions among RBs. On average, he is receiving 18.5 touches per game.

12. DeMarco Murray- He has become the feature RB in the last 2 games due to any injury to Felix Jones. On average, he is receiving 8.8 touches per game but 15 touches per game since Jones has been out.

13. Ahmad Bradshaw- Bradshaw has been the feature back for the Giants for the first 8 weeks of the season, but a broken bone in his foot will cause him to miss some time in the upcoming weeks. On average, he was receiving 19.2 touches per game.

14. Michael Bush- Bush receives limited touches, but due to an injury to Darren McFadden, he has been receiving more carries in the past couple of weeks. On average, he is receiving 9.8 touches per game.

15. Michael Turner- Although he is not a big threat to catch a pass, Turner ranks 4th in the NFL in rushes among RBs and has the 2nd most amount of red zone carries. On average, he is receiving 20.7 touches per game.

16. Arian Foster- Foster has been one of the best RBs in the league since he has returned from the hamstring injury that plagued him in the beginning of the season. On average, he is receiving 26.1 touches per game, which is 1st in the NFL.

17. BenJarvus Green-Ellis- He had been the feature back in New England at the beginning of the season, but it seems like New England has a different feature back every week, which makes him an inconsistent fantasy option. On average, he is receiving 14.1 touches per game.

18. Ryan Mathews- Mathews ranks 4th in the NFL in receptions among RBs and has established himself as the feature back in San Diego. On average, he is receiving 20.1 touches per game.

19. Jonathan Stewart- Although he splits carries with DeAngelo Williams, it seems that Stewart is the more productive of the two backs with the opportunities that he receives. On average, he is receiving 11.8 touches per game.

20. Pierre Thomas- Thomas is always a viable option as a receiver when Drew Brees is under center. Thomas ranks 11th in the NFL in receptions among RBs. On average, he is receiving 10.3 touches per game.

by Cameron Dark

Kickers are the laughingstock of fantasy football, and many argue that they shouldn’t even be a part of the game.  But sometimes in our mocking we lose sight of the fact that the Kicker position can rack up some valuable points for you if you know how to use it. Kickers are generally neglected, but there is some strategy involved in selecting a Kicker who will give you the greatest chance to win.  We never recommend selecting a Kicker any earlier than the second-to-last round of your draft, simply because you can get so much value from guys who will be available until the very end. Now that we’re halfway through the season and have a good idea of what each team looks like, let’s see if we can determine some of the best Kicker options available in your league and why they’re successful.

First of all, I want to take a brief look at the upper tier of this year’s Kickers to demonstrate their value. Jason Hanson is the #1 scorer on the year (partly because he has not yet had his bye week) with 86 standard points. Think about it: that’s 10.75 points a game from a position that you probably don’t even think twice about! You’re often lucky to get 10 points out of your flex or bottom receiver option, so why ignore what could be your team’s difference maker? Here are some of the hotter feet in the league right now who are available in over 50% of standard leagues on most websites:

Mike Nugent, Cincinnati

Nugent has scored 66 points on the year, good enough to make him the 8^th-best Kicker this season. He has already had his bye week and is averaging 9.43 standard points per week. Four out of his seven games have been in double digits. Certainly not a bad option to stick in your lineup each week! Why has he been so successful yet still so available to most people? Most fantasy owners go for name recognition when selecting their kicker, and Nugent flies somewhat under the radar. Cincinnati’s offense was not expected to be nearly as good as it is this year, so many considered him not worth a roster spot. Cincinnati’s offense has been surprisingly good, but they still play some stiff defenses, meaning they get stopped in FG territory often, giving Nugent his chance to shine. He has not gone a game without making at least one FG and has only missed one on the year. Plus, the Bengals trust him and aren’t afraid to take a chance on some of the longer range kicks, which equate to bonuses in most leagues. If you don’t already have one of the upper tier Kickers, pick up Nugent if he’s available, which he probably is, and feel comfortable knowing you’re maximizing your Kicker position.

Rian Lindell, Buffalo

Rian Lindell is coming off a nice 3-FG game. He has scored 64 standard points this year, making him tied for the 10^th-best at the position.  But he’s only owned in less than a quarter of leagues on most websites. Buffalo is in a similar situation as Cincinnati: unexpectedly good offense going up against decent defenses, which means a previously unknown kicker getting plenty of chances to score for you. If you’ve got some of the better known yet not as productive kickers (Looking at you Gostkowski, Carpenter, Folk, Bironas, etc.), you are only making your team better by adding a guy who has consistently scored more points.

Gut Pick:

Josh Brown, St. Louis

I realize a “gut pick” on Kickers seems silly, and it is, but I just think this guy will start producing over the second half of the season. St. Louis acquired a huge offensive asset recently in Brandon Lloyd, and with Sam Bradford coming back soon, plus the Rams’ ridiculously easy schedule from here on out, I could see the Rams getting into a position to score much more than the first half of the season. The kid’s been accurate too, missing only one FG on the season; he just hasn’t gotten the chances to score much because of the Rams’ terrible offense. That could and should start to change very soon. Keep an eye out for Brown to get hot during your fantasy playoffs.