by Brian Shuman, guest writer

Buccaneers

The additions of OG Carl Nicks, WR Vincent Jackson, and CB Eric Wright should reinvigorate a Bucs team that dropped off mightily in 2011. After going 10-6 the previous year, Tampa won only 4 games this past season. The trio of newcomers should improve the Buccaneers on both sides of the ball for years to come. Most noticeably, it gives QB Josh Freeman a true # 1 WR and better protection. The Bucs made Nicks the highest-paid guard in the game when they handed him $47.5 million in March. The team did, however, release veteran C Jeff Faine. Jeremy Zuttah is expected to shift from OG to C, so the consistency on the offensive line will be tested. The 26-year-old Eric Wright was signed to improve the depth in the secondary — one that lost S Tanard Jackson and could lose CB Aquib Talib, who is looking at a suspension and possible jail time for a shooting incident last year. But Tampa’s most significant signing was Vincent Jackson. He gives the Bucs their first top WR talent since Antonio Bryant was on the team in 2008. V-Jax will take pressure off WR Mike Williams and TE Kellen Winslow, giving Josh Freeman no excuses in 2012. The Bucs should improve from their 4-win 2011 campaign, but winning the division will be extremely difficult in a loaded NFC South.

Fantasy Perspective: The Buccaneers haven’t had a WR finish inside the top-10 in receiving since 2008 when Antonio Bryant finished 8th. Vincent Jackson has finished 11th, 9th and 16th in the league in 3 of the last 4 years, playing only 5 games in 2010. V-Jax is a clear-cut top-20 WR and should pass the 1,000-yard mark again in 2012. The key is the play of QB Josh Freeman, who regressed after a phenomenal 2010 season in which he threw for over 3,000 yards and tossed 25 TDs compared to only 6 INTs. If he can regain that form in 2012, paired with Jackson, we can all expect Freeman to solidify himself as a low-end QB1. His rushing ability gives him added fantasy value. WR Mike Williams has had 65 receptions in both his 2 seasons with Tampa, but he can be expected to see fewer looks with the addition of Jackson. That being said, he’ll see more single-coverage and figures to be more productive with the targets he does get. He’ll need to improve on his measly 3 TDs from last year though.

Bears

Another team that went out and signed several players to improve their roster was the Bears. The Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall connection should be dynamite. Both players’ best seasons came in 2008 as Broncos. Cutler has been criticized throughout his career as a Bear, but could be in line for a great 2012 campaign. The Bears also added RB Michael Bush to the backfield to go along with Matt Forte. Bush has relished his role as a backup in the league and took advantage of Darren McFadden’s injury last season, running for 977 yards and 7 TDs. On the other side of the ball, not much was done in free-agency. Look for Chicago to use the draft to improve their 17th-ranked defense.

Fantasy Perspective: The addition of Brandon Marshall immediately boosts Jay Cutler’s fantasy stock. The year Cutler was traded to Chicago and split from Marshall, he threw for nearly 1,000 fewer yards and tossed 26 INTs to lead the league. Marshall has struggled when no one was there to throw him the ball in Miami, mustering only 9 TDs over the last 2 seasons. The move to Chicago instantly upgrades his outlook, giving him top-10 upside. As for the RBs, the Bush signing may have improved the team, but it makes the backfield a trickier situation from a fantasy perspective. Barring an extended holdout, Matt Forte will remain the lead back. But Bush is a good bet to siphon 10-12 touches per game, plus goal line work. It puts a cap on Forte’s upside.

Bills

I know… the Bills are the Bills and they don’t know how to win important games. But they are a team to watch because of what should be an improved pass-rush. The Bills really decided to bolster their defensive line through free-agency, signing both Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Williams is a Pro Bowler and one of the top sack artists in the game. Anderson had an under-appreciated 10-sack season in New England last year. The switch to a 4-3 bodes well for the defense, but the team still needs to add depth to several areas, including LB and the secondary. Offensively, the team tried signing Robert Meachem but failed, leaving some holes in the receiving corps. Re-signing Stevie Johnson was huge in keeping the core offensive players on the roster. Keep an eye out for these hungry Bills to see if they can achieve a postseason bid for the first time since 1999.

Fantasy Perspective: The new signings made by the Bills don’t have much fantasy value other than in leagues with defensive players. The team did bring back a key producer on offense in Stevie Johnson, who has reached the 1,000-yard mark the past two seasons — the only Bill in team history to do so. Stevie and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick have a special connection on the field, meaning both should be considered for your fantasy team in the middle to later rounds. Fred Jackson returns from last year’s broken leg and has plenty of upside after last year’s brilliant first half. The worry is that he’s coming off an injury, is 31 years old, and has C.J. Spiller breathing down his neck for touches. It could end up being a 50-50 split, rendering both guys as low-end RB2s.

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Drew Brees and Co. will open up the preseason against the Cardinals

by Jared Smola

We’re waiting a couple more weeks for the NFL to announce the 2012 regular season schedule.  But to tide us over, the league revealed the preseason slate today.

The Sean Payton-less Saints will kick things off against the Cardinals in the Hall of Fame game on August 5^th.  But the highlight of the exhibition season will be the Week 3 matchup between the Colts and Redskins – likely pitting Andrew Luck against Robert Griffin.

For the complete preseason schedule, click right here!

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What can we expect from DeMeco Ryans in his new Eagles digs?

by Matt Schauf

We’ll all spend lots of time analyzing Peyton Manning’s move to Denver and its fantasy ramifications. But this week brought a pretty big change on the other side of the ball, too.

Houston traded LB DeMeco Ryans to the Eagles Tuesday evening for a 4th-round pick and a move up 12 spots in Round 3. That’s how much LBs are worth in the NFL these days. Of course, there were a few other factors at play. Ryans is signed through 2015 at decently large salaries: $5.9 million, $6.6 million, and then 2 years of $6.8 million. The Texans’ new defense under DC Wade Phillips simply made Ryans not worth those numbers. He played just 58.4% of their total snaps last year. The fact that the team couldn’t find more trade value indicates other franchises didn’t fancy the contract either.

But pay is for the Philly front office to worry about. What’s clear to football fans and IDP owners is that the Eagles’ defense got exactly what it needed. The Pro Football Focus ratings go back 4 years. Ryans ranked among the top-23 ILBs 3 times, including last year. He ranked among the top-21 in run defense 2 of the past 3 years.  When he graded poorer in run D — 37th in 2010, 30th in 2008 — he finished 18th and 6th, respectively, in pass coverage. AdvancedNFLStats.com keeps a stat called “tackle factor.” It basically rates a defender’s tackle production against the reasonable expectation for his position and opportunities (team defensive snaps). From his 2006 rookie year through 2010, Ryans ranked top-3 among LBs twice and top-14 2 other times. He came in 23rd in 2008. (The aforementioned scheme changes of 2011 dropped him to 67th.)

This is a good all-around LB. And he’s apparently a leader. Brian Cushing tweeted after the trade: “I wouldn’t be half the player or person I am today without @DRyans59 this one hurts. Philly got a unbelievable player and leader today. #59”

Unless Ryans is a top-shelf needle supplier, this is a compliment of the highest order. Ryans’ leadership doesn’t translate directly to fantasy value, but it sure will help keep him on the field — and likely help raise the level of those playing around him.

The on-field stuff is what matters most to us fantasy owners, and Ryans has given cause for concern. An awesome debut season found him 2nd among fantasy LBs… and Ryans hasn’t made it back to that level since. His 3.5 sacks that season helped inflate his fantasy total a bit but not as much as the league-leading 126 solo tackles. We should probably chalk that up to a crappy defense that steadily added pieces going forward. Ryans hasn’t collected more than 99 solos in any other year.

He hasn’t stunk, either.  Ryans finished 2007 4th among fantasy LBs. He slipped to 23rd in 2008 and 2009, not helped by Houston ranking 27th and 25th in total defensive snaps those seasons. He was bouncing back in 2010. The fantasy scoring average sat 19th and the tackle factor 3rd best among LBs. Then Ryans ruptured the Achilles in the 6th game.

Now he joins a talented Eagles’ defense in need of direction and toughness. Ryans figures to be a godsend against the run. Perhaps he can even turn back into the guy who defensed 8 total passes each of his 1st 2 seasons. Playing behind arguably the league’s best pass rush certainly can’t hurt there.

Right now, I’m thinking Ryans projects somewhere in the LB15-20 range, with clear potential to produce beyond that spot and a chance to slide past it in drafts.

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Is Rob Gronkowski worth a mid-1st-round pick in start-up dynasty drafts?

Editor’s note: the following is a free sneak peek at our March 15th Feeding Tank.  Matt Schauf takes a look at some of the general trends of a dynasty league start-up draft he’s participating in.  To read the rest of the article — Schauf’s breakdown of his first 20 picks, plus a look at Cortland Finnegan’s fantasy value in St. Louis — Draft Sharks members can click right here.  And if you’re not a member yet, subscribe today!

Trends and observations

Although I’m sure you’re interested only in my team, I should probably take a look at some of the other emergent points from the draft so far:

– Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham will go very early in any draft. Both were at least 3 points per game better than anyone else at the position in PPR last year. Each just finished his 2nd season and is easy to get excited about. Are they worth that early an investment, though? Gronk and Graham each caught at least 90 balls, topped 1,300 yards and surpassed 10 TDs last year. Those don’t look to me like easy numbers to repeat annually. Since 2000, only Gronk the past 2 years and Antonio Gates (2004-05) have posted consecutive seasons of double-digit TDs at the position. Only Tony Gonzalez (2007-08) and Jason Witten (2009-10) have reached 1,000 yards in back-to-back campaigns. Perhaps that’s what makes Gronk and Graham breakthrough stars at the position. I also think it’s a reminder that the huge 2011 numbers are hard to attain. Graham could easily settle in as Drew Brees’ #1 target going forward, which is a great place to be. After these 1st-rounders, the next TE didn’t go until Pick 5.03 (Aaron Hernandez). Round 6 saw 2 more, and Round 8 another 2. Vernon Davis went at 6.03 and Jason Witten at 8.04. I’m not comfortable right now with investing a 1st-rounder on Gronkowski or Graham when I can wait 5 more rounds for Davis, 7 more for Witten or even 10 more to combine an upside guy with an insurance policy. We were halfway through Round 20 of this draft before the 13th TE went. I don’t think the 2 studs are bad picks early, but I’d rather collect more top-shelf pieces at WR, RB and/or QB and dip into the later TE values.

– Age can be overrated. I understand that a dynasty league requires some balancing between production and longevity. But Matthew Stafford ahead of Drew Brees? I’m not that much of a believer yet. Cam Newton I could understand a bit more because of his rushing numbers, but I’m not sure that’s a choice I’d make either.

– Perhaps it’s not entirely a passing league yet after all. The first 2 rounds of this draft included 10 RBs vs. just 8 WRs. The runners have long been the blocks on which you’re supposed to build a fantasy team, but the past few years have brought plenty of change. And aside from the whole NFL throwing more and increasingly relying on RB committees, we know that WRs present better career longevity. Yet even adding the 1st-round TEs only balances runners and pass-catchers at 10 apiece.

– I found this interesting: Round 1 featured 6 RBs, and then each of the next 4 rounds included exactly 4 RBs. That means the first 5 rounds included 22 RBs. We can reasonably assume that 1 of the 2 rookie picks selected in this range will become Trent Richardson. So that’s 23 RBs. The same range included 24 WRs. After 2 WRs in Round 1, the next 4 rounds included 6, 4, 7 and 5, respectively. That made the score 6-2 in favor of RBs in Round 1, with WRs winning 3 of the next 4 rounds and tying the other.

– All of that’s probably as it should be. The increase in committees makes it tougher to project so many situations and individual players. The timing of this draft — starting before free agency — only exacerbates that issue. That increases the attractiveness of relative sure things at RB early.

– The fact that Tony Romo went in Round 7, Ben Roethlisberger in Round 8, and Matt Ryan in Round 11 undoubtedly lends credence to waiting on a QB. By comparison, Eli Manning went at Pick 3.11. I don’t think he’s clearly better in fantasy than any of those other 3 passers. Like at TE, this is a matter of deciding your own comfort level. I took Aaron Rodgers in the middle of Round 1 because he’s a sure thing, and I remain comfortable with that pick even after seeing how the rest of the board laid out. Many will feel the same way about Gronkowski and Graham and will wait on a QB. That’s simply a difference in strategy.

– IDPs began dropping at the 5-6 turn, starting on the D-line. I believe that’s how it should generally work. As I’ve said before in this space, locking up a top-shelf DE in a league that requires DL starters is a smart move. Things get much more volatile after a few steadies. LBs started going in earnest in Round 8. No big surprises there. I waited a while and decided to build up other stocks before drafting my 2nd LB. I was comfortable doing so because I trust my knowledge in the area and see a fairly deep rookie crop. IDP strategy can vary greatly depending on your preparation — I’d say more than on the offensive side. The area simply doesn’t get as much attention, so no league will be as familiar with the defensive options as the offensive guys. That can lead some drafters to reach to make sure they’re OK. Others can hang back.

– One spot where you should never reach is DB. It’s arguably the most fungible position in fantasy. (I’m ignoring kickers. My apologies to the Gramatica, Bahr and Zendejas families.) And I don’t even think it’s an argument worth staging. We’re 20 rounds into the draft as I write this, and I skipped safety at my last turn because I saw plenty of guys on the board I still liked there.

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by Jared Smola

The NFL has set the 2012 salary cap at $120.6 million – just a slight increase over last year’s $120.375.  With free-agency set to kick off March 13^th at 4 pm ET, here’s a look at how much cap space each team has to work with.  The Giants, Texans, Panthers, Raiders, Lions, and Cardinals still need to shed salary ahead of the open of free-agency.

Mike Vick could be a value play in 2012 fantasy drafts

by Matt Schauf

Looking for a good investment for your fantasy draft dollar? Check out the rookie WRs.

I’m not specifically advocating this year’s crop. Not even getting into the particular candidates for 2012. The fact is, when you compare price vs. return on 1st-year wideouts over the past 5 years, targeting the group has simply proved a good idea.

From 2007 through 2011, only 17 rookie WRs showed up in the final “standard-scoring” ADP list at FF Calculator. That was just 5% of the 334 WRs overall, meaning fantasy owners don’t trust the new guys.  Yet, of those 17, only 2 who were drafted among the top-50 at their position finished the season outside that range.  That means those who drafted rookie WRs wound up getting good value.

Let’s start with the relative failures … because even they weren’t all that bad. Michael Crabtree obviously let down everyone in 2009, ranking 60th (PPR) and 61st (non) in total points. Once he finally decided to show up, though, he delivered the 37th and 38th best per-game averages among WRs. Patient owners wound up getting a decent return on the guy whose ADP ranked 46th among WRs.

Anthony Gonzalez also missed a few games in his rookie campaign (apparently because he’s made of toothpicks and Elmer’s). Fantasy owners probably overrated his draft position and offense anyway. Gonzalez’s ADP was WR46. He finished no better than 60th across formats. Even then, Gonzalez was merely a mid-11th round pick. That’s hardly true bust territory.

And those were the 2 biggest misses. The rest of the group hasn’t carried much downside. Only 6 of the 17 aforementioned rookies finished lower than their ADPs. We’ve already addressed Crabtree and Gonzalez. The others:

– Dez Bryant was drafted in fantasy-starter range in 2010 (ADP: WR31) but lost 4 games to injury. He still finished 38th (standard) and 42nd (PPR) in fantasy points per game. That’s not too far from expectations, especially considering he played through an ankle sprain.

– Calvin Johnson missed just 1 game as a 2007 rookie but played much of the season with a back injury. We can’t really know how much it affected him, but it didn’t take a scout to see some impact. He still finished just outside starter range — 39th (standard), 38th (PPR) — but couldn’t quite live up to his WR19 ADP.

– James Jones (51) and Ted Ginn (55) each got drafted outside the position’s top-50 in 2007, so their owners suffered no big loss. Jones checked in at 59th (standard) and 58th (PPR) thanks to a low TD tally, while Ginn was nowhere near useful. Anyone who found himself shocked by Ginn disappointing, though, wasn’t paying attention beforehand.

As you can see, the “bad” wasn’t even all that bad the past 5 years. The good, on the other hand, has been quite good. Most recently, A.J. Green far exceeded draft expectations at the top of the 2011 class. He came off the board as the 36th WR and finished no lower than 17th across scoring formats. Julio Jones dealt with a frustrating hamstring injury but still used a late-season explosion to outperform his WR26 ADP. Greg Little finished right about where his WR52 ADP started things. Meanwhile, Torrey Smith, Doug Baldwin, Denarius Moore, and Titus Young produced well beyond their ADPs.

2010 wasn’t deep, but fantasy owners didn’t expect it to be. Only 2 rookies showed up among the 75 WRs on FF Calculator’s ADP list. Bryant we know about. The other, Tampa Mike Williams, delivered a spot-on Michael Clayton impression. He parlayed a WR47 ADP into a top-12 finish in standard formats (16th in PPR).

The class before that was loaded — not surprising from an NFL draft with 6 Round 1 WRs. Only Percy Harvin checked in with a higher ADP than Crabtree’s. He finished the season 10 spots ahead of his WR35 draft position. Classmates Austin Collie, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, and Jeremy Maclin all joined Harvin in fantasy-starter range. Kenny Britt added useful patches, and even Mohamed Massaquoi wasn’t totally irrelevant (unlike the 2 years since).

2008 featured Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson outperforming their ADPs, while undrafted Donnie Avery performed near fringe-starter range. And no wideout graced the 1^st-round of the NFL draft that year. Despite the relative underperformers of 2007, Dwayne Bowe led that class as a solid WR2 in 12-team leagues.

That year was the end of the reliable ADP numbers in my research, but it certainly did not mark the beginning of productive rooks. Marques Colston’s bust out came in 2006. The notorious Clayton ruled 2004, with Lee Evans, Roy Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, and Keary Colbert also delivering starter value. 2003 introduced us to Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson, who ranked 5th and 23rd respectively in standard leagues.

Overall, 18 rookie WRs have finished among the PPR top-50 since 2007. Standard formats saw 20 land in that range. That’s 4 per season.  And the rates increased over the past 3 years (13 and 15, respectively). From 2009 through 2011, rookies made up just 5% of standard WR ADP lists but 10% of the top-50 scorers.

Nearly all of these players were guys you could have drafted as 3rd, 4th or 5th fantasy WRs — or even claimed off waivers during the season. The takeaway here is that you shouldn’t be hesitant to fill a bench slot with an unknown just because Deion Branch looks a little more comfy. We’ll go into greater detail on the 2012 crop of newcomers and their outlooks as the NFL draft comes and goes.

Haley vs. Roethlisberger in the Steel cage

I’m quite intrigued by this Todd Haley-Ben Roethlisberger relationship, and not only because it’s headed toward an inevitable helmet-less motorcycle joust.

To read the rest, Draft Sharks members can click right here.  If you’re not a member yet, click right here to get started!

The following is a running list of players who have been slapped with the franchise tag for the 2012 season.  These guys are playing on 1-year deals that pay them the average of the 5 highest-paid players at their position.  The deadline to declare franchise players is March 5th.

Notable players not franchised: QB Matt Flynn, RB Peyton Hillis, RB Michael Bush, WR Mike Wallace, WR Vincent Jackson, WR Marques Colston, WR Brandon Lloyd, OG Carl Nicks, DE Mario Williams, CB Cortland Finnegan, CB Brandon Carr

by Jared Smola

Commissioner Roger Goodell announced that the NFL Network will air 13 Thursday night games in 2012, running from Week 2 to Week 15.  Throw in the usual Thursday night season-opener, and we’ll have a Thursday night game for each of the first 15 weeks.  Goodell also revealed that all 32 teams will play at least one Thursday nighter (as if we didn’t sit through enough crappy Thursday night games this past season).

From a fantasy perspective, the change will make weekly lineup decisions a bit more complicated.  The Thursday night games force owners to make start/sit calls without a full arsenal of information.  For example, if your top QB plays on Sunday but is listed as questionable, and your backup is playing on Thursday, owners must decide whether or not to risk playing the injured starter before the end of the practice week.  It’s a wrinkle that owners are used to dealing with near the end of the season.  Now it’ll be an issue all year long.

Of course, it could prove to be just another advantage for the well-informed owner.  The less-dedicated teams in your league figure to botch more lineup calls – perhaps taking a few 0s over the course of the season.

At Draft Sharks, we’ll continue to keep our members armed with the most up-to-date news and injury information on the web.

Become a Draft Sharks member today and take advantage of the Early Bird Special – our lowest pricing of the year.  Click right here to get started!

Betting against Gronkowski... Smart? Nah. But that's why they call it gambling!

by Jared Smola

Put some of those fantasy football profits to work with these Super Bowl prop bets:

Which will be the highest scoring quarter?

4^th quarter (+220)

The Giants and Patriots ranked 2^nd and 4^th, respectively, in 4^th quarter scoring this season.  We know both QBs can get the job done late.  I can see a flurry of points in the final few minutes.

Team to score the longest TD in the game

Giants (-115)

Both teams can pile up the points, but the Giants are the better big-play offense.  During the regular season, New York’s average length of TD was 21.1 yards.  New England’s was just 13.2.  The discrepancy in passing TD length was even greater, with Eli Manning averaging 28.4 yards vs. Tom Brady’s 16.9.

How many receptions will Rob Gronkowski have?

Under 5.5 (+125)

Gronk averaged 5.6 catches per game on a healthy ankle during the regular season.  That makes this line seem awfully high considering the fact that he’ll be playing through a high-ankle sprain on Sunday.  Granted, Gronk hauled in 8 balls against the G-Men earlier this season.  But with the positive odds here, I’ll bet on 5 or fewer grabs this time around.

Will there be a lead change in the 2^nd half?

Yes (+125)

There were 4 lead changes in the 2^nd half when these teams met earlier this season.  I’m expecting another see-saw battle on Sunday.

Will either team score 3 unanswered times in the game?

No (+155)

I can’t see either defense playing well enough to allow its offense to go on a 3-score run.  Great value here.

Will there be a special teams or defensive TD scored in the game?

No (-180)

These teams combined for just 4 defensive TDs during the regular season.  The special teams units were even worse.   The Giants didn’t have a return TD all season, while the Pats mustered just 1.  Both teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in both average kick return and average punt return.  There’s not a ton of value here, but it looks like a relatively safe bet.

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Lenny Pappano – Giants 24, Patriots 20

My take on Super Bowl XLVI.  The keys will be:

1.  The Giants defensive front four vs. the Patriots O-line.  The Giants can get pressure on Brady and stop the run with just 4 guys.  That’s a marked advantage in stopping the Pats offense.

2. Rob Gronkowski’s ankle.  Gronk’s dad said his son is suffering from a high-ankle sprain.  If he isn’t effective, it could be a huge drawback for the Pats – especially inside the red zone.

3. Pats secondary vs. Giants WRs.  Mario Manningham has already said he hopes Pats WR/emergency CB Julian Edelman gets matched up against him.  Edelman got torched by Ravens WR Anquan Boldin in the AFC title game.

4. Bill Belichick is a genius who can out-think, out-maneuver and even out-cheat the best of ‘em.  And Tom Brady is Tom Brady.  Those two might be enough to neutralize the advantages I think the Giants have on paper. But…

Prediction:  Giants 24-Pats 20

Jared Smola – Patriots 31, Giants 27

There are some intriguing storylines surrounding this game: the Patriots avenging their Super Bowl 42 loss, Brady going for his 4^th ring, Eli going for his 2^nd in the house Peyton built.   None of it will mean jack squat when the ball is kicked off on Sunday.

This game – as they all do – will come down to the players on the field and the coaches on the sidelines.  The Giants have the edge in the overall talent department.  They have a better pass-rush, a deeper WR corps, and the more productive ground game.  New York’s trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham will give the Patriots’ secondary fits.  And RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs should be able to get rolling against a defense that’s allowed 4.3 yards per carry to RBs this year.

But New England has the advantage in 2 key areas: coaching and QB play.

There isn’t a better Xs and Os coach in the league than Bill Belichick.  Give him 2 weeks to prepare and he’ll come up with a brilliant game plan.  In fact, the Patriots are 9-3 coming off a bye week under Belichick, and 3-1 in the Super Bowl.  That’s a .750 winning percentage with an extra week to scheme.   Belichick will put his guys in a position to succeed on Sunday.

But as NFL games usually do, this one will hinge on QB play.  As impressive as Eli Manning has been this season –especially in the 4^th quarter – I still have more faith in Tom Brady with the game on the line.  He’s orchestrated 34 career game-winning drives, with 3 of those coming in the Super Bowl.  Brady struggled against the Ravens last week, which is only another reason to believe he’ll bring his “A” game this Sunday.

New York’s best chance to slow Brady down will be with their 4-man pass-rush.  But New England’s offensive line is playing its best ball of the year.  They’ve allowed just 1 sack over the past 2 games.  And those have come against the Broncos and Ravens, who ranked 11^th and 3^rd, respectively, in sacks during the regular season.  If Brady gets ample time in the pocket, he’ll pick a mediocre Giants secondary apart.

I expect this game to come down to the final few minutes.  And I expect Brady to get it done with a late TD.  31-27 Patriots.

Matt Schauf – Giants 24, Patriots 17

We all just watched the Patriots shrug off a Ravens pass rush that tied the Giants for 3rd in the league in sacks this season. Some might expect a similar result this Sunday. Don’t.

Pass rushing isn’t just about sacks. It’s also about disrupting the QB. To that end, the Giants have produced 50 more total pressures (sacks/hits/pressures) than Baltimore in just 1 more game this year. The numbers come from ProFootballFocus.com and have been near ridiculous in the playoffs. The NFC title game brought a season-high 20 pressures to go with 5 sacks and 2 hits. The week before saw 4 sacks of Aaron Rodgers. Credit some of that to DE Osi Umenyiora, who has secretly had an awesome year. The veteran notched 9 sacks in 9 regular-season games despite missing time with 2 separate injuries. He has officially added 3.5 more in the playoffs. The group will give Tom Brady trouble.

On top of that, only 2 Patriots offensive players had impactful games against the Giants in Week 9. Wes Welker figures to get his again. Rob Gronkowski appears likely to don a Willis Reed jersey.

New England preyed on New York’s LBs in coverage late in the last meeting. Even if the Pats can do that again, I don’t see it claiming enough yardage to win this game.

Kevin English – Patriots 27, Giants 24

This game is all about revenge. Not only did New England lose to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, but they dropped a Week 9 meeting with them this season, 24-20.

Of course, a lot has changed since then.  The Pats have rattled off 10 straight Ws, with their last taste of defeat coming at the hands of New York.  The Giants ride into this game red hot too, racking up 5 straight victories after losing 5 of 6 over Weeks 10-15.

But with an offensive showcase likely in store, I can’t help but take my chances with Brady over Manning. Not only does he have a superior resume, but he also enjoyed a more impressive 2011, posting 5K yards for the first time, while tossing the second most TDs of his career.  And you know he’ll be looking to prove last week’s dud against Baltimore (239 yards, 2INTs) was a fluke.

Rob Gronkowski’s injury is obviously a cause for concern, but if you’ve seen the guy play, you know he’s a superhuman athlete.  Even if he’s only 80-85%, Gronk’s still more dangerous than most starting TEs in the NFL.

Not to venture too far off the beaten path… but I see this game coming down to the final drive.  I think the Pats D brings their “A” game – as they have over the last 2 weeks – to secure a victory.

Jim Coventry – Patriots 34, Giants 31

This one’s gonna be a classic, at least for those who like to see plenty of offense. The Patriots will show off the best ‘horizontal’ passing attack in the league, which matches up very well against the Giants’ zone defense and should slow down their red-hot pass rush. The Giants, on the other hand, boast a dynamic set of skill position players in a potent passing attack that is facing the 2nd-worst pass defense in NFL history.  Although this could easily be a game that is won by the last team with the ball, the Patriots will have enough to win this rematch of Super Bowl XLII teams.

The Giants have struggled against TEs and slot receivers all season, and the Patriots will use Wes Welker, (a likely limited) Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez to expose the major weakness of the New York defense. When these teams met earlier in the season, all three of these New England weapons had big games, and they should be able to do even better on the big stage of the Super Bowl. The Patriots ultimately lost that regular season game, as they took far too many shots downfield. Expect HC Bill Belichick to learn from that game and allow to Brady to pick apart the defense with short to intermediate passes.

Although the Patriots had a historically bad pass defense this year (2nd worst all-time), they seem to be peaking at the right time. The Giants still figure to be able to move the ball up and down the field, but the Pats are due to take advantage when Eli Manning makes a mistake. In the last two meetings between these teams, Manning led game-winning drives at the end of the game. What many people tend to forget is that Eli threw easy INTs on both of those big drives that were inexplicably dropped by the defender. The New England defense was 2nd in the league with 23 INTs and won’t let Manning off the hook this time around.

Tom Brady tends to ratchet up his game to another level when he feels challenged, and he’s not about to let Manning and the Giants put another dent in his legacy. Brady will hoist another MVP trophy after looking at the scoreboard and seeing Patriots 34, Giants 31.

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