by Cameron Dark

Week 3 brought us some eye popping fantasy performances from some unexpected places. Of course, most of these guys are now hot pickups on the waiver wire, as owners pick them up in hopes that they become viable fantasy options. You know how it goes. Many times, however, there’s a reason these relatively unknown guys step up a certain week, and it probably won’t happen again (See Doucet, Early in Week 1). Let’s take a look at some of the better Week 3 performances from WRs that are probably available in your league this week and examine if we can expect any relevant future fantasy production.

Torrey Smith, Ravens

Torrey Smith had a monster game Week 3, posting 5 receptions for 152 yards and 3 TDs. Obviously you can’t expect these numbers every week, but is it reasonable to expect enough production from Smith to make him worth a roster spot on your team? I don’t think so. First of all, he got injured late in the game with a hamstring injury and has yet to practice this week, so he won’t be at full strength this upcoming week. On top of that, he’s now someone who opposing defenses must recognize and respect to some degree, meaning he’ll actually be getting halfway decent coverage in the future. Plus, Baltimore is going up against the hefty New York Jets Week 4, Pittsburgh Steelers Week 5, on bye Week 6, and Lee Evans should be back to full strength and eating into a lot of Smith’s playing time by Week 7. So there isn’t a lot of upside for Smith anywhere in the near future. He had one fantastic week, but I don’t see him producing much from here on.

Victor Cruz, Giants

By now I’m sure you’ve seen some of Victor Cruz’s spectacular Week 3 highlight reel catches, including an impressive TD catch with Nnamdi Asomugha covering him. Cruz finished Week 3 with 3 receptions for 110 yards and 2 TDs. Certainly not a bad day. However, with Mario Manningham cleared to play Week 4, the Giants will likely be placing Cruz in the slot while Manningham and Nicks are on the outside. Cruz is not the best route runner and has yet to shown any competence in the slot, so I’m wary of Cruz’s production. I see more potential to succeed from him than Torrey Smith, but Cruz definitely won’t be seeing the kind of down-the-field targets he got Week 3 anytime in the foreseeable future. I would like to see Manningham and Cruz on the outside with Nicks, the Giants’ best route runner, in the slot, but I don’t see the Giants making that change anytime soon. Keep your eyes on Victor Cruz if he hasn’t been added to a team in your league yet, but don’t pick him up just yet.

Nate Washington, Titans

Finishing up Week 3’s threesome of breakout WRs is Tennessee’s Nate Washington. Washington ended his week with a solid 8 catches for 92 yards and a TD. We’ve seen more of Washington than these other guys above and know what to expect from him. Washington is a good receiver, not a great one, and certainly does not possess the physical prowess of Kenny Britt.  But Washington is a must add in all leagues nonetheless. He’s going to be THE guy in Tennessee now with Britt out for the year and the Titans’ run game being pretty much nonexistent three weeks in. He’s already proven he can handle plenty of targets and 8 receptions Week 3 means QB Matt Hasselbeck will undoubtedly be looking for him in the future. Washington has tons of upside for the rest of the season, and there is no reason not to expect decent production out of him on a weekly basis. Don’t get too overzealous and start him this week against a very underrated Browns secondary, but don’t hesitate to pick him up and stash him on your bench for future use.

While some of this is obviously hard to predict because of injuries and other issues that could arise throughout the season, as of right now Smith is a guy you don’t bother picking up, Cruz is someone who you keep your eye on, and Washington is the #1 player you should be adding.

Can Ryan Fitzpatrick be a weekly starter for your fantasy team?

by Cameron Dark

By now I’m sure you know about Ryan Fitzpatrick, leader of the dynamic offense that is the Buffalo Bills (when was the last time “dynamic” and “Bills” were in the same sentence?!?). In any case, the stats cannot be ignored: 39.5 points-per-game and 422.5 yards-per-game make the Bills offense more than respectable. Fitzpatrick is the 5^th-ranked QB in standard-scoring fantasy leagues through two weeks, so his immediate fantasy relevancy is unquestionable. For the past two weeks, Buffalo’s offense, on the arm of Fitzpatrick, has been firing on all cylinders, so it’s time to ask: is Ryan Fitzpatrick going to keep this kind of production up?

I think so. Maybe not 3.5 TDs per game like he’s doing right now, but 250 yards with 2 TDs is certainly reasonable on a weekly basis. Call me biased because he helped me win last week, but I think he has what it takes to help your team win every week. However, let me stop before I get too far ahead of myself: Fitzpatrick is for those who are weak at the QB position.  He should not to be used in the place of your elite QBs. It seems obvious, but it’s worth noting anyway. He does have a pretty easy schedule, though, which includes a weak Patriots secondary twice, Cincinnati, Washington, and Denver. The only matchups I’m scared of using him in are Philadelphia and the two weeks he plays the Jets. Simply based on matchups, Fitzpatrick has plenty of opportunity to shine.

What impresses me the most about the Harvard grad is not the sheer numbers he’s putting up, it’s that the guy is actually playing the position well. He’s making previously unknown guys like Scott Chandler and David Nelson look like superstars. Through two weeks, Fitzpatrick has a Total QBR of 84.8, second only to Tom Brady. I understand two weeks is a small sample size, but 7 TD with only one INT — while leading his team to a 2-0 start for the first time in 3 years — means he’s doing something right. Fitz was able to methodically march Buffalo down the field late last week, topping off the drive with a game-winning TD pass to David Nelson, showing his leadership and presence of mind in critical situations. Buffalo has found its man at QB, and I’m a big believer as well.

Start him with confidence this week against a New England secondary that allowed Chad Henne to rack up 34 fantasy points in Week 1. Fitzpatrick is playing smart; he’s making great decisions in the pocket; and he’s playing well enough to make the Bills relevant again. Believe me when I say these past two weeks are not a fluke. I’m rolling with the hot hand this week, and you should too. After all, I nailed LeGarrette Blount’s bounce-back last week!

What can fantasy owners expect from LeGarrette Blount after his Week 1 dud?

by Cameron Dark, guest contributor

If you’re a LeGarrette Blount owner, you learned a tough lesson last week about the risk you’re taking by starting him. He rushed just 5 times for 15 yards Sunday against the Lions, and was nowhere to be found in the second half, replaced by veteran Ernest Graham. The big question: is this the production Blount owners can expect from here on out?

We all know how great he looked last year, hurdling over defenders and breaking tackles on the way to the end zone. But it’s time to face facts: Blount is slow, a bad pass-catcher, and an even worse blocker. When the Bucs were down Sunday, Blount had no part in the offense because of his deficiencies in the passing game. He disappeared from the game early and killed his fantasy owners.

However, I have hope for the future. Detroit was able to gain an early lead in the game Sunday, which made the running game a bit irrelevant from the start. I don’t see this happening this coming week as the Bucs take on the Vikings, a much less explosive offense than Detroit. Plus, Tampa Bay HC Raheem Morris has expressed regret for not using Blount more, saying, “We have a weapon in Blount, we want to be able to run the ball with him… Maybe we went to it (the two-minute offense) too early.”  It’s clear that he wants to get Blount more involved in the offense than he was Week 1, and that won’t be a hard task to achieve. Blount himself has stated that he wants more involvement in the offense and QB Josh Freeman has said Blount is ready for an increased workload. All these things point toward a positive trend in Blount’s fantasy production.

This still doesn’t change the fact Blount will be off the field in 3rd-down and two-minute situations for the time being. The Bucs have made it clear that Earnest Graham is the guy in passing situations. Tampa has more confidence in Graham right now, and rightfully so.  But they have also expressed a desire to get Blount more involved in the two-minute offense, with Morris saying, “…obviously we are going to try to get him in there a little bit more,” and Freeman saying, “…LeGarrette is a hard-working guy, and I know that he is going to find a way to become a weapon in those sorts of situations.” These are encouraging notes for the future, but don’t expect much involvement when the offense becomes fast-paced from the infamously slow Blount – at least not anytime soon.

Bottom line, Blount has a nice matchup this coming week against Minnesota.  And you should be willing to give him a second chance.  Blount will become scarily irrelevant, though, when the Bucs are playing from behind, so make sure to play your matchups well. Certainly hold onto him and don’t lose the faith, but you might want to rethink your enthusiasm a little if you were a big Blount believer heading into the season.

Drew Brees and Co. are primed for another Super Bowl run... I think.

by Jared Smola

Disclaimer: no fantasy analysis or advice here.  I just like getting my predictions down on paper so I can look back in 6 months and laugh at how wrong I was.  On that note, here we go!

AFC East

1. New England Patriots

2. New York Jets (Wild Card)

3. Miami Dolphins

4. Buffalo Bills

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

2. Baltimore Ravens (Wild Card)

3. Cleveland Browns

4. Cincinnati Bengals (and with the 1st-overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals select Stanford QB Andrew Luck)

AFC South

1. Houston Texans

2. Indianapolis Colts

3. Tennessee Titans

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers

2. Kansas City Chiefs

3. Denver Broncos

4. Oakland Raiders

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys

2. Philadelphia Eagles (Wild Card)

3. New York Giants

4. Washington Redskins

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers

2. Detroit Lions

3. Chicago Bears

4. Minnesota Vikings

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints

2. Atlanta Falcons (Wild Card)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4. Carolina Panthers

NFC West

1. St. Louis Rams

2. Arizona Cardinals

3. San Francisco 49ers

4. Seattle Seahawks

Wild Card Round:

Chargers (3) over Ravens (6)

Jets (5) over Texans (4)

Eagles (6) over Cowboys (3)

Falcons (5) over Rams (4)

Divisional Round:

Steelers (1) over Jets

Chargers over Patriots (2)

Packers (1) over Eagles

Saints (2) over Falcons

Conference Championships:

Steelers  over Chargers

Saints over Packers

Super Bowl:

Saints over Steelers

The Cardinals should provide solid fantasy production early this season

by Jared Smola

When it comes to fantasy defenses, I say screw ‘em!  They’re incredibly volatile from year-to-year, and you can almost always find a top-10 unit on the waiver wire.

That’s why we recommend waiting until one of the last couple rounds of your draft to snag a defense.  Take just one and then play the matchup game over the course of the year.

If you’re down with that strategy, here are 4 units you should be able to grab with your last pick that have favorable early-season schedules.  Rack up the fantasy points those first few weeks, and then drop the defense before its first tough opponent.  I’ll post another edition of this article around Week 5 taking a look at defenses with juicy upcoming matchups.

Listed in order of preference…

Arizona Cardinals

Week 1 – vs. Carolina

Week 2 – @ Washington

Week 3 – @ Seattle

Week 4 – vs. New York Giants

Week 5 – @ Minnesota

* DROP *

Week 6 – BYE

Week 7 – vs. Pittsburgh

Cincinnati Bengals

Week 1 – @ Cleveland

Week 2 – @ Denver

Week 3 – vs. 49ers

Week 4 – vs. Buffalo

Week 5 – @ Jacksonville

* DROP *

Week 6 – vs. Indianapolis

Tennessee Titans

Week 1 – @ Jacksonville

Week 2 – vs. Baltimore

Week 3 – vs. Denver

Week 4 – @ Cleveland

* DROP *

Week 5 – @ Pittsburgh

Oakland Raiders

Week 1 – @ Denver

Week 2 – @ Buffalo

Week 3 – vs. New York Jets

* DROP *

Week 4 – vs. New England