Donovan McNabb caught up with his ex last weekend.

By guest blogger, John Werley

The following is an email originally intended for Washington Redskins Quarterback Donovan McNabb. However, as it turns out, the “I” and “O” keys are awfully close and the sender didn’t double check the email address before hitting “Send.” “Donivan” McNabb happens to be a friend of a friend of a guy who works in our IT Department. This email was eventually passed along to us. Enjoy.

DATE: October 4, 2010 2:35 PM

FROM: LadyLibertyBell@philly.com

TO: DonivanMcNabb@yahoo.com

SUBJECT: FW: Sunday Afternoon

Dear Donovan, It was great seeing you on Sunday!

Oh hell, I’m not going to lie.

I tried to be classy, but it was a little awkward running in to you at our old stomping grounds. We have so many memories there. I guess it’s never easy running in to your “ex” when they’re with someone new, is it? It’s always awkward conversation and disingenuous smiles. Everyone trying to look their best and strut their stuff, hoping to make the other person jealous.

I think we both knew this day was inevitable. Me hanging out with fresh young studs; you all cozied up with someone new. I know that I gave your new relationship the “OK” – even though I wish you had chosen someone else. I pegged you for someone with better taste. But hey, I broke up with you. It’s the least I could do. “It’s not you, it’s me,” right?

I admit it. I wanted to go younger; I thought your best years were behind you. I didn’t think you could give me what I needed. Plus, you were getting expensive. Still, it doesn’t make it any easier to see you wearing someone else’s clothes or seeing you hanging out and sharing secrets with a new set of friends. But I do have to admit you still looked pretty good, even if I was reminded of all the reasons we broke up.

Look, I know way back in 1999 our relationship started out on the wrong foot. I was drinking a lot back then and I was interested in this Rastafarian dude named Ricky. What can I say — his dreadlocks and powerful thighs captivated me. And man, could he fill out a wedding dress.

Sigh.

But I digress. I know I didn’t make a great first impression on you. In fact, you may have gotten the sense I didn’t like you at all. I think that first night in New York it was pretty obvious I had my heart set on Ricky, and I don’t know if you ever got over it.

But over the years, you and I worked on our relationship. I didn’t give you a ton to work with at first. It must have felt like spitting into the wind trying to get things done around here. I was constantly looking over your shoulder. But you didn’t complain. You just worked hard at it and smiled. I know I said some things that hurt – some of them justified, some not. And I know I may be a little rough around the edges. But that’s part of my charm. I wear my heart on my sleeve. I show love through my passion and frustration. I expect the best out of people because that’s what I give to them in return. If you ask my favorite son Rocky, he’ll tell you I respect one thing above all else – give me maximum effort, no matter the outcome.

But we had good times throughout the years too.

Remember Arizona in ‘02? Jacksonville in ’04? All those February weekends in Hawaii? 4th and 26? Campbell Soup? Over time you won me over and I know you appreciated me no matter how frustrated we got with one another. Of course we had our problems, but you gave me hope when I hadn’t had any for decades. I would never be where I am now if it hadn’t been for you.

Now for the tough part, but I need to get this off my chest.

The thing that I always held against you was that we never went “All the Way.” You know it and I know it. Sure, there are other things in life, but that’s a feeling I’ve wanted for years. Decades. It’s what we all strive for. I know you wanted it too. We were close so many times and I know we were both left frustrated.

I even brought that Diva in to our relationship in ’04 just to appease you. It was something I hadn’t tried before, but sometimes you just have to say “What the heck,” right? We both knew that probably wasn’t going to end well, but we had to try. People do crazy things to make it all work. Such great hands on that one, even if he didn’t know when to shut up. We should have known he wouldn’t make a difference the second we found him doing sit-ups in the driveway.

The crazy thing is that just before we went our separate ways, the neighbor from across the street took me to the “Promised Land.” I didn’t really expect it, but it was wonderful in its own way. Yes, he’s a little different. He plays by his own rules. He carries a big stick, as they say. That day was everything I had hoped it would be after such a long draught. Fireworks. The whole shebang.

But you want to know a dirty little secret?

I always wanted it to be you. And while you gave it your all, when that climactic moment arrived you got a little queasy and came up short. But there’s something that I will always appreciate about you in retrospect: maximum effort. Rocky would be proud. You always put in the work. You bled for me. You brought me joy in so many ways — just not in the one way I needed most.

Donovan, we had some great times together, even if things didn’t work out in the long run. You’ll forever be a part of my history and will always have a special place in my heart. I might even say you’re the best I’ve ever had. But I think we both know that this breakup was the best thing for the two of us. Things had just gotten stagnant. You need to find your own way now and I need to move on. I hope your new beau treats you right and gives you a second lease on life. As for me, I’m going to stick with the young guns for the time being, see how things work out. Play the field.

I know you got the final dig in when I saw you on Sunday. There’s always going to be emotion when you share so much history. But I have a pretty good feeling about my future and where I’m headed. I’m as strong, tough, confident and passionate as they come. I birthed a Nation, didn’t I? And don’t worry — I’m sure we’ll be running in to each other here and there throughout the years. Whether we can be friends or not remains to be seen. Just be prepared for me to get the best of you the next time I see you.

All the best,

“Philly”

Jon Beason and the Panthers defense could be a sneaky play over the next month.

by Jared Smola

Back in August, we posted a blog called “Use ‘Em Then Lose ‘Em.”  It took a look at a few lower-level defenses that had a string of favorable matchups to start the season.  The idea was to draft one of these with your last pick, use them for a few weeks, and then dump them for another defense with a good upcoming schedule. 

With 4 weeks in the books, it’s time to find a few more squads that could provide sneaky-good production over the next month.  But first, let’s take a look at how our first set of picks did:

San Diego Chargers

Week 1 – @ Kansas City

Week 2 – vs. Jacksonville

Week 3 – @ Seattle

Week 4 – vs. Arizona

Week 5 – @ Oakland

Week 6 – @ St. Louis

* DROP *

Week 7 – vs. New England

This grade is incomplete since you can use the Chargers D for another 2 weeks.  But as of now, San Diego ranks #1 in fantasy points among defenses.  Big time hit!

Arizona Cardinals

Week 1 – @ St. Louis

Week 2 – @ Atlanta

Week 3 – vs. Oakland

* DROP *

Week 4 – @ San Diego

Through the first 3 weeks, the Cardinals ranked 20^th in fantasy points.  Not exactly what we were looking for.

St. Louis Rams

Week 1 – vs. Cardinals

Week 2 – @ Raiders

Week 3 – vs. Redskins

Week 4 – vs. Seahawks

Week 5 – @ Detroit

* DROP *

Week 6 – vs. San Diego

Another hit!  The Rams are currently sitting 9^th among defenses.  Continue to ride them this week against the Lions.

If you own the Chargers or Rams, stick with them for now.  If not, here are a few more defenses with favorable schedules the next few weeks:

Buffalo Bills

Week 5 – vs. Jaguars

Week 6 – BYE

Week 7 – @ Ravens

Week 8 – @ Chiefs

Week 9 – vs. Chicago

Week 10 – vs. Detroit

* DROP *

Week 11 – @ Cincinnati

Carolina Panthers

Week 5 – vs. Chicago

Week 6 – BYE

Week 7 – vs. 49ers

Week 8 – @ Rams

* DROP *

Week 9 – vs. Saints

Oakland Raiders

Week 5 – vs. Chargers

Week 6 – @ 49ers

Week 7 – @ Broncos

Week 8 – vs. Seahawks

Week 9 – vs. Chiefs

* DROP *

Week 10 – BYE

Seattle Seahawks

Week 5 – BYE

Week 6 – @ Bears

Week 7 – vs. Cardinals

Week 8 – @ Raiders

* DROP *

Week 9 – vs. Giants

Bills fans haven't had a whole lot to cheer about this past decade

by guest writer, Mike Pallaci

Columnist Jerry Sullivan hit it on the head in this week’s post-mortem in the Buffalo News – watching Clay Matthews make the Bills his bitch yesterday brought back memories of all the drafts they’ve f%&^ed up for the last decade.  As a passionate Bills fan (I own season tickets despite living 300 miles away), it is just painful to think about.  Here’s the track record of our first round picks, starting with 2000, through three GMs.  Notice how many stellar players we (yes, I said we – I am one of those guys) passed on in positions where we have been pathetic for the past decade – DL, OL, QB, TE, and to some degree LB:

2000:  Erik Flowers, DE, Arizona State, 26th overall.  Never started, barely saw the field.  One of the worst on this list.  Players taken after Flowers:  Keith Bulluck, LB, Titans (Syracuse – 30th overall); Mike Brown, FS, Chicago (Nebraska – 39th overall); Chad Clifton, OT, Packers (Tennessee – 44th overall).

2001:  Nate Clements, CB, Ohio State, 23rd overall.  Hard to beat them up for this one – he was good, just not as good as he thought he was.  This was the year of the 2nd rounder, so everybody missed on some guys.  But TEs Todd Heap and Alge Crumpler, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, LB Kendrell Bell and QB Drew Brees all went after Clements.  Not to mention Reggie Wayne and Chad Ochocinco.

2002:  Mike Williams, OT, Texas, 4th overall.  Started at LT, moved to RT, then to G, then to the bench, then to the waiver wire.  One of the biggest draft busts of all time.  Get ready to vomit – here’s a partial list of who we could’ve had:  OT Bryant McKinnie (7th overall to Minnesota); S Roy Williams (8th overall to Dallas); DT John Henderson (9th overall to the Jags); DE Dwight Freeney (11th overall to the Colts); DT Albert Haynesworth (15th overall to the Titans); S Ed Reed (24th overall to the Ravens); DE Charles Grant (25th overall to the Saints) – I gotta stop now.  I’m getting physically ill.

2003:  Willis McGahee, RB, Miami, 23rd overall.  Tom “The Smartest Guy in the Room” Donahoe traded down to draft a player at a position where he already had a Pro Bowler in Travis Henry despite holes all over the rest of the team (sound familiar? CJ Spiller?), despite McGahee coming off of a knee injury that would have him out for a year.  Dallas Clark went with the next pick to the Colts, William Joseph went to the Giants after that, Kwame Harris to the 49ers after that.  Hey Tom, did you really think you needed a RB that bad?  How about Larry Johnson 4 picks later?  Nnamdi Asomugha went just a few picks later, and G Eric Steinbach, a perpetual Pro Bowler, went with the first pick of the 2nd round to Cincinnati.  Oh by the way – the pick we traded out of to move down for McGahee?  Pittsburgh took Troy Polamalu.  I hear he’s done OK.

2004:  Lee Evans, WR, Wisconsin, 13th overall.  Hey, we finally hit on one.  Too bad he’s wasted because we haven’t had a QB or an OL worth a damn since then.

2004:  JP Losman, QB, Tulane, 22nd overall.  Oops – never mind.  We still managed to f%$$ up the first round in ’04 by trading the following year’s 1st rounder to move up to take this limp dick.  Remember that Karlos Dansby guy that was in on every tackle for Miami in week one?  He went to Arizona with the first pick of the 2nd round, 11 picks after Losman.  And wait til you see who we missed out on in ’05…

2005:  This was the year that Aaron Rodgers slid all the way down to #24.  And we didn’t have a first-round pick because we traded it to move up for Losman.  The Bills draft position that year?  #23.  But we needed Losman to back up Drew Bledsoe and eventually lead the franchise back to the Super Bowl.  So we missed on Aaron Rodgers.  The Bills first pick of this draft?  Roscoe Parrish.  Great punt returner.  Yippee!  By the way – Vincent Jackson went 5 picks later.  He does a little more from the WR position than return punts.  And Frank Gore 4 picks after that.  Channing Crowder 5 picks later, then Justin Tuck 4 picks after that.  I’m just sayin…

2006:  Donte Whitner, S, Ohio State, 8th overall.  Look, I like Whitner.  He’s a solid guy, a good leader, all that.  But if you draft a safety with the 8th pick in the draft, he has to be a Troy Polamalu, a Bob Sanders, an Ed Reed, a Ronnie Lott.  Whitner is an average NFL starter.  And when you look at our DL play for the past 5 years, and realize that we passed on Haloti Ngata (who went 4 picks later to Baltimore, and who I was screaming for them to take on Draft Day), you just wanna pull your hair out.

2006:  John McCargo, DT, North Carolina State, 26th overall.  Traded up for this guy.  Somehow he’s still on the roster.  Here are 6 of the next 7 picks after McCargo:  RB DeAngelo Williams, TE Mercedes Lewis, C Nick Mangold (2 Pro Bowls already, if I’m counting right), RB Joseph Addai, DE Mathias Kiwanuka, LB DeMeco Ryans.  Oy vei.

2007:  Marshawn Lynch, RB, California, 12th overall.  Just missed on Patrick Wilils here – he went the pick before Lynch.  But if we can trade up for Losman and McCargo, couldn’t we have found someone – maybe Miami, who reached for Ted Ginn at #9 – to trade with so we could move up past SF and grab a franchise LB?  Darrelle Revis went two picks later, and is now the best CB in the league.  Hard to fault them for that though – they did need a RB and CB wasn’t a position of need at that time.  And if everyone knew Revis would be that good, he wouldn’t have lasted until #13.

2008:  Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy, 11th overall.  Jury’s still out on this one.  We’ll see how he develops this year.  But Ryan Clady, a stud LT, went to Denver with the next pick.  Think he could do better than Demetrius Bell and Cornell Green, the turnstiles currently manning the OT positions for Buffalo?  Brenden Albert went at #15 to KC, not sure how he’s doing.  But Jeff Otah has been pretty good – he went #19.  Baltimore took Joe Flacco here too, but that was considered a bit of a reach.  Point:  we took a CB who is struggling to win a starting position and passed on several solid OTs, probably because we were too scared for a repeat of Mike Williams.  Great.

2009:  Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State, 11th overall.  This is the one that had me screaming at my TV set.  How in the hell do you take an undersized guy who is too small to play LB in the NFL let alone DE (Erik Flowers, anyone?) and pass on Brian Orakpo?  And no, that’s not hindsight – most of us were saying it on draft day.  Especially when you already had 2 DEs that you supposedly liked (Schobel and Kelsay) on the roster?  Don’t like Orakpo?  How about Brian Cushing, who won Defensive Rookie of the Year, at #15?  How about Clay Matthews, who just beat the hell out of us for the Packers?  He went #26.  Brandon Pettigrew just had 100 yards receiving for the Lions – he went #20.  Think he could beat out Jonathon Stupar at TE?  Michael Oher went to the Ravens, Jeremy Maclin to the Eagles, Percy Harvin to the Vikings – I wouldn’t have taken any of those last few guys at #11, but Maybin is a stiff.  He is Erik Flowers re-visited.

2009:  Eric Wood, C, Lousiville, 28th overall.  Traded up for him.  He’s playing pretty well, when he could keep his bones in one piece and contained under his skin.  At least we got a lineman.  Jarius Byrd in the 2nd is looking pretty good too.

2010:  CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson, 9th overall.  The following people who we passed on at positions of need better turn out to suck (I made this list on draft day because I was so disgusted with our draft): 

QB Jimmy Clausen, OTs Anthony Davis and Bryan Bulaga, DT Dan Williams, DE Derrick Morgan.

There it is.  This is why we suck.  We draft Aaron Maybin and Erik Flowers, and pass on Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews and Brian Cushing.  We draft corners and WRs and pass on All-Pro OTs.  We trade up for John McCargo and JP Losman and miss out on Aaron Rodgers.  We pass on Troy Polamalu to move down to take Willis McGahee when we already have Travis Henry.  No thanks, Haloti Ngata – we’ll take Donte Whitner. 

As if Bills Nation wasn’t depressed enough.

C.J. Spiller was one of the bigger disappointments of Week 1.

Monday Night LAP Dance
Leonard A. Pappano
September 13, 2010

** After watching Calvin Johnson’s obviously-a-TD-catch-to-anyone-in-his-40s, the NFL needs to revamp its rules. Back in the day, a catch was a catch. Just check out Butch Johnson’s iconic TD catch from Super Bowl XII to appreciate how ridiculous the rules have gotten. Now a receiver has to control the ball until his next visit to the men’s room. Sorry but I’m under the impression that the league’s rules have been heavily influenced in recent years by a group of unemployed attorneys: The tuck rule. The you-have-to-control-the-ball-till-your-next-trip-to-the-men’s-room rule. And my favorite from a few years ago – if a receiver WOULD have come down in bounds had the DB not knocked him out of bounds — it’s a catch. Who the hell thought of that one? Here’s a simple thought for commissioner Goodell. If you have to trot out Mike Pereira on the NFL Network every week to explain the rules, the rules are too complicated.

** The biggest disappointment this weekend was Bills RB CJ Spiller – especially after I drafted him in the 5th round in Saturday’s WCOFF Main Event draft. That said, it might not be a bad time to trade for him. Even on a terrible team, he will be the cream that rises to the top in the coming weeks. And likely post some big games.

** After flirting with the idea of taking WR Andre Johnson as the top pick in one of my high-stakes leagues, I went with Chris Johnson in both. In the FFPC, I managed to grab Javon Ringer in the later rounds, but missed him by 4 picks in the WCOFF.

** While in Vegas for the FFPC and the WCOFF, I witnessed something extraordinary from my friend, founder of Fantasy Sports Publications, and WCOFF co-founder, Emil Kadlec: He entered the FFPC’s “Bareknuckle Challenge,” which forced participants to draft with no cheat sheet, no phone, no assistance of any kind beyond looking at a draft board — and only 30 seconds to pick. In and of itself, this is quite a handicap — as many of the participants stumbled by reaching for players, or by drafting players who were long gone. But Emil took it one step further. He drafted BLINDFOLDED!  In fact, I was so taken by it that I thought maybe he could see through the blindfold somehow. Well, he insisted that I try out the blindfold for myself, and I couldn’t see a thing. So Emil drafted 26 rounds blindfolded without any assistance of any kind. Pretty damn impressive. And folks, don’t try this at home. Emil is a trained professional! Below is his team from the 7th spot:

Randy Moss
DeSean Jackson
Ryan Grant
Ronnie Brown
Matt Schaub
Chris Cooley
Knowshon Moreno
Justin Forsett
Robert Meachem
Mike Williams (Sea)
Mohamed Massaquoi
Tony Scheffler
Matt Moore
Matt Hasselbeck
Todd Heap
Laurence Maroney
Julian Edelman
Bengals Def
Dolphins Def
Redskins Def
David Buehler
Ryan Succop
Mark Clayton
Graham Gano
Brandon Lloyd
Toby Gerhart

** When we named Arian Foster as one of our sleepers this summer, we weren’t envisioning his killer performance yesterday. His 231 yards were second most on opening weekend in NFL history. (OJ Simpson galloped his way to 250 yards in 1973). Gotta figure Foster as a top-10 RB when we do our Rest of Way Rankings tomorrow. Not only did he run like a latter day Terrell Davis, but his O-line crushed the Colts.

** It’s early, but our boy Miles Austin is looking real good already. We ranked him #2 at WR in our preseason projections, and we wouldn’t be surprised if he finished atop the WR heap when all is said and done this year. He looked dominant on his way to 10 catches for 146 yards and a TD in the season opener. Even more impressive is the fact that he did it on just 11 targets. That’s right — 10 of the 11 balls that went Austin’s way were completed. His chemistry with QB Tony Romo is uncanny. Hopefully you were able to scoop this guy up in the 1st or 2nd-round of your draft.

** As part of our Weekly Rankings, we highlight a few “Sneaky Starters” at each position. These are guys that usually ride your pine, but we think could be solid starts based on trends, matchups, etc. We hit on quite a few of our “Sneaky Starters” in Week 1.

Tim Hightower – we gave him the “Sneaky Starter” tagged and ranked him 23rd among RBs. Hightower finished with 94 total yards and 1 TD. We had him projected for 90 total yards and .5 TDs.

Devery Henderson – We liked Henderson’s big-play ability against a banged-up Vikings secondary on Thursday night. And he came through with a 29-yard TD on New Orleans’ opening possession.

Mohamed Massaquoi – It would have taken some serious balls to roll with this “Sneaky Starter” in Week 1. But if you did, you were rewarded with a solid 46-yard, 1-TD performance.

Of course, we also missed on a few “Sneaky Starters,” like Matt Stafford and Louis Murphy. These guys aren’t necessarily safe plays, but they tend to pay off more often than not.

** In case you were wondering, yes, we do openly root for our First Round Bust candidates to get injured every year. Steven Jackson would look great on crutches by the end of the month. We’d even settle for an in-season suspension of any kind. Well, maybe not for rape or some form of abuse. We do have personal standards, as low as they may be.

** True story: While in Vegas, the head of another site had a subscriber call to ask if they should start “Santonio Hines” on Sunday. I’m happy to say that although I’m a certified half wit, we have a better breed of customers than any other fantasy football site. No one asking us about “Santonio Hines” this weekend. With that said, it’s not too late to join us for our Draft Sharks regular season service. Just click here to get started! We’ll help you out with weekly player rankings, sneaky starters, free agent pick-ups, fantasy vision write-ups, plus all the analysis you need to win a championship in 2010!

** It was great to see the real Michael Vick return to the NFL yesterday. He slashed through a very good Packers D for 103 yards on 11 carries. Vick nearly rallied his team from a 20-3 deficit in the second half. With the concussed Kevin Kolb still clearing out cobwebs, the Eagles might have a bona fide QB controversy.

** Thank you to the dozens of people who emailed me tips for hiking “The Narrows” slot canyon in Zion National Park. My buddy and I did it last week and it was one of the most amazing hikes I’ve ever done. As a side note, we rented a house in Virgin UT and were – intrigued is a good word – by the lights on the hills behind us. Part of the hill illuminated for 5-10 seconds each night we were there, but there was no light source that we could see – and no roads or houses close to the hill. When we asked a local about it, he said, “Oh, you’ll see all kinds of crazy stuff around here at night.”

Finley gets some excellent matchup against divisional rivals

by guest writer, Jack Decker

One doesn’t need to look far to see that the NFC is stacked with TE talent.  The NFC East has Jason Witten, Brent Celek, Chris Cooley, and Kevin Boss.  The NFC South has Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, and Kellen Winslow.  Even the NFC West has two budding stars in Vernon Davis and John Carlson. 

While the NFC North has its fair share of talent at the TE position, the real secret to their fantasy success hinges on the defenses of the division itself.  The NFC North was the worst TE defending division in football, with all four teams falling outside of the top-20 in points allowed.  Take a look at the numbers surrendered to opposing TE’s by NFC North teams in ‘09:

*league worst

While the statistical correlation of strength of schedule isn’t strong from season to season, you can feel confident that these defenses will be in the bottom half of the league with respect to TE scoring again in 2010.  With any of the TE’s in this division meeting a subpar defense at least six times –just over 40% of the regular season fantasy schedule– there will be plenty of opportunity for the names below to give you value at the position, from the early rounds as a top tier choice, to recommended bye week fillers that will often be available on your mid-season waiver wire.

Jermichael Finley (ADP – 5.01)  Let’s see.  The guy plays for an emerging offensive juggernaut.  He’s young, athletic, and has been taking snaps from the slot position.  If football were a game of Texas Hold Em poker, Finley would be a Royal Flush.  His last seven games had him on a torrid pace — projected over the course of a 16 game season to be a 1,000-yard, 10-TD producer.  Finley carries a hefty 5^th-round asking price, but if you are considering taking a TE early, use a selection on the Pro-Bowler-to-be after a few other of the big-name TEs have been taken.

Visanthe Shiancoe (9.04)  The return of Favre (did he ever leave?) makes Shiancoe an instant value, and good bet to score 8+ TDs.  Sure, the loss of Sidney Rice will probably mean some more defensive attention, but let’s face it, defenses will always have their hands full with Adrian Peterson.  In fact, the tenderness of Favre’s surgically-repaired ankle means that quick passes to Shiancoe.  It’s not inconceivable that the 7^th-year pro could lead the team in any receiving category this season.    

Brandon Pettigrew (13.01)  Word out of Detroit is that the Lions will employ a 2-TE set with Pettigrew seeing most of the blocking duties.  While this news, coupled with his return from offseason ACL reconstruction, puts a serious damper on a sophomore breakout campaign, it will be hard to keep the play-making man-child off the field during the second half of the season.  With contests against Chi, GB, TB, MIA, and MIN (the 24^th, 22^nd, 21^st, 23^rd, and 28^th ranked defenses against TEs) to close the season, Pettigrew could turn into the kind of player that wins some fantasy games down the stretch.  His 13^th-round price tag also makes him an excellent keeper option.

Greg Olsen (13.05)  We’ve all heard it before.  Mike Martz doesn’t utilize his TEs.  He’d rather just toss another speedy wideout on the field.  But while his history of using TEs is plain to see, we know that after a slow start, Cutler and Olsen developed a nice rapport by season’s end.  And while Martz is arrogant, he has to know that he has a viable weapon in his TE.  While it would be too risky to endorse Olsen as a starting option, he is still worth stashing as a second option with upside.  And should Martz show a willingness to use Olsen as more than just a blocker, he has a juicy Week 16 matchup against the Vikings and their 28^th-rated TE defense of a year ago.   

Tony Scheffler (14.01) The news that Scheffler has secured the starting TE spot is plenty encouraging for a guy who could see plenty of looks on an upstart offense.  While Detroit did well to upgrade at the second WR position this season, they still don’t have a credible slot receiver.  For Scheffler, this could mean an increase of snaps and targets.  Scheffler will be lining up with the likes of Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, and Javhid Best, so opposing defenses will have plenty to think about besides the TE position.  If Tony can hold off Brandon Pettigrew, he represents an excellent late-round flyer that could post low TE1 totals.

Calvin Johnson is a monster in the red zone

by guest writer, Jack Decker

Andre Johnson is the first WR since Jerry Rice to lead the position in fantasy scoring in back-to-back seasons. And rightly so, Andre is the first WR taken in virtually every single fantasy draft. Andre 3000 is the real deal, no doubt, and is basically a lock to finish as a top-5 WR.  But it’s just too difficult to stay atop the NFL ranks for an extended period of time, regardless of talent level. While Andre is every bit as gifted as Jerry Rice, there are other receivers with as much talent as the Texans All-Pro.  I think there will be a new WR to finish as fantasy’s No. 1 scorer this season.  And his name is Calvin Johnson.  Here are five reasons Calvin will out-produce Andre in 2010:

1. He’s a Freak – At 6′5, 236 pounds, Calvin is an inch taller than Randy Moss and has twenty pounds on the aforementioned Andre Johnson. His 40-yard dash time at the Combine was 4.35, or just seven hundredths of a second slower than the fastest 40-time EVER recorded by a wide receiver. That means he’s barely slower than speedsters who go 5’11, 180 pounds. His nickname “Megatron” was bestowed upon him by Roy Williams because of his enormous hands.  Johnson is able to rely on his unique blend of size, strength, speed, and leaping ability to beat defenders in a variety of ways.  He is the most awesome physical specimen we have seen at the wide receiver position, plain and simple. But enough hyperbole. Let’s talk numbers.

2. QB Consistency – Johnson was fed 136 targets in just 13 1/4 games in 2009. Over a full season that equates to 164 targets, just 7 behind, you guessed it, Andre Johnson. But while All-Pro Matt Schaub and AJ hooked up for 59% of targets received, Calvin caught a paltry 49% of passes thrown his way. Why? Well, Calvin was taking throws from three different QB’s that included rookie Matthew Stafford, an over-the-hill Dante Culpepper, and Drew Stanton — who in six career starts has a passer rating of 32 and a 1:6 TD to INT ratio. Ouch! Calvin endured 4 games in ‘09 where two QB’s played part of each game.  And he’s caught passes from a carousel of 6 different QBs during his 3 years in Detroit.  His stats from ‘09 (46 catches, 728 yards, 3 TDs with Stafford / 21 catches, 252 yards, 2 TDs without) indicate the stability of having his preferred QB under center for a full season will generate WR1 totals. It’s also true that when young QB-WR duos are paired up in the NFL and are given a full pre-season of work together, good things happen. Don’t be surprised if Stafford to Johnson becomes the next Aikman to Irvin or Manning to Harrison.

3. Supporting Cast – The additions of WR Nate Burleson (free agency), TE Tony Scheffler (trade), and rookie RB Jahvid Best (draft) won’t stop teams from double-teaming Calvin. But hey, at least they won’t be able to triple team him as has been the case in the past. Less defensive attention could easily produce an uptick in percentage of targets caught, to say 52% — good enough for 80 receptions for Calvin. While the presence of proven receivers and an upstart rookie RB may cause some to suggest a downturn in targets is likely for Megatron, the opposite may turn out to be true. An upstart offense that will get better as the weeks go on, Detroit will find that the more they move the football as a unit the more chances Johnson will get to receive passes. This will correlate nicely with an uptick in….

4. Red Zone Looks – Improvement from the entire Lions offense will translate into more trips into their opponents’ red zone. As Lions beat writer Tom Kowalski reported this summer, the coaching staff seems to recognize where the team should go with the football once they get there:

“The Lions are going to (Calvin) a lot in the red zone, and he’s coming through almost every time. The best part is that the Lions aren’t simply throwing fades to him, they’re using him on an assortment of routes so a corner and/or a double team can’t anticipate what’s coming.”

In his first 3 seasons, Calvin has totaled just 7 receptions when the ball is snapped from inside the opponents’ 10-yard line.  6 of the 7 have gone for scores. With a variety of looks designed to keep defenses honest, it isn’t a stretch to predict a Fitzgerald-esque 10 red zone TDs for Johnson this year.  Fitzgerald scored that very number in 2009 on 14 receptions – a reachable number for Calvin if the Lions commit to their best player from inside the 20.

5. Schedule – It is very difficult to predict how defenses will perform from season to season given the nature of the NFL. But the link is more about the “where” and “when” of the schedule than who the Lions play. Johnson much prefers the friendly track of a turf field to do his scoring. In his 3 years in the league, Johnson has scored 15 of his 21 TDs on turf with two-thirds of his scores coming in domed arenas. 2010 will also see an interesting schedule that has the lions playing no games in the elements during the harsh winters of the North and Northeast. Take a look at the Lions schedule of outdoor games in 2010:

@ Chicago – September 12

@ Green Bay – October 3

@ New York Giants – October 17

@Buffalo – November 14

@Tampa Bay – December 19

@Miami – December 26

Soldier Field in the mid-seventies, Lambeau and the Meadowlands before Halloween, and Buffalo before the second week in November?  Then two weeks in Florida to close the season??  Wow!  It’s entirely possible that the Lions will never experience temperatures below 40 degrees the whole season! In fact, the only game against a force of nature comes in the Lions Week 9 contest against the New York Jets and all-world cornerback Darelle Revis, who remains a holdout from team activities.

Right now the assumption in fantasy football is that Andre Johnson will finish the year as the # 1 WR in fantasy football.  He won’t. Calvin Johnson has the best chance to steal the crown already engraved with Andre’s name. Go ahead and take Megatron as the 2^nd WR drafted in any fantasy format.  And don’t be surprised when it’s the last time he’s associated with the #2 this year.  But don’t thank me for recommending him to you.  Thank yourself for recognizing that there is more to the fantasy football game than meets the eye.

Don't worry about Maurice Jones-Drew's poor 2010 preseason.

by Jared Smola

What can we learn from preseason action?

It’s an interesting question, and one that doesn’t have a clear-cut answer. 

Some people will say to put absolutely zero stock into preseason games.  They’ll point out that teams are running base offenses and vanilla defenses, not wanting to tip their hand to the rest of the league.  Plus, the veterans who are entrenched in the starting lineup are really just going through the motions.

But others will argue that this is the best chance we get to see how players look in live action before the season starts.  And coaches need to know what they have in younger guys, so they’re going to give them their shots.

I come in somewhere down the middle.

But what do the numbers say?  Let’s take a look at the top performers from the 2009 preseason and then how they did when the games started to count…

QBs

Todd Bouman – He led all preseason passers with 485 yards for the Jaguars.  Bouman was released by Jacksonville prior to Week 1.  What does a guy have to do to earn a job in this league?!

A.J. Feeley – As an Eagle, he racked up 350 yards passing in 3 preseason games.  But like Bouman, Feeley was released prior to the season opener.  He caught on a few weeks later with the Panthers, but didn’t appear in a single contest.

Joey Harrington – With the Saints, Harrington threw for 244 yards in the preseason.  But like the two guys who threw for more yards, he was released and didn’t play during the regular season.

RBs

Tyrell Sutton – He was busy in the preseason with the Packers, racking up 191 rushing yards on 40 carries.  After being release by Green Bay and scooped up by Carolina, Sutton totaled just 12 carries for 68 yards when the games actually counted.

Gartrell Johnson – the Chargers rookie finished the ’09 preseason with 184 yards on 48 carries.  But he ended up playing the season as a Giant and received just 13 carries.

Aveion Cason – He finished 3^rd in the NFL with 91 rushing yards during last year’s preseason.  He was released prior to Week 1 and didn’t see the field the entire season.

WRs/TEs

Leonard Pope – That’s right.  A TE led the league in receiving yards last preseason.  Pope racked up 100 yards on 6 catches but was subsequently released by the Cardinals.  He landed in Kansas City and finished the 2009 season with 20 catches for 174 yards.

Jayson Foster – This 5’7 jitterbug recorded 5 catches for 95 yards, including a 64-yarder in the preseason opener.  But not surprisingly, he was cut and didn’t play in the regular season.

Ashley Lelie – Talk about a blast from the past.  Lelie showcased some of that trademark speed during the ’09 preseason, tallying 5 catches for 95 yards in just 2 preseason games with the Chiefs.  But he was released prior to Week 1 and garnered no interest on the open market.

Clearly, success in the preseason doesn’t translate to any sort of value when the games actually matter.  This doesn’t bode well for guys like Luke McCown, Joique Bell, and Victor Cruz, who are all tearing up the preseason this year.

But how about guys who ended up exploding during the 2009 season?  Did they some any signs of combustibility during preseason action?  Let’s take a look…

QBs

Aaron Rodgers – A-rodg completed a ridiculous 70.7% of his passes for 465 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs in last year’s preseason action.  Yeah… he was already feeling it.

Drew Brees – Brees played sparingly, but completed 29 of his 40 attempts for 354 yards and 4 scores.  Like Rodgers, he was already in midseason form.

Matt Schaub – He completed 75.7% of his passes for 275 yards in 3 games.  But he only threw 1 TD.  Still, it’s clear Schaub was already in rhythm.

RBs

Chris Johnson – Johnson averaged just 3.1 yards per carry with 1 TD in 4 preseason games.  Then he popped off 2,006 rushing yards with 16 total TDs in the regular season.

Adrian Peterson – AP racked up 181 yards in 3 preseason games, including an 11-carry, 117-yard effort in Week 3.

Maurice Jones-Drew – MJD managed only 29 yards on 10 carries last preseason.  But he flipped the switch as soon as the games started to count, amassing over 1,700 total yards with 16 TDs.

WRs

Andre Johnson – He caught just 8 passes for 114 yards in 3 preseason games.  AJ went on to post his 2^nd-straight 1,500-yard season.

Randy Moss – Moss caught 9 balls for 114 yards in 2 preseason contests.  In the 3^rd game, he went off for 90 yards and 2 scores.

Miles Austin – He finished the preseason with just 3 catches for 44 yards – another reason he was completely off the fantasy radar.

There’s not much correlation between preseason performance and regular season performance among these guys. 

If anything, it looks like we want to see QBs completing a high percentage of their passes.  That’s not good news for Donovan McNabb and Jason Campbell, who are both hitting on less than 55% of their attempts. 

And if anyone’s worrying about Maurice Jones-Drew’s poor 2010 preseason (6 carries, -2 yards)… don’t!  He wasn’t much better in ’09 exhibition games but still had a big year.

How valuable is Turner in PPR formats?

When it comes to player rankings, even a fairly slight difference of opinion on a player can significantly alter his draft position. In this case, although neither side dislikes Michael Turner (what’s to dislike?), a difference of just a few spots in his ranking among PPR running backs turns him from a first-round pick for RapidDraft.com’s Matt Schauf to a late second-rounder in the format for DraftSharks.com’s Jared Smola. Here, Schauf and Smola square off on Turner’s PPR placement.

Schauf: I know that opinions on Michael Turner tend to vary quite a bit, especially when you look at things through the point-per-reception scope. I also know that you guys seem to have Turner quarantined at the end of Round 2 (which might as well be Round 5, since it’s highly unlikely you’ll get him at that point). Before I get into why you’re wrong, can you tell me exactly what you don’t like about him? Is it all those pesky touchdowns? The ascending offense? The nickname?

Smola: Let’s be clear: We love Turner. The dude’s built like a Mack Truck, runs with authority, and actually has sneaky speed for a 5’10, 244-pounder. But man-crushes aside, he’s perpetually overvalued in PPR formats. His career-high in catches is 6. Let me repeat that. His career-high in catches is 6! That’s a lot of points you’re missing out on in PPR leagues. If you’re comparing him to a guy at a similar ADP who’s going to catch 30 or 40 balls — say Rashard Mendenhall, for example — Turner is already behind by 30 or so points right off the bat. And that’s not even counting the yards he’s missing out on in the passing game. So, Mr. Schauf, tell us why we’re wrong …

Schauf: I was rowing in the same boat heading into last year, and then I watched Turner start what was considered a disappointing season with 10 touchdowns in his first eight games. (If it would help, I can repeat that.) That gave him 27 rushing scores through his first 24 games as a starter. One can point to the huge number of carries in 2008 and say the Falcons won’t let him approach that level again, thus fewer touchdowns lie ahead. Well, he was on pace for just 312 rushes through the first (injury-free) half of last year. All of Turner’s scoring has also come in an offense that ranked a mere 10^th and 13^th in points in his two seasons. The continued growth of Matt Ryan can only help the whole offense, which means potential for growth in scoring chances. Even without those receptions and the accompanying yardage, Turner came in fourth among PPR backs in 2008 and ranked seventh (at least in RapidDraft scoring) through Week 9 last season.

Smola: “Just” 312 rushes?? That’s quite a workload. In fact, it would have ranked him 5th in the entire NFL last season. That being said, I’m not buying the whole “we’re gonna take it easy on this guy” spiel from the Falcons. We currently have Turner slotted for a workmanlike 298 carries. Over the last 2 seasons, he scored an average of once every 20.5 carries. At that pace — and with the workload we have him projected for — that’d give him 14 scores. Now I think that’s a bit high, but it’s definitely not out of reach. So let’s give him 14 scores. It’s still not enough to make up for his complete lack of production in the passing game. Guys I’d take ahead of Turner — Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, and even Pierre Thomas — are good for anywhere between 7-10 scores. The 30+ catches and 200+ receiving yards they’ll outperform Turner by more than make up for the 25-40 fantasy points they fall behind in the TD department.

And that brings me to my next point: We actually have Turner ranked a respectable 11th among RBs in PPR formats. The reason we see him as a late-2nd-round value is because we’re going WR-heavy after the first 5 or 6 backs are off the board. Guys like Miles Austin, Calvin Johnson and Roddy White will all accrue more fantasy points than Turner thanks to their 70-90 catches. Again, we have nothing against Turner. The value just isn’t there in PPR leagues.

Schauf: I certainly don’t mean to downplay 312 carries. It’s clearly a workhorse total, and Turner is clearly a workhorse. That helps to add value beyond the raw numbers. It’s clear that our disagreement on Turner is a matter of workload and productivity. I think the only way Turner falls short of 300 attempts is if he gets hurt again. I also think 14 touchdowns is more like his floor for a full season than a high expectation. Turner has been good for more than a touchdown per game in each of his starting seasons so far (ignoring the three part-games late last year when he left one early and then was foolishly trotted out for two others on a sprained ankle). Take out those three games, and his rate jumps to a touchdown after 19.7 carries. Even over 310 attempts, that comes to about 16 for the year — which, at the least, is a realistic expectation. Including the 2008 playoffs, Turner has also scored in 15 of the past 17 games he started and finished. That makes him at least as good a bet to find the end zone every week as any other runner in the league. Even with Brett Favre around last season to boost the offense, Adrian Peterson managed four scoreless outings.

Turner sports a career 4.9-yard average per carry as well and has slimmed back down after admittedly heading into 2009 too heavy. Modest projections of 310 rushes and a 4.6 average would give him more rushing yards than anyone other than Chris Johnson had last year. I’m with you on a group of receivers building the separation between late-first and late-second runners, but Turner has twice shown us that his yardage and touchdowns can make up for receiving deficiencies and put him in the top 10 (even top five) at his position. His scoring consistency also makes him much safer than any of the three backs you mentioned above, a factor that has to be considered in Round 1. If we’re to believe the notion that the Falcons want to get him more involved as a receiver, that would merely be icing on this cake.

Smola: I can’t necessarily argue with his upside since he did record a 1,700-yard, 17-TD season back in 2008. But let’s also remember that Turner posted those numbers with a rookie QB under center who only attempted 434 passes (18^th in the NFL). Turner carried the ball a whopping 376 times that year! I think we can agree that the Falcons will open up the offense a bit more in Matt Ryan’s 3^rd season, especially with an underrated group of WRs in Roddy White, Michael Jenkins and Harry Douglas, plus a future Hall of Fame TE in Tony Gonzalez.

More pass attempts means fewer carries for Turner — I’m able to figure that one out thanks to my college education! And for a RB who doesn’t catch passes, it becomes a slippery slope when his role in the running game starts to dwindle. 300-310 carries sounds about right for Turner this year. But that won’t be nearly enough for him to post the 1,700 yards and 17 TDs he had in 2008 — thanks in large part to that massive workload. As for getting Turner more involved in the passing game… I’ll believe it when I see it! Just remember — “his career-high in catches is 6.”

Schauf: Yep. It comes down to our difference in likely touchdowns — and, to a slightly lesser degree, yards — so we’ll just have to see who’s right. (For what it’s worth, Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson enjoyed terrific TD rates in balanced offenses last season.) My placement of Turner in the first round just means I’ll be watching him on some of my PPR rosters, whereas you guys probably won’t if waiting until the end of Round 2. These are the differences that make draft season interesting.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com. Challenge him and the DraftSharks.com experts in free fantasy football anytime at RapidDraft.com, with a guaranteed $100,000 grand prize.

Jared Smola is the Senior Editor for DraftSharks.com.  Check out Draft Sharks for top-notch analysis and all the tools you need to dominate your league.

Gresham has the talent to make an impact in Year 1.

by guest writer, Bill Phillips

When you enter your fantasy draft this year, the biggest unknowns are the rookies, especially those in the less glamorous positions.  The bottom of a draft is a bit like sitting at a Texas Hold’em poker table for the first time.  You have no idea how the rest of the table plays and no idea if the guy to your left is Phil Ivey or the sucker at the table.  You do know two things — you don’t want to draft the sucker pick and you want to avoid being the sucker at your fantasy draft by picking the guy that won’t even take a snap this year.  Your league may not draft deep enough to select too many rookie TEs, but here’s a look at the top of the class this year and why you should keep an eye on these three guys.

ROYAL FLUSH DRAW – Even a few years removed from their last Super Bowl victory, the royalty in the NFL is still its last dynasty — and that’s the New England Patriots.  Their draft choice, Rob Gronkowski, comes into a team that has an opening for him and an offense and a QB that like to get the ball to a TE.  Gronkowski is 6’6 with very good hands and will make an alluring target for Tom Brady.  Ben Watson and Chris Baker’s departures mean that Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Alge Crumpler will be fighting it out for the starting spot.  And Gronkowski, the second TE drafted this year, has the ability to win the starting spot.   Just ask Mike Vrabel if Tom Brady likes big targets in the red zone.

FULL HOUSE – In general, one thing you don’t want to do is take a TE, or any player for that matter, with an All Pro veteran ahead of him on the depth chart.  However, with Todd Heap we’ll make an exception. We think Ed Dickson, the 3^rd-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens, is somebody you should monitor on the waiver wire.  Heap battled minor injuries last year, had a resurgence the year before, but that followed up a few years of disappointments and injuries.  Heap’s Pro Bowl and All Pro years are from the early 2000s (2002, 2003). And though his QB and offensive system is becoming pass-happy, there is some wear and tear on Heap’s tires. 

So, there may be a great opportunity for Dickson.  If Heap goes down, pluck the former Oregon Duck off the waivers.  His sub 4.7 40-speed and good hands means he can get open and make catches.  It also means once he gets in there Heap may not be able to get him off the field.  QB Joe Flacco will appreciate his good route running and will likely find Dickson. 

INSIDE STRAIGHT – The player that should be at the top of this list, because he was first on draft day, is Bengals TE Jermaine Gresham.  The Bengals have a big hole in the offense and that’s down the middle of their field.  Like the second TE drafted (Gronkowski), Gresham sat out all of the 2009 season.  Unlike Gronkowski, Gresham’s injury was to his knee.  He already had speed questions, so it’s a dicey body part to rehab.  What Gresham has in spades is size, skill, and hands.  That’ll make him a good target… if he can get open.

Some like to compare Gresham to Antonio Gates, but let’s see how the knee does before penciling in the big pass-catcher as a future All Pro.  There is room for Gresham on the depth chart to get snaps, but the Bengals typically like to throw to their receivers, Chad Ochocinco et al, so Gresham’s red zone utility may be less.  Granted, if Gresham starts from day one — and Gronkowski doesn’t win the starting spot from Crumpler and Heap doesn’t get hurt — Gresham by default is the number one rookie TE.  Still, upside-wise, you have to think the other two have the potential to get you bigger numbers even though Gresham may be the safer pick.  You shouldn’t be looking for safer picks at the bottom of your draft or off the waiver wire.

Westbrook could still be a valuable 3rd-down back.

by Kevin English

With T.O. off the market, Brian Westbrook becomes the last big-name free agent available.

But which uniform will the long-time Eagle be donning in 2010?

Let’s take a look at the teams that have openly expressed an interest in landing Westy:

St. Louis: The Rams are one of two teams that have come out and said that they’re interested in Westbrook’s services this offseason.  And just last week, HC Steve Spagnuolo noted that he was “hopeful” the 30-year-old would join his squad.  The move would make some sense, with a rookie QB and a quickly deteriorating RB in Steven Jackson headlining the offense.  Westbrook has said he wants to play for a contender, but with limited options available, he might not have a choice. 

Washington: Skins HC Mike Shanahan said last week the “door has not closed” with regards to signing Westbrook.  That’s really not a shocking development, considering Shanny has never “closed the door” on any RB.  While it’s hard to picture how he’d fit into their backfield puzzle, Westbrook would at least have a better shot at significant playing time in Washington than he would in St. Louis.  

Denver: The Broncos appeared set to enter 2010 with Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter atop their depth chart.  But after Moreno’s recent hamstring injury – that’ll force him out of 3 weeks of action – the Broncos might want some extra veteran insurance.   And as a quick, nimble back, Westbrook would be an ideal fit for Denver’s zone blocking scheme.  Just as long as he’s healthy.  

Here are a couple of other teams that I believe would improve by adding Westbrook to their roster:

Tennessee: The Titans have an obvious all-world runner in Chris Johnson.  But what about after him?  With unproven youngsters like Javon Ringer, LeGarrette Blount, and Stafon Johnson in the backfield mix, Westbrook would be a solid addition for the contending Titans.  The grizzled veteran could provide some veteran leadership as well.

New England: The Pats love taking a chance on experienced players.  From Corey Dillon in 2004, to Torry Holt this year, they’ve never been shy about taking a flyer on a guy that’s past his prime.  With an underwhelming backfield featuring Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and Fred Taylor, why not bring the former Villanova star to Foxborough?  If Westbrook checks out healthy, he could become a valuable asset in the Pats’ RB merry-go-round.