Bills fans haven't had a whole lot to cheer about this past decade

by guest writer, Mike Pallaci

Columnist Jerry Sullivan hit it on the head in this week’s post-mortem in the Buffalo News – watching Clay Matthews make the Bills his bitch yesterday brought back memories of all the drafts they’ve f%&^ed up for the last decade.  As a passionate Bills fan (I own season tickets despite living 300 miles away), it is just painful to think about.  Here’s the track record of our first round picks, starting with 2000, through three GMs.  Notice how many stellar players we (yes, I said we – I am one of those guys) passed on in positions where we have been pathetic for the past decade – DL, OL, QB, TE, and to some degree LB:

2000:  Erik Flowers, DE, Arizona State, 26th overall.  Never started, barely saw the field.  One of the worst on this list.  Players taken after Flowers:  Keith Bulluck, LB, Titans (Syracuse – 30th overall); Mike Brown, FS, Chicago (Nebraska – 39th overall); Chad Clifton, OT, Packers (Tennessee – 44th overall).

2001:  Nate Clements, CB, Ohio State, 23rd overall.  Hard to beat them up for this one – he was good, just not as good as he thought he was.  This was the year of the 2nd rounder, so everybody missed on some guys.  But TEs Todd Heap and Alge Crumpler, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, LB Kendrell Bell and QB Drew Brees all went after Clements.  Not to mention Reggie Wayne and Chad Ochocinco.

2002:  Mike Williams, OT, Texas, 4th overall.  Started at LT, moved to RT, then to G, then to the bench, then to the waiver wire.  One of the biggest draft busts of all time.  Get ready to vomit – here’s a partial list of who we could’ve had:  OT Bryant McKinnie (7th overall to Minnesota); S Roy Williams (8th overall to Dallas); DT John Henderson (9th overall to the Jags); DE Dwight Freeney (11th overall to the Colts); DT Albert Haynesworth (15th overall to the Titans); S Ed Reed (24th overall to the Ravens); DE Charles Grant (25th overall to the Saints) – I gotta stop now.  I’m getting physically ill.

2003:  Willis McGahee, RB, Miami, 23rd overall.  Tom “The Smartest Guy in the Room” Donahoe traded down to draft a player at a position where he already had a Pro Bowler in Travis Henry despite holes all over the rest of the team (sound familiar? CJ Spiller?), despite McGahee coming off of a knee injury that would have him out for a year.  Dallas Clark went with the next pick to the Colts, William Joseph went to the Giants after that, Kwame Harris to the 49ers after that.  Hey Tom, did you really think you needed a RB that bad?  How about Larry Johnson 4 picks later?  Nnamdi Asomugha went just a few picks later, and G Eric Steinbach, a perpetual Pro Bowler, went with the first pick of the 2nd round to Cincinnati.  Oh by the way – the pick we traded out of to move down for McGahee?  Pittsburgh took Troy Polamalu.  I hear he’s done OK.

2004:  Lee Evans, WR, Wisconsin, 13th overall.  Hey, we finally hit on one.  Too bad he’s wasted because we haven’t had a QB or an OL worth a damn since then.

2004:  JP Losman, QB, Tulane, 22nd overall.  Oops – never mind.  We still managed to f%$$ up the first round in ’04 by trading the following year’s 1st rounder to move up to take this limp dick.  Remember that Karlos Dansby guy that was in on every tackle for Miami in week one?  He went to Arizona with the first pick of the 2nd round, 11 picks after Losman.  And wait til you see who we missed out on in ’05…

2005:  This was the year that Aaron Rodgers slid all the way down to #24.  And we didn’t have a first-round pick because we traded it to move up for Losman.  The Bills draft position that year?  #23.  But we needed Losman to back up Drew Bledsoe and eventually lead the franchise back to the Super Bowl.  So we missed on Aaron Rodgers.  The Bills first pick of this draft?  Roscoe Parrish.  Great punt returner.  Yippee!  By the way – Vincent Jackson went 5 picks later.  He does a little more from the WR position than return punts.  And Frank Gore 4 picks after that.  Channing Crowder 5 picks later, then Justin Tuck 4 picks after that.  I’m just sayin…

2006:  Donte Whitner, S, Ohio State, 8th overall.  Look, I like Whitner.  He’s a solid guy, a good leader, all that.  But if you draft a safety with the 8th pick in the draft, he has to be a Troy Polamalu, a Bob Sanders, an Ed Reed, a Ronnie Lott.  Whitner is an average NFL starter.  And when you look at our DL play for the past 5 years, and realize that we passed on Haloti Ngata (who went 4 picks later to Baltimore, and who I was screaming for them to take on Draft Day), you just wanna pull your hair out.

2006:  John McCargo, DT, North Carolina State, 26th overall.  Traded up for this guy.  Somehow he’s still on the roster.  Here are 6 of the next 7 picks after McCargo:  RB DeAngelo Williams, TE Mercedes Lewis, C Nick Mangold (2 Pro Bowls already, if I’m counting right), RB Joseph Addai, DE Mathias Kiwanuka, LB DeMeco Ryans.  Oy vei.

2007:  Marshawn Lynch, RB, California, 12th overall.  Just missed on Patrick Wilils here – he went the pick before Lynch.  But if we can trade up for Losman and McCargo, couldn’t we have found someone – maybe Miami, who reached for Ted Ginn at #9 – to trade with so we could move up past SF and grab a franchise LB?  Darrelle Revis went two picks later, and is now the best CB in the league.  Hard to fault them for that though – they did need a RB and CB wasn’t a position of need at that time.  And if everyone knew Revis would be that good, he wouldn’t have lasted until #13.

2008:  Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy, 11th overall.  Jury’s still out on this one.  We’ll see how he develops this year.  But Ryan Clady, a stud LT, went to Denver with the next pick.  Think he could do better than Demetrius Bell and Cornell Green, the turnstiles currently manning the OT positions for Buffalo?  Brenden Albert went at #15 to KC, not sure how he’s doing.  But Jeff Otah has been pretty good – he went #19.  Baltimore took Joe Flacco here too, but that was considered a bit of a reach.  Point:  we took a CB who is struggling to win a starting position and passed on several solid OTs, probably because we were too scared for a repeat of Mike Williams.  Great.

2009:  Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn State, 11th overall.  This is the one that had me screaming at my TV set.  How in the hell do you take an undersized guy who is too small to play LB in the NFL let alone DE (Erik Flowers, anyone?) and pass on Brian Orakpo?  And no, that’s not hindsight – most of us were saying it on draft day.  Especially when you already had 2 DEs that you supposedly liked (Schobel and Kelsay) on the roster?  Don’t like Orakpo?  How about Brian Cushing, who won Defensive Rookie of the Year, at #15?  How about Clay Matthews, who just beat the hell out of us for the Packers?  He went #26.  Brandon Pettigrew just had 100 yards receiving for the Lions – he went #20.  Think he could beat out Jonathon Stupar at TE?  Michael Oher went to the Ravens, Jeremy Maclin to the Eagles, Percy Harvin to the Vikings – I wouldn’t have taken any of those last few guys at #11, but Maybin is a stiff.  He is Erik Flowers re-visited.

2009:  Eric Wood, C, Lousiville, 28th overall.  Traded up for him.  He’s playing pretty well, when he could keep his bones in one piece and contained under his skin.  At least we got a lineman.  Jarius Byrd in the 2nd is looking pretty good too.

2010:  CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson, 9th overall.  The following people who we passed on at positions of need better turn out to suck (I made this list on draft day because I was so disgusted with our draft): 

QB Jimmy Clausen, OTs Anthony Davis and Bryan Bulaga, DT Dan Williams, DE Derrick Morgan.

There it is.  This is why we suck.  We draft Aaron Maybin and Erik Flowers, and pass on Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews and Brian Cushing.  We draft corners and WRs and pass on All-Pro OTs.  We trade up for John McCargo and JP Losman and miss out on Aaron Rodgers.  We pass on Troy Polamalu to move down to take Willis McGahee when we already have Travis Henry.  No thanks, Haloti Ngata – we’ll take Donte Whitner. 

As if Bills Nation wasn’t depressed enough.

C.J. Spiller was one of the bigger disappointments of Week 1.

Monday Night LAP Dance
Leonard A. Pappano
September 13, 2010

** After watching Calvin Johnson’s obviously-a-TD-catch-to-anyone-in-his-40s, the NFL needs to revamp its rules. Back in the day, a catch was a catch. Just check out Butch Johnson’s iconic TD catch from Super Bowl XII to appreciate how ridiculous the rules have gotten. Now a receiver has to control the ball until his next visit to the men’s room. Sorry but I’m under the impression that the league’s rules have been heavily influenced in recent years by a group of unemployed attorneys: The tuck rule. The you-have-to-control-the-ball-till-your-next-trip-to-the-men’s-room rule. And my favorite from a few years ago – if a receiver WOULD have come down in bounds had the DB not knocked him out of bounds — it’s a catch. Who the hell thought of that one? Here’s a simple thought for commissioner Goodell. If you have to trot out Mike Pereira on the NFL Network every week to explain the rules, the rules are too complicated.

** The biggest disappointment this weekend was Bills RB CJ Spiller – especially after I drafted him in the 5th round in Saturday’s WCOFF Main Event draft. That said, it might not be a bad time to trade for him. Even on a terrible team, he will be the cream that rises to the top in the coming weeks. And likely post some big games.

** After flirting with the idea of taking WR Andre Johnson as the top pick in one of my high-stakes leagues, I went with Chris Johnson in both. In the FFPC, I managed to grab Javon Ringer in the later rounds, but missed him by 4 picks in the WCOFF.

** While in Vegas for the FFPC and the WCOFF, I witnessed something extraordinary from my friend, founder of Fantasy Sports Publications, and WCOFF co-founder, Emil Kadlec: He entered the FFPC’s “Bareknuckle Challenge,” which forced participants to draft with no cheat sheet, no phone, no assistance of any kind beyond looking at a draft board — and only 30 seconds to pick. In and of itself, this is quite a handicap — as many of the participants stumbled by reaching for players, or by drafting players who were long gone. But Emil took it one step further. He drafted BLINDFOLDED!  In fact, I was so taken by it that I thought maybe he could see through the blindfold somehow. Well, he insisted that I try out the blindfold for myself, and I couldn’t see a thing. So Emil drafted 26 rounds blindfolded without any assistance of any kind. Pretty damn impressive. And folks, don’t try this at home. Emil is a trained professional! Below is his team from the 7th spot:

Randy Moss
DeSean Jackson
Ryan Grant
Ronnie Brown
Matt Schaub
Chris Cooley
Knowshon Moreno
Justin Forsett
Robert Meachem
Mike Williams (Sea)
Mohamed Massaquoi
Tony Scheffler
Matt Moore
Matt Hasselbeck
Todd Heap
Laurence Maroney
Julian Edelman
Bengals Def
Dolphins Def
Redskins Def
David Buehler
Ryan Succop
Mark Clayton
Graham Gano
Brandon Lloyd
Toby Gerhart

** When we named Arian Foster as one of our sleepers this summer, we weren’t envisioning his killer performance yesterday. His 231 yards were second most on opening weekend in NFL history. (OJ Simpson galloped his way to 250 yards in 1973). Gotta figure Foster as a top-10 RB when we do our Rest of Way Rankings tomorrow. Not only did he run like a latter day Terrell Davis, but his O-line crushed the Colts.

** It’s early, but our boy Miles Austin is looking real good already. We ranked him #2 at WR in our preseason projections, and we wouldn’t be surprised if he finished atop the WR heap when all is said and done this year. He looked dominant on his way to 10 catches for 146 yards and a TD in the season opener. Even more impressive is the fact that he did it on just 11 targets. That’s right — 10 of the 11 balls that went Austin’s way were completed. His chemistry with QB Tony Romo is uncanny. Hopefully you were able to scoop this guy up in the 1st or 2nd-round of your draft.

** As part of our Weekly Rankings, we highlight a few “Sneaky Starters” at each position. These are guys that usually ride your pine, but we think could be solid starts based on trends, matchups, etc. We hit on quite a few of our “Sneaky Starters” in Week 1.

Tim Hightower – we gave him the “Sneaky Starter” tagged and ranked him 23rd among RBs. Hightower finished with 94 total yards and 1 TD. We had him projected for 90 total yards and .5 TDs.

Devery Henderson – We liked Henderson’s big-play ability against a banged-up Vikings secondary on Thursday night. And he came through with a 29-yard TD on New Orleans’ opening possession.

Mohamed Massaquoi – It would have taken some serious balls to roll with this “Sneaky Starter” in Week 1. But if you did, you were rewarded with a solid 46-yard, 1-TD performance.

Of course, we also missed on a few “Sneaky Starters,” like Matt Stafford and Louis Murphy. These guys aren’t necessarily safe plays, but they tend to pay off more often than not.

** In case you were wondering, yes, we do openly root for our First Round Bust candidates to get injured every year. Steven Jackson would look great on crutches by the end of the month. We’d even settle for an in-season suspension of any kind. Well, maybe not for rape or some form of abuse. We do have personal standards, as low as they may be.

** True story: While in Vegas, the head of another site had a subscriber call to ask if they should start “Santonio Hines” on Sunday. I’m happy to say that although I’m a certified half wit, we have a better breed of customers than any other fantasy football site. No one asking us about “Santonio Hines” this weekend. With that said, it’s not too late to join us for our Draft Sharks regular season service. Just click here to get started! We’ll help you out with weekly player rankings, sneaky starters, free agent pick-ups, fantasy vision write-ups, plus all the analysis you need to win a championship in 2010!

** It was great to see the real Michael Vick return to the NFL yesterday. He slashed through a very good Packers D for 103 yards on 11 carries. Vick nearly rallied his team from a 20-3 deficit in the second half. With the concussed Kevin Kolb still clearing out cobwebs, the Eagles might have a bona fide QB controversy.

** Thank you to the dozens of people who emailed me tips for hiking “The Narrows” slot canyon in Zion National Park. My buddy and I did it last week and it was one of the most amazing hikes I’ve ever done. As a side note, we rented a house in Virgin UT and were – intrigued is a good word – by the lights on the hills behind us. Part of the hill illuminated for 5-10 seconds each night we were there, but there was no light source that we could see – and no roads or houses close to the hill. When we asked a local about it, he said, “Oh, you’ll see all kinds of crazy stuff around here at night.”

Finley gets some excellent matchup against divisional rivals

by guest writer, Jack Decker

One doesn’t need to look far to see that the NFC is stacked with TE talent.  The NFC East has Jason Witten, Brent Celek, Chris Cooley, and Kevin Boss.  The NFC South has Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, and Kellen Winslow.  Even the NFC West has two budding stars in Vernon Davis and John Carlson. 

While the NFC North has its fair share of talent at the TE position, the real secret to their fantasy success hinges on the defenses of the division itself.  The NFC North was the worst TE defending division in football, with all four teams falling outside of the top-20 in points allowed.  Take a look at the numbers surrendered to opposing TE’s by NFC North teams in ‘09:

*league worst

While the statistical correlation of strength of schedule isn’t strong from season to season, you can feel confident that these defenses will be in the bottom half of the league with respect to TE scoring again in 2010.  With any of the TE’s in this division meeting a subpar defense at least six times –just over 40% of the regular season fantasy schedule– there will be plenty of opportunity for the names below to give you value at the position, from the early rounds as a top tier choice, to recommended bye week fillers that will often be available on your mid-season waiver wire.

Jermichael Finley (ADP – 5.01)  Let’s see.  The guy plays for an emerging offensive juggernaut.  He’s young, athletic, and has been taking snaps from the slot position.  If football were a game of Texas Hold Em poker, Finley would be a Royal Flush.  His last seven games had him on a torrid pace — projected over the course of a 16 game season to be a 1,000-yard, 10-TD producer.  Finley carries a hefty 5^th-round asking price, but if you are considering taking a TE early, use a selection on the Pro-Bowler-to-be after a few other of the big-name TEs have been taken.

Visanthe Shiancoe (9.04)  The return of Favre (did he ever leave?) makes Shiancoe an instant value, and good bet to score 8+ TDs.  Sure, the loss of Sidney Rice will probably mean some more defensive attention, but let’s face it, defenses will always have their hands full with Adrian Peterson.  In fact, the tenderness of Favre’s surgically-repaired ankle means that quick passes to Shiancoe.  It’s not inconceivable that the 7^th-year pro could lead the team in any receiving category this season.    

Brandon Pettigrew (13.01)  Word out of Detroit is that the Lions will employ a 2-TE set with Pettigrew seeing most of the blocking duties.  While this news, coupled with his return from offseason ACL reconstruction, puts a serious damper on a sophomore breakout campaign, it will be hard to keep the play-making man-child off the field during the second half of the season.  With contests against Chi, GB, TB, MIA, and MIN (the 24^th, 22^nd, 21^st, 23^rd, and 28^th ranked defenses against TEs) to close the season, Pettigrew could turn into the kind of player that wins some fantasy games down the stretch.  His 13^th-round price tag also makes him an excellent keeper option.

Greg Olsen (13.05)  We’ve all heard it before.  Mike Martz doesn’t utilize his TEs.  He’d rather just toss another speedy wideout on the field.  But while his history of using TEs is plain to see, we know that after a slow start, Cutler and Olsen developed a nice rapport by season’s end.  And while Martz is arrogant, he has to know that he has a viable weapon in his TE.  While it would be too risky to endorse Olsen as a starting option, he is still worth stashing as a second option with upside.  And should Martz show a willingness to use Olsen as more than just a blocker, he has a juicy Week 16 matchup against the Vikings and their 28^th-rated TE defense of a year ago.   

Tony Scheffler (14.01) The news that Scheffler has secured the starting TE spot is plenty encouraging for a guy who could see plenty of looks on an upstart offense.  While Detroit did well to upgrade at the second WR position this season, they still don’t have a credible slot receiver.  For Scheffler, this could mean an increase of snaps and targets.  Scheffler will be lining up with the likes of Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, and Javhid Best, so opposing defenses will have plenty to think about besides the TE position.  If Tony can hold off Brandon Pettigrew, he represents an excellent late-round flyer that could post low TE1 totals.

Calvin Johnson is a monster in the red zone

by guest writer, Jack Decker

Andre Johnson is the first WR since Jerry Rice to lead the position in fantasy scoring in back-to-back seasons. And rightly so, Andre is the first WR taken in virtually every single fantasy draft. Andre 3000 is the real deal, no doubt, and is basically a lock to finish as a top-5 WR.  But it’s just too difficult to stay atop the NFL ranks for an extended period of time, regardless of talent level. While Andre is every bit as gifted as Jerry Rice, there are other receivers with as much talent as the Texans All-Pro.  I think there will be a new WR to finish as fantasy’s No. 1 scorer this season.  And his name is Calvin Johnson.  Here are five reasons Calvin will out-produce Andre in 2010:

1. He’s a Freak – At 6′5, 236 pounds, Calvin is an inch taller than Randy Moss and has twenty pounds on the aforementioned Andre Johnson. His 40-yard dash time at the Combine was 4.35, or just seven hundredths of a second slower than the fastest 40-time EVER recorded by a wide receiver. That means he’s barely slower than speedsters who go 5’11, 180 pounds. His nickname “Megatron” was bestowed upon him by Roy Williams because of his enormous hands.  Johnson is able to rely on his unique blend of size, strength, speed, and leaping ability to beat defenders in a variety of ways.  He is the most awesome physical specimen we have seen at the wide receiver position, plain and simple. But enough hyperbole. Let’s talk numbers.

2. QB Consistency – Johnson was fed 136 targets in just 13 1/4 games in 2009. Over a full season that equates to 164 targets, just 7 behind, you guessed it, Andre Johnson. But while All-Pro Matt Schaub and AJ hooked up for 59% of targets received, Calvin caught a paltry 49% of passes thrown his way. Why? Well, Calvin was taking throws from three different QB’s that included rookie Matthew Stafford, an over-the-hill Dante Culpepper, and Drew Stanton — who in six career starts has a passer rating of 32 and a 1:6 TD to INT ratio. Ouch! Calvin endured 4 games in ‘09 where two QB’s played part of each game.  And he’s caught passes from a carousel of 6 different QBs during his 3 years in Detroit.  His stats from ‘09 (46 catches, 728 yards, 3 TDs with Stafford / 21 catches, 252 yards, 2 TDs without) indicate the stability of having his preferred QB under center for a full season will generate WR1 totals. It’s also true that when young QB-WR duos are paired up in the NFL and are given a full pre-season of work together, good things happen. Don’t be surprised if Stafford to Johnson becomes the next Aikman to Irvin or Manning to Harrison.

3. Supporting Cast – The additions of WR Nate Burleson (free agency), TE Tony Scheffler (trade), and rookie RB Jahvid Best (draft) won’t stop teams from double-teaming Calvin. But hey, at least they won’t be able to triple team him as has been the case in the past. Less defensive attention could easily produce an uptick in percentage of targets caught, to say 52% — good enough for 80 receptions for Calvin. While the presence of proven receivers and an upstart rookie RB may cause some to suggest a downturn in targets is likely for Megatron, the opposite may turn out to be true. An upstart offense that will get better as the weeks go on, Detroit will find that the more they move the football as a unit the more chances Johnson will get to receive passes. This will correlate nicely with an uptick in….

4. Red Zone Looks – Improvement from the entire Lions offense will translate into more trips into their opponents’ red zone. As Lions beat writer Tom Kowalski reported this summer, the coaching staff seems to recognize where the team should go with the football once they get there:

“The Lions are going to (Calvin) a lot in the red zone, and he’s coming through almost every time. The best part is that the Lions aren’t simply throwing fades to him, they’re using him on an assortment of routes so a corner and/or a double team can’t anticipate what’s coming.”

In his first 3 seasons, Calvin has totaled just 7 receptions when the ball is snapped from inside the opponents’ 10-yard line.  6 of the 7 have gone for scores. With a variety of looks designed to keep defenses honest, it isn’t a stretch to predict a Fitzgerald-esque 10 red zone TDs for Johnson this year.  Fitzgerald scored that very number in 2009 on 14 receptions – a reachable number for Calvin if the Lions commit to their best player from inside the 20.

5. Schedule – It is very difficult to predict how defenses will perform from season to season given the nature of the NFL. But the link is more about the “where” and “when” of the schedule than who the Lions play. Johnson much prefers the friendly track of a turf field to do his scoring. In his 3 years in the league, Johnson has scored 15 of his 21 TDs on turf with two-thirds of his scores coming in domed arenas. 2010 will also see an interesting schedule that has the lions playing no games in the elements during the harsh winters of the North and Northeast. Take a look at the Lions schedule of outdoor games in 2010:

@ Chicago – September 12

@ Green Bay – October 3

@ New York Giants – October 17

@Buffalo – November 14

@Tampa Bay – December 19

@Miami – December 26

Soldier Field in the mid-seventies, Lambeau and the Meadowlands before Halloween, and Buffalo before the second week in November?  Then two weeks in Florida to close the season??  Wow!  It’s entirely possible that the Lions will never experience temperatures below 40 degrees the whole season! In fact, the only game against a force of nature comes in the Lions Week 9 contest against the New York Jets and all-world cornerback Darelle Revis, who remains a holdout from team activities.

Right now the assumption in fantasy football is that Andre Johnson will finish the year as the # 1 WR in fantasy football.  He won’t. Calvin Johnson has the best chance to steal the crown already engraved with Andre’s name. Go ahead and take Megatron as the 2^nd WR drafted in any fantasy format.  And don’t be surprised when it’s the last time he’s associated with the #2 this year.  But don’t thank me for recommending him to you.  Thank yourself for recognizing that there is more to the fantasy football game than meets the eye.