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Don't worry about Maurice Jones-Drew's poor 2010 preseason.
by Jared Smola
What can we learn from preseason action?
It’s an interesting question, and one that doesn’t have a clear-cut answer.
Some people will say to put absolutely zero stock into preseason games. They’ll point out that teams are running base offenses and vanilla defenses, not wanting to tip their hand to the rest of the league. Plus, the veterans who are entrenched in the starting lineup are really just going through the motions.
But others will argue that this is the best chance we get to see how players look in live action before the season starts. And coaches need to know what they have in younger guys, so they’re going to give them their shots.
I come in somewhere down the middle.
But what do the numbers say? Let’s take a look at the top performers from the 2009 preseason and then how they did when the games started to count…
QBs
Todd Bouman – He led all preseason passers with 485 yards for the Jaguars. Bouman was released by Jacksonville prior to Week 1. What does a guy have to do to earn a job in this league?!
A.J. Feeley – As an Eagle, he racked up 350 yards passing in 3 preseason games. But like Bouman, Feeley was released prior to the season opener. He caught on a few weeks later with the Panthers, but didn’t appear in a single contest.
Joey Harrington – With the Saints, Harrington threw for 244 yards in the preseason. But like the two guys who threw for more yards, he was released and didn’t play during the regular season.
RBs
Tyrell Sutton – He was busy in the preseason with the Packers, racking up 191 rushing yards on 40 carries. After being release by Green Bay and scooped up by Carolina, Sutton totaled just 12 carries for 68 yards when the games actually counted.
Gartrell Johnson – the Chargers rookie finished the ’09 preseason with 184 yards on 48 carries. But he ended up playing the season as a Giant and received just 13 carries.
Aveion Cason – He finished 3rd in the NFL with 91 rushing yards during last year’s preseason. He was released prior to Week 1 and didn’t see the field the entire season.
WRs/TEs
Leonard Pope – That’s right. A TE led the league in receiving yards last preseason. Pope racked up 100 yards on 6 catches but was subsequently released by the Cardinals. He landed in Kansas City and finished the 2009 season with 20 catches for 174 yards.
Jayson Foster – This 5’7 jitterbug recorded 5 catches for 95 yards, including a 64-yarder in the preseason opener. But not surprisingly, he was cut and didn’t play in the regular season.
Ashley Lelie – Talk about a blast from the past. Lelie showcased some of that trademark speed during the ’09 preseason, tallying 5 catches for 95 yards in just 2 preseason games with the Chiefs. But he was released prior to Week 1 and garnered no interest on the open market.
Clearly, success in the preseason doesn’t translate to any sort of value when the games actually matter. This doesn’t bode well for guys like Luke McCown, Joique Bell, and Victor Cruz, who are all tearing up the preseason this year.
But how about guys who ended up exploding during the 2009 season? Did they some any signs of combustibility during preseason action? Let’s take a look…
QBs
Aaron Rodgers – A-rodg completed a ridiculous 70.7% of his passes for 465 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs in last year’s preseason action. Yeah… he was already feeling it.
Drew Brees – Brees played sparingly, but completed 29 of his 40 attempts for 354 yards and 4 scores. Like Rodgers, he was already in midseason form.
Matt Schaub – He completed 75.7% of his passes for 275 yards in 3 games. But he only threw 1 TD. Still, it’s clear Schaub was already in rhythm.
RBs
Chris Johnson – Johnson averaged just 3.1 yards per carry with 1 TD in 4 preseason games. Then he popped off 2,006 rushing yards with 16 total TDs in the regular season.
Adrian Peterson – AP racked up 181 yards in 3 preseason games, including an 11-carry, 117-yard effort in Week 3.
Maurice Jones-Drew – MJD managed only 29 yards on 10 carries last preseason. But he flipped the switch as soon as the games started to count, amassing over 1,700 total yards with 16 TDs.
WRs
Andre Johnson – He caught just 8 passes for 114 yards in 3 preseason games. AJ went on to post his 2nd-straight 1,500-yard season.
Randy Moss – Moss caught 9 balls for 114 yards in 2 preseason contests. In the 3rd game, he went off for 90 yards and 2 scores.
Miles Austin – He finished the preseason with just 3 catches for 44 yards – another reason he was completely off the fantasy radar.
There’s not much correlation between preseason performance and regular season performance among these guys.
If anything, it looks like we want to see QBs completing a high percentage of their passes. That’s not good news for Donovan McNabb and Jason Campbell, who are both hitting on less than 55% of their attempts.
And if anyone’s worrying about Maurice Jones-Drew’s poor 2010 preseason (6 carries, -2 yards)… don’t! He wasn’t much better in ’09 exhibition games but still had a big year.
