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How valuable is Turner in PPR formats?
When it comes to player rankings, even a fairly slight difference of opinion on a player can significantly alter his draft position. In this case, although neither side dislikes Michael Turner (what’s to dislike?), a difference of just a few spots in his ranking among PPR running backs turns him from a first-round pick for RapidDraft.com’s Matt Schauf to a late second-rounder in the format for DraftSharks.com’s Jared Smola. Here, Schauf and Smola square off on Turner’s PPR placement.
Schauf: I know that opinions on Michael Turner tend to vary quite a bit, especially when you look at things through the point-per-reception scope. I also know that you guys seem to have Turner quarantined at the end of Round 2 (which might as well be Round 5, since it’s highly unlikely you’ll get him at that point). Before I get into why you’re wrong, can you tell me exactly what you don’t like about him? Is it all those pesky touchdowns? The ascending offense? The nickname?
Smola: Let’s be clear: We love Turner. The dude’s built like a Mack Truck, runs with authority, and actually has sneaky speed for a 5’10, 244-pounder. But man-crushes aside, he’s perpetually overvalued in PPR formats. His career-high in catches is 6. Let me repeat that. His career-high in catches is 6! That’s a lot of points you’re missing out on in PPR leagues. If you’re comparing him to a guy at a similar ADP who’s going to catch 30 or 40 balls — say Rashard Mendenhall, for example — Turner is already behind by 30 or so points right off the bat. And that’s not even counting the yards he’s missing out on in the passing game. So, Mr. Schauf, tell us why we’re wrong …
Schauf: I was rowing in the same boat heading into last year, and then I watched Turner start what was considered a disappointing season with 10 touchdowns in his first eight games. (If it would help, I can repeat that.) That gave him 27 rushing scores through his first 24 games as a starter. One can point to the huge number of carries in 2008 and say the Falcons won’t let him approach that level again, thus fewer touchdowns lie ahead. Well, he was on pace for just 312 rushes through the first (injury-free) half of last year. All of Turner’s scoring has also come in an offense that ranked a mere 10th and 13th in points in his two seasons. The continued growth of Matt Ryan can only help the whole offense, which means potential for growth in scoring chances. Even without those receptions and the accompanying yardage, Turner came in fourth among PPR backs in 2008 and ranked seventh (at least in RapidDraft scoring) through Week 9 last season.
Smola: “Just” 312 rushes?? That’s quite a workload. In fact, it would have ranked him 5th in the entire NFL last season. That being said, I’m not buying the whole “we’re gonna take it easy on this guy” spiel from the Falcons. We currently have Turner slotted for a workmanlike 298 carries. Over the last 2 seasons, he scored an average of once every 20.5 carries. At that pace — and with the workload we have him projected for — that’d give him 14 scores. Now I think that’s a bit high, but it’s definitely not out of reach. So let’s give him 14 scores. It’s still not enough to make up for his complete lack of production in the passing game. Guys I’d take ahead of Turner — Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, and even Pierre Thomas — are good for anywhere between 7-10 scores. The 30+ catches and 200+ receiving yards they’ll outperform Turner by more than make up for the 25-40 fantasy points they fall behind in the TD department.
And that brings me to my next point: We actually have Turner ranked a respectable 11th among RBs in PPR formats. The reason we see him as a late-2nd-round value is because we’re going WR-heavy after the first 5 or 6 backs are off the board. Guys like Miles Austin, Calvin Johnson and Roddy White will all accrue more fantasy points than Turner thanks to their 70-90 catches. Again, we have nothing against Turner. The value just isn’t there in PPR leagues.
Schauf: I certainly don’t mean to downplay 312 carries. It’s clearly a workhorse total, and Turner is clearly a workhorse. That helps to add value beyond the raw numbers. It’s clear that our disagreement on Turner is a matter of workload and productivity. I think the only way Turner falls short of 300 attempts is if he gets hurt again. I also think 14 touchdowns is more like his floor for a full season than a high expectation. Turner has been good for more than a touchdown per game in each of his starting seasons so far (ignoring the three part-games late last year when he left one early and then was foolishly trotted out for two others on a sprained ankle). Take out those three games, and his rate jumps to a touchdown after 19.7 carries. Even over 310 attempts, that comes to about 16 for the year — which, at the least, is a realistic expectation. Including the 2008 playoffs, Turner has also scored in 15 of the past 17 games he started and finished. That makes him at least as good a bet to find the end zone every week as any other runner in the league. Even with Brett Favre around last season to boost the offense, Adrian Peterson managed four scoreless outings.
Turner sports a career 4.9-yard average per carry as well and has slimmed back down after admittedly heading into 2009 too heavy. Modest projections of 310 rushes and a 4.6 average would give him more rushing yards than anyone other than Chris Johnson had last year. I’m with you on a group of receivers building the separation between late-first and late-second runners, but Turner has twice shown us that his yardage and touchdowns can make up for receiving deficiencies and put him in the top 10 (even top five) at his position. His scoring consistency also makes him much safer than any of the three backs you mentioned above, a factor that has to be considered in Round 1. If we’re to believe the notion that the Falcons want to get him more involved as a receiver, that would merely be icing on this cake.
Smola: I can’t necessarily argue with his upside since he did record a 1,700-yard, 17-TD season back in 2008. But let’s also remember that Turner posted those numbers with a rookie QB under center who only attempted 434 passes (18th in the NFL). Turner carried the ball a whopping 376 times that year! I think we can agree that the Falcons will open up the offense a bit more in Matt Ryan’s 3rd season, especially with an underrated group of WRs in Roddy White, Michael Jenkins and Harry Douglas, plus a future Hall of Fame TE in Tony Gonzalez.
More pass attempts means fewer carries for Turner — I’m able to figure that one out thanks to my college education! And for a RB who doesn’t catch passes, it becomes a slippery slope when his role in the running game starts to dwindle. 300-310 carries sounds about right for Turner this year. But that won’t be nearly enough for him to post the 1,700 yards and 17 TDs he had in 2008 — thanks in large part to that massive workload. As for getting Turner more involved in the passing game… I’ll believe it when I see it! Just remember — “his career-high in catches is 6.” 
Schauf: Yep. It comes down to our difference in likely touchdowns — and, to a slightly lesser degree, yards — so we’ll just have to see who’s right. (For what it’s worth, Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson enjoyed terrific TD rates in balanced offenses last season.) My placement of Turner in the first round just means I’ll be watching him on some of my PPR rosters, whereas you guys probably won’t if waiting until the end of Round 2. These are the differences that make draft season interesting.
Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com. Challenge him and the DraftSharks.com experts in free fantasy football anytime at RapidDraft.com, with a guaranteed $100,000 grand prize.
Jared Smola is the Senior Editor for DraftSharks.com. Check out Draft Sharks for top-notch analysis and all the tools you need to dominate your league.
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