Don't worry about Maurice Jones-Drew's poor 2010 preseason.

by Jared Smola

What can we learn from preseason action?

It’s an interesting question, and one that doesn’t have a clear-cut answer. 

Some people will say to put absolutely zero stock into preseason games.  They’ll point out that teams are running base offenses and vanilla defenses, not wanting to tip their hand to the rest of the league.  Plus, the veterans who are entrenched in the starting lineup are really just going through the motions.

But others will argue that this is the best chance we get to see how players look in live action before the season starts.  And coaches need to know what they have in younger guys, so they’re going to give them their shots.

I come in somewhere down the middle.

But what do the numbers say?  Let’s take a look at the top performers from the 2009 preseason and then how they did when the games started to count…

QBs

Todd Bouman – He led all preseason passers with 485 yards for the Jaguars.  Bouman was released by Jacksonville prior to Week 1.  What does a guy have to do to earn a job in this league?!

A.J. Feeley – As an Eagle, he racked up 350 yards passing in 3 preseason games.  But like Bouman, Feeley was released prior to the season opener.  He caught on a few weeks later with the Panthers, but didn’t appear in a single contest.

Joey Harrington – With the Saints, Harrington threw for 244 yards in the preseason.  But like the two guys who threw for more yards, he was released and didn’t play during the regular season.

RBs

Tyrell Sutton – He was busy in the preseason with the Packers, racking up 191 rushing yards on 40 carries.  After being release by Green Bay and scooped up by Carolina, Sutton totaled just 12 carries for 68 yards when the games actually counted.

Gartrell Johnson – the Chargers rookie finished the ’09 preseason with 184 yards on 48 carries.  But he ended up playing the season as a Giant and received just 13 carries.

Aveion Cason – He finished 3^rd in the NFL with 91 rushing yards during last year’s preseason.  He was released prior to Week 1 and didn’t see the field the entire season.

WRs/TEs

Leonard Pope – That’s right.  A TE led the league in receiving yards last preseason.  Pope racked up 100 yards on 6 catches but was subsequently released by the Cardinals.  He landed in Kansas City and finished the 2009 season with 20 catches for 174 yards.

Jayson Foster – This 5’7 jitterbug recorded 5 catches for 95 yards, including a 64-yarder in the preseason opener.  But not surprisingly, he was cut and didn’t play in the regular season.

Ashley Lelie – Talk about a blast from the past.  Lelie showcased some of that trademark speed during the ’09 preseason, tallying 5 catches for 95 yards in just 2 preseason games with the Chiefs.  But he was released prior to Week 1 and garnered no interest on the open market.

Clearly, success in the preseason doesn’t translate to any sort of value when the games actually matter.  This doesn’t bode well for guys like Luke McCown, Joique Bell, and Victor Cruz, who are all tearing up the preseason this year.

But how about guys who ended up exploding during the 2009 season?  Did they some any signs of combustibility during preseason action?  Let’s take a look…

QBs

Aaron Rodgers – A-rodg completed a ridiculous 70.7% of his passes for 465 yards with 6 TDs and 0 INTs in last year’s preseason action.  Yeah… he was already feeling it.

Drew Brees – Brees played sparingly, but completed 29 of his 40 attempts for 354 yards and 4 scores.  Like Rodgers, he was already in midseason form.

Matt Schaub – He completed 75.7% of his passes for 275 yards in 3 games.  But he only threw 1 TD.  Still, it’s clear Schaub was already in rhythm.

RBs

Chris Johnson – Johnson averaged just 3.1 yards per carry with 1 TD in 4 preseason games.  Then he popped off 2,006 rushing yards with 16 total TDs in the regular season.

Adrian Peterson – AP racked up 181 yards in 3 preseason games, including an 11-carry, 117-yard effort in Week 3.

Maurice Jones-Drew – MJD managed only 29 yards on 10 carries last preseason.  But he flipped the switch as soon as the games started to count, amassing over 1,700 total yards with 16 TDs.

WRs

Andre Johnson – He caught just 8 passes for 114 yards in 3 preseason games.  AJ went on to post his 2^nd-straight 1,500-yard season.

Randy Moss – Moss caught 9 balls for 114 yards in 2 preseason contests.  In the 3^rd game, he went off for 90 yards and 2 scores.

Miles Austin – He finished the preseason with just 3 catches for 44 yards – another reason he was completely off the fantasy radar.

There’s not much correlation between preseason performance and regular season performance among these guys. 

If anything, it looks like we want to see QBs completing a high percentage of their passes.  That’s not good news for Donovan McNabb and Jason Campbell, who are both hitting on less than 55% of their attempts. 

And if anyone’s worrying about Maurice Jones-Drew’s poor 2010 preseason (6 carries, -2 yards)… don’t!  He wasn’t much better in ’09 exhibition games but still had a big year.

How valuable is Turner in PPR formats?

When it comes to player rankings, even a fairly slight difference of opinion on a player can significantly alter his draft position. In this case, although neither side dislikes Michael Turner (what’s to dislike?), a difference of just a few spots in his ranking among PPR running backs turns him from a first-round pick for RapidDraft.com’s Matt Schauf to a late second-rounder in the format for DraftSharks.com’s Jared Smola. Here, Schauf and Smola square off on Turner’s PPR placement.

Schauf: I know that opinions on Michael Turner tend to vary quite a bit, especially when you look at things through the point-per-reception scope. I also know that you guys seem to have Turner quarantined at the end of Round 2 (which might as well be Round 5, since it’s highly unlikely you’ll get him at that point). Before I get into why you’re wrong, can you tell me exactly what you don’t like about him? Is it all those pesky touchdowns? The ascending offense? The nickname?

Smola: Let’s be clear: We love Turner. The dude’s built like a Mack Truck, runs with authority, and actually has sneaky speed for a 5’10, 244-pounder. But man-crushes aside, he’s perpetually overvalued in PPR formats. His career-high in catches is 6. Let me repeat that. His career-high in catches is 6! That’s a lot of points you’re missing out on in PPR leagues. If you’re comparing him to a guy at a similar ADP who’s going to catch 30 or 40 balls — say Rashard Mendenhall, for example — Turner is already behind by 30 or so points right off the bat. And that’s not even counting the yards he’s missing out on in the passing game. So, Mr. Schauf, tell us why we’re wrong …

Schauf: I was rowing in the same boat heading into last year, and then I watched Turner start what was considered a disappointing season with 10 touchdowns in his first eight games. (If it would help, I can repeat that.) That gave him 27 rushing scores through his first 24 games as a starter. One can point to the huge number of carries in 2008 and say the Falcons won’t let him approach that level again, thus fewer touchdowns lie ahead. Well, he was on pace for just 312 rushes through the first (injury-free) half of last year. All of Turner’s scoring has also come in an offense that ranked a mere 10^th and 13^th in points in his two seasons. The continued growth of Matt Ryan can only help the whole offense, which means potential for growth in scoring chances. Even without those receptions and the accompanying yardage, Turner came in fourth among PPR backs in 2008 and ranked seventh (at least in RapidDraft scoring) through Week 9 last season.

Smola: “Just” 312 rushes?? That’s quite a workload. In fact, it would have ranked him 5th in the entire NFL last season. That being said, I’m not buying the whole “we’re gonna take it easy on this guy” spiel from the Falcons. We currently have Turner slotted for a workmanlike 298 carries. Over the last 2 seasons, he scored an average of once every 20.5 carries. At that pace — and with the workload we have him projected for — that’d give him 14 scores. Now I think that’s a bit high, but it’s definitely not out of reach. So let’s give him 14 scores. It’s still not enough to make up for his complete lack of production in the passing game. Guys I’d take ahead of Turner — Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, and even Pierre Thomas — are good for anywhere between 7-10 scores. The 30+ catches and 200+ receiving yards they’ll outperform Turner by more than make up for the 25-40 fantasy points they fall behind in the TD department.

And that brings me to my next point: We actually have Turner ranked a respectable 11th among RBs in PPR formats. The reason we see him as a late-2nd-round value is because we’re going WR-heavy after the first 5 or 6 backs are off the board. Guys like Miles Austin, Calvin Johnson and Roddy White will all accrue more fantasy points than Turner thanks to their 70-90 catches. Again, we have nothing against Turner. The value just isn’t there in PPR leagues.

Schauf: I certainly don’t mean to downplay 312 carries. It’s clearly a workhorse total, and Turner is clearly a workhorse. That helps to add value beyond the raw numbers. It’s clear that our disagreement on Turner is a matter of workload and productivity. I think the only way Turner falls short of 300 attempts is if he gets hurt again. I also think 14 touchdowns is more like his floor for a full season than a high expectation. Turner has been good for more than a touchdown per game in each of his starting seasons so far (ignoring the three part-games late last year when he left one early and then was foolishly trotted out for two others on a sprained ankle). Take out those three games, and his rate jumps to a touchdown after 19.7 carries. Even over 310 attempts, that comes to about 16 for the year — which, at the least, is a realistic expectation. Including the 2008 playoffs, Turner has also scored in 15 of the past 17 games he started and finished. That makes him at least as good a bet to find the end zone every week as any other runner in the league. Even with Brett Favre around last season to boost the offense, Adrian Peterson managed four scoreless outings.

Turner sports a career 4.9-yard average per carry as well and has slimmed back down after admittedly heading into 2009 too heavy. Modest projections of 310 rushes and a 4.6 average would give him more rushing yards than anyone other than Chris Johnson had last year. I’m with you on a group of receivers building the separation between late-first and late-second runners, but Turner has twice shown us that his yardage and touchdowns can make up for receiving deficiencies and put him in the top 10 (even top five) at his position. His scoring consistency also makes him much safer than any of the three backs you mentioned above, a factor that has to be considered in Round 1. If we’re to believe the notion that the Falcons want to get him more involved as a receiver, that would merely be icing on this cake.

Smola: I can’t necessarily argue with his upside since he did record a 1,700-yard, 17-TD season back in 2008. But let’s also remember that Turner posted those numbers with a rookie QB under center who only attempted 434 passes (18^th in the NFL). Turner carried the ball a whopping 376 times that year! I think we can agree that the Falcons will open up the offense a bit more in Matt Ryan’s 3^rd season, especially with an underrated group of WRs in Roddy White, Michael Jenkins and Harry Douglas, plus a future Hall of Fame TE in Tony Gonzalez.

More pass attempts means fewer carries for Turner — I’m able to figure that one out thanks to my college education! And for a RB who doesn’t catch passes, it becomes a slippery slope when his role in the running game starts to dwindle. 300-310 carries sounds about right for Turner this year. But that won’t be nearly enough for him to post the 1,700 yards and 17 TDs he had in 2008 — thanks in large part to that massive workload. As for getting Turner more involved in the passing game… I’ll believe it when I see it! Just remember — “his career-high in catches is 6.”

Schauf: Yep. It comes down to our difference in likely touchdowns — and, to a slightly lesser degree, yards — so we’ll just have to see who’s right. (For what it’s worth, Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson enjoyed terrific TD rates in balanced offenses last season.) My placement of Turner in the first round just means I’ll be watching him on some of my PPR rosters, whereas you guys probably won’t if waiting until the end of Round 2. These are the differences that make draft season interesting.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com. Challenge him and the DraftSharks.com experts in free fantasy football anytime at RapidDraft.com, with a guaranteed $100,000 grand prize.

Jared Smola is the Senior Editor for DraftSharks.com.  Check out Draft Sharks for top-notch analysis and all the tools you need to dominate your league.

Gresham has the talent to make an impact in Year 1.

by guest writer, Bill Phillips

When you enter your fantasy draft this year, the biggest unknowns are the rookies, especially those in the less glamorous positions.  The bottom of a draft is a bit like sitting at a Texas Hold’em poker table for the first time.  You have no idea how the rest of the table plays and no idea if the guy to your left is Phil Ivey or the sucker at the table.  You do know two things — you don’t want to draft the sucker pick and you want to avoid being the sucker at your fantasy draft by picking the guy that won’t even take a snap this year.  Your league may not draft deep enough to select too many rookie TEs, but here’s a look at the top of the class this year and why you should keep an eye on these three guys.

ROYAL FLUSH DRAW – Even a few years removed from their last Super Bowl victory, the royalty in the NFL is still its last dynasty — and that’s the New England Patriots.  Their draft choice, Rob Gronkowski, comes into a team that has an opening for him and an offense and a QB that like to get the ball to a TE.  Gronkowski is 6’6 with very good hands and will make an alluring target for Tom Brady.  Ben Watson and Chris Baker’s departures mean that Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Alge Crumpler will be fighting it out for the starting spot.  And Gronkowski, the second TE drafted this year, has the ability to win the starting spot.   Just ask Mike Vrabel if Tom Brady likes big targets in the red zone.

FULL HOUSE – In general, one thing you don’t want to do is take a TE, or any player for that matter, with an All Pro veteran ahead of him on the depth chart.  However, with Todd Heap we’ll make an exception. We think Ed Dickson, the 3^rd-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens, is somebody you should monitor on the waiver wire.  Heap battled minor injuries last year, had a resurgence the year before, but that followed up a few years of disappointments and injuries.  Heap’s Pro Bowl and All Pro years are from the early 2000s (2002, 2003). And though his QB and offensive system is becoming pass-happy, there is some wear and tear on Heap’s tires. 

So, there may be a great opportunity for Dickson.  If Heap goes down, pluck the former Oregon Duck off the waivers.  His sub 4.7 40-speed and good hands means he can get open and make catches.  It also means once he gets in there Heap may not be able to get him off the field.  QB Joe Flacco will appreciate his good route running and will likely find Dickson. 

INSIDE STRAIGHT – The player that should be at the top of this list, because he was first on draft day, is Bengals TE Jermaine Gresham.  The Bengals have a big hole in the offense and that’s down the middle of their field.  Like the second TE drafted (Gronkowski), Gresham sat out all of the 2009 season.  Unlike Gronkowski, Gresham’s injury was to his knee.  He already had speed questions, so it’s a dicey body part to rehab.  What Gresham has in spades is size, skill, and hands.  That’ll make him a good target… if he can get open.

Some like to compare Gresham to Antonio Gates, but let’s see how the knee does before penciling in the big pass-catcher as a future All Pro.  There is room for Gresham on the depth chart to get snaps, but the Bengals typically like to throw to their receivers, Chad Ochocinco et al, so Gresham’s red zone utility may be less.  Granted, if Gresham starts from day one — and Gronkowski doesn’t win the starting spot from Crumpler and Heap doesn’t get hurt — Gresham by default is the number one rookie TE.  Still, upside-wise, you have to think the other two have the potential to get you bigger numbers even though Gresham may be the safer pick.  You shouldn’t be looking for safer picks at the bottom of your draft or off the waiver wire.

Westbrook could still be a valuable 3rd-down back.

by Kevin English

With T.O. off the market, Brian Westbrook becomes the last big-name free agent available.

But which uniform will the long-time Eagle be donning in 2010?

Let’s take a look at the teams that have openly expressed an interest in landing Westy:

St. Louis: The Rams are one of two teams that have come out and said that they’re interested in Westbrook’s services this offseason.  And just last week, HC Steve Spagnuolo noted that he was “hopeful” the 30-year-old would join his squad.  The move would make some sense, with a rookie QB and a quickly deteriorating RB in Steven Jackson headlining the offense.  Westbrook has said he wants to play for a contender, but with limited options available, he might not have a choice. 

Washington: Skins HC Mike Shanahan said last week the “door has not closed” with regards to signing Westbrook.  That’s really not a shocking development, considering Shanny has never “closed the door” on any RB.  While it’s hard to picture how he’d fit into their backfield puzzle, Westbrook would at least have a better shot at significant playing time in Washington than he would in St. Louis.  

Denver: The Broncos appeared set to enter 2010 with Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter atop their depth chart.  But after Moreno’s recent hamstring injury – that’ll force him out of 3 weeks of action – the Broncos might want some extra veteran insurance.   And as a quick, nimble back, Westbrook would be an ideal fit for Denver’s zone blocking scheme.  Just as long as he’s healthy.  

Here are a couple of other teams that I believe would improve by adding Westbrook to their roster:

Tennessee: The Titans have an obvious all-world runner in Chris Johnson.  But what about after him?  With unproven youngsters like Javon Ringer, LeGarrette Blount, and Stafon Johnson in the backfield mix, Westbrook would be a solid addition for the contending Titans.  The grizzled veteran could provide some veteran leadership as well.

New England: The Pats love taking a chance on experienced players.  From Corey Dillon in 2004, to Torry Holt this year, they’ve never been shy about taking a flyer on a guy that’s past his prime.  With an underwhelming backfield featuring Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and Fred Taylor, why not bring the former Villanova star to Foxborough?  If Westbrook checks out healthy, he could become a valuable asset in the Pats’ RB merry-go-round.