by Jared Smola

We always hear about players signing a deal for $X million with another $X million available through incentives.  Rarely do we learn what those incentives are and how much they player gets if he reaches them.

But thanks to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, we know the statistical milestones new Bengals WR Terrell Owens will be looking to hit this year – and how much extra dough he’ll pocket if he does.

Here are the incentives built into T.O.’s new contract:

60 catches – $333,000

100 catches – $333,000

900 yards – $333,000

1300 yards – $333,000

10 TDs – $333,000

14 TDs – $333,000

Based on our projections, Owens isn’t going to earn a single penny of this potential $2 million.

Antonio Bryant's knee might be worse than the Bengals are letting on.

by Jared Smola

While the eyes of Fantasy Nation are on Terrell Owens as he closes in on a home for the 2010 season, I can’t stop thinking about Antonio Bryant’s knee.

I’ve always had a thing for Bryant.  He’s an absolute beast on the field – speed, hops, and incredible hands.  I’m sure no one’s forgotten about this catch. 

But durability problems – specifically a bad left knee – have really derailed his career.  Since being drafted by the Cowboys in 2002, Bryant has missed 22 games in 8 seasons.

But that didn’t stop the Bengals from passing on Terrell Owens and signing Bryant to a 4-year, $28 million contract this offseason.  At just 29 years old, Cincinnati saw more upside in Bryant than the 36-year-old Owens.

Bryant hasn’t done anything to make the Bengals feel good about that decision though.  That left knee has continued to give him trouble this offseason.  He spent quite a bit of time “resting” on the sidelines during OTAs. 

The Bengals never really updated his status, but I think the fact that they’re interested in Owens is a good sign they’re worried about Bryant’s health.

“I’d like to have him on our side of the ball compared to the other side,” Bengals owner Mike Brown said of Owens. “He can change field position. He makes big plays.”

Brown was singing a different tune a few months ago.  The franchise clearly prefers Bryant over Owens – they had their pick of the two back in March and chose Bryant.  They’re essentially hedging their bet by going after Owens at this point in the year.

Why else would they be interested?  They’re set at #3 WR with Jordan Shipley and Andre Caldwell.  Adding T.O. into the mix with Bryant and Ochocinco would just stunt the growth of those young guys.

I think the Bengals aren’t sure Bryant will be healthy enough for Week 1.  And they’re probably convinced he won’t make it through a full 16-game season.

We moved Bryant down our fantasy football rankings a few spots on Sunday.  If Owens lands in Cincinnati, Bryant will go into a full free-fall.

Where will Terrell Owens be eating popcorn in 2010?

by Kevin English

As we inch closer to August, Terrell Owens remains unsigned.

The reasons why are well documented, and the number of teams that have said no to T.O. are abundant.  So where will he be playing football this season?

Below are a handful of teams that haven’t — to my knowledge — shot down an interest in Owens.  They’re also teams that I feel could benefit from the 36-year-old’s services.

Atlanta: The Falcons have an underrated #1 in Roddy White, but after him, it’s slim pickins.  Michael Jenkins and Harry Douglas – a guy struggling to return from a torn ACL – are in a “battle” for the #2 spot.  T.O. would be a clear cut upgrade in Hotlanta. 

Carolina: The Panthers invested a 2010 3^rd round pick in WR Brandon LaFell.  This season, he’ll have to beat out the incumbent Dwayne Jarrett, something he should be able to accomplish with one hand tied behind his back.  Regardless, both are unproven, and neither should have the Panthers feeling too confident.  T.O. would certainly help new QB Matt Moore’s transition to starter – so long as they get along.

Denver: Brandon Marshall is in South Beach, leaving the Broncos without a go-to WR.  While T.O. probably isn’t “that guy” anymore, he’d instantly become the best pass-catcher in the Mile High city.  But based off the team’s selections of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker in this year’s draft, we’re not expecting a T.O. signing to go down.  Take note — both Decker and Thomas have injury concerns, so Owens’ number could be on speed dial.

New England: The Pats have had success bringing in over-the-hill veterans in the past.  Sure, T.O.’s a different animal, but if they believe Wes Welker will miss the first 6 weeks of the season, why not?  If they can get Owens to buy into the system – and he can co-exist with Randy Moss – there’s little doubt he’d help that offense show glimpses of its ’07 form. 

Oakland: The Raiders are my guess for where T.O. will land.  Why?  Because it’s the Raiders, and they specialize in head-scratching moves.  The Silver and Black own ample young talent at WR with Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy, and Darrius Heyward-Bey on the roster.  Certainly, T.O. isn’t a high priority.  But whether the move makes sense or not, Owens is a big-name guy that Al Davis would love to get his hands on.  If the Raiders bring Owens in for a workout, as long as he runs a sub-4.5 in the 40, I have no doubt he’ll be a Raider.

Pittsburgh: Just this past Tuesday, a report surfaced claiming the Steelers were kicking around the idea of signing T.O.  Maybe so, but we don’t see this coming to fruition.  Unless there’s a Hines Ward injury we don’t know about, a T.O. signing would only hurt the progression of promising 2^nd-year WR Mike Wallace.   I’m confident the Steelers aren’t one of the teams T.O.’s agent Drew Rosenhaus has heard from.

Tampa Bay: The way things stand now, there’s a decent chance the Bucs will head into 2010 starting 2 rookie WRs.  With Tampa in clear rebuilding mode though, it’s hard to see Owens blocking the path of 2 hopeful studs.  In theory, his addition would bolster a passing game that’s in need of an established threat.  But given the Bucs current situation in a tough NFC South, don’t bank on T.O. playing for the Bucs – or any team in the Sunshine State – this season. 

Tennessee:  Here’s what CB Cortland Finnegan said Thursday when asked about T.O. joining the Titans.  “No,” Finnegan said.  “No. I don’t … no. No. No. Not gonna happen. (HC) Jeff Fisher wouldn’t allow it. The guys … no. He wouldn’t be part of the Tennessee … no. I’m just gonna say ‘no’ and just keep on pushing.”  Man – tell us how you really feel, Cortland.  Whether he’s afraid to go up against him in practice, or he’s genuinely not a fan of the guy (I’ll believe the latter), if the Titans front office shares even a fraction of the disdain Cortland has towards Owens, he’s probably not going to be Nashville-bound.

7/26 update…

Cincinnati: Nobody thought the Bengals would be in the running for Owens after they inked Antonio Bryant to a contract earlier this offseason.  But with Bryant’s problematic knee acting up, owner Mike Brown is in search of an insurance policy.  In fact, by the sound of things, Brown thinks he can get much more than that by bringing T.O. on board.  “He (T.O) can change field position,” Brown pointed out.  “He makes big plays.”  If Owens wants to join a contender, and is willing to take a bit of a discount, Cincinnati is an ideal destination for him.

St. Louis: The Rams entered the T.O. sweepstakes out of left field last week.  With a rookie QB and some promising talent at WR, the fit doesn’t seem right.  But apparently, the Rams front office feels differently.  According to ESPN.com, a high-ranking Rams official said a formal offer could be presented to Owens as soon as Monday.  T.O.’s options around the league are certainly limited, but he’ll need to get paid a pretty penny to come on board with the lowly Rams.

Manning has a chance to move up the record books in a couple categories

by Kevin English

Rarely do we stop and think about individual players’ upcoming milestones in fantasy football. That’s because, well, they’re irrelevant. But as you find yourself in that yearly mid-summer rut, we’ve got a few extra tid-bits to keep your eye on during the 2010 NFL season.

** Peyton Manning heads into 2010 needing 8 consecutive starts to reach 200 straight for his career. Even if/when #18 hits that mark, he’ll need 86 more (which equates to just over 5 seasons worth of games) to break Brett Favre’s record of 285. We don’t like his odds of surpassing Favre’s mark, but if anyone’s got a shot at breaking it, Peyton’s the guy.

** Speaking of Manning, he needs just 1,348 passing yards to leap-frog John Elway for 3rd on the all-time list. After that, he’ll look to reach the totals of Dan Marino (61,361) and Brett Favre (69,329). Manning currently sits at 50,128 career passing yards.

** Donovan McNabb could easily move up the all-time completion list this season. He currently stands 19th, 29 shy of Johnny Unitas. In fact, he could move as high as 12th with 305 completions, which would see him surpass names like Jim Everett, Steve DeBerg, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, and Dave Krieg.

** LaDainian Tomlinson currently sits 8th on the all-time rushing list with 12,490 career yards. He needs 250 to pass Tony Dorsett for 7th, and 806 to pass Eric Dickerson for 6th. We like his chances of moving past Dorsett, but Dickerson? Not so much.

** Randy Moss, meanwhile, needs 74 more grabs to reach the 1k mark. It’s likely he’ll hit it around Week 16, provided he remains healthy.

** Terrell Owens needs 19 more receptions to pass Isaac Bruce for 5th on the all-time list. If T.O. can find a new home, he’s got it locked up.

** Tony Gonzalez is just a single catch shy of reaching 1,000 for his career. When he does, he’ll become 1 of just 7 guys in the club, and will be the first TE to reach that plateau.

** Darren Sharper is tied with Ronnie Lott for 6th on the all-time interception list with 63. He needs 3 more to pass Ken Riley for 5th, and 6 more to pass Dick Lane for 4th. Given Sharper’s recent injury woes, we wouldn’t bet on him passing either guy this season.

** Jason Taylor sits 11th on the all-time sacks list with 127. In his sites are Rickey Jackson (128), Leslie O’Neal (132), and Lawrence Taylor (132). The Future Hall-of-Famer has a great shot at finishing the upcoming season safely inside the top-10.

www.draftsharks.com

by Jared Smola

We’ll be posting our Team Defense By Committee article next week. In short, it highlights pairs of defenses that have favorable matchups throughout the season. One defense facing the Colts? Not a problem – your 2nd defense squares off against the Rams.

But to employ that strategy, you gotta use two of your valuable roster spots on team defenses. If your draft only goes 16 rounds, you’re better off grabbing that 5th RB or 6th WR instead of a 2nd defense.

So what defenses do you target if you’re planning on waiting until one of your last two picks AND only picking one of them?

My advice: grab a defense that faces a few weak offenses to start the year. Rack up the points in those weeks, and then drop the defense before its first tough opponent. Then just work the waiver wire and play the matchup game the rest of the season.

If that sounds like a plan, here are 3 defenses with cake schedules to start the year:

San Diego Chargers

Week 1 – @ Kansas City
Week 2 – vs. Jacksonville
Week 3 – @ Seattle
Week 4 – vs. Arizona
Week 5 – @ Oakland
Week 6 – @ St. Louis
* DROP *
Week 7 – vs. New England

Arizona Cardinals

Week 1 – @ St. Louis
Week 2 – @ Atlanta
Week 3 – vs. Oakland
* DROP *
Week 4 – @ San Diego

St. Louis Rams

Week 1 – vs. Cardinals
Week 2 – @ Raiders
Week 3 – vs. Redskins
Week 4 – vs. Seahawks
Week 5 – @ Detroit
* DROP *
Week 6 – vs. San Diego

by Kevin English

You’ve seen it before. And there’s a good chance you’ll be seeing it again.

I’m talking about someone in your fantasy football draft who selects a team defense early. Really early. Say, 8th round early.

That’s the current ADP of the Jets D – 8.06. Absurd, right?

Of course. But that won’t stop an off-their-rocker league-mate from investing a mid-round pick in them. If by chance you fall into that category, please, continue reading – it just might save your fantasy football career.

First off, I see the appeal in Gang Green’s defense. They have an excellent tandem at CB with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. They’ve got ideal 3-4 ‘backers in Bart Scott, Byran Thomas, David Harris, Calvin Pace, and free agent acquisition Jason Taylor. On the line, they’ll welcome back DT Kris Jenkins, a dominant run stuffer that missed 10 games due to injury last year. That’s all fine and dandy. But simply put, their crew of house-hold names aren’t going to produce the fantasy totals many are expecting.

Let’s take a look at why by examining their 2009 performance.

Last year, the Jets defense was downright stingy. They ranked 1st against the pass, 8th against the run, and allowed a mere 14.8 points per game – tops in the league. Hell, they allowed just 8 passing TDs all season; outside of the Jets, no team surrendered fewer than 14. Surely, they finished in the top-5, if not top-3, among team defenses in fantasy leagues. No? Top-10? It might come as a surprise, but the Jets defense didn’t finish the ’09 season higher than 10th in any fantasy format.

What held the Jets back was their inability to get to the QB. They tallied a pedestrian 32 sacks – ranking 21st in the league. The Jets also didn’t record the INTs you’d expect, snagging a middle-of-the-road 17. It might not seem like a huge deal, but those two statistics – two of the biggest when it comes to the success of team defenses in fantasy football – really prevented Rex Ryan’s crew from becoming an elite option.

In 2010, despite a wave of new additions, don’t expect the Jets to crack the top-3 team defenses. And certainly don’t expect them to finish as the far and away #1 D like many do. Let’s briefly go through their major additions – and 2009 holdovers – that have so many fantasy freaks drinking the Kool-Aid.

Jason Taylor: JT has 127.5 career sacks, and is one of the best pass-rushers of his time. That’s undeniable. Taylor, however, was good – but not great – last year, posting 7 sacks while in a pass-rushing role. He’ll hold a similar role in New York, but the longtime Fin will turn 36 before Week 1, and we’re skeptical he’ll continue to play at his 2009 level. The future Hall of Famer is far from a sure thing.

Antonio Cromartie: After his 10 INT season in 2007, Cromartie has mustered just 5 over the last 2 seasons. He’s battled nagging hip and hammy injuries during that time, both of which re-appeared this offseason. He sat out some OTAs because of the injury, but it’s not severe. Still, it’s a reminder the 26-year-old isn’t 100%, and that expecting a repeat of his ’07 season is a pipe dream.

Kyle Wilson: A rookie from Boise State, Wilson is likely to step into the nickel corner role from day 1. Many touted him as the best CB in the draft, and expect him to perform admirably from day 1. We’re not so sure though. He went relatively untested at BSU, and is likely to need some time to get adjusted to playing at the NFL level. He won’t contribute much to the fantasy success of the Jets defense.

Darrelle Revis: Revis posted 6 INTs last year, tops in his career. But heading into 2010, opposing offenses will be diverting their attention to the opposite side of the field for all 16 games. Revis will remain dominant, but his mark of 6 INTs will drop.

Kris Jenkins: As previously noted, Jenkins will return to the starting lineup after missing substantial time last season. He’s been practicing in minicamps, but it’s anyone’s guess as to how the 350-pounders’ knees will hold up post-ACL surgery. Even if he remains healthy, Jenkins doesn’t hold the key to the Jets fantasy success. He has just 24 career sacks, and hasn’t posted more than 3.5 since 2003.

When all is said and done, there’s a good chance the Jets defense will improve upon their fantasy standing from a year ago. But we’ll hold firm that the Jets, or any other team defense, is not worth a mid-round pick in fantasy drafts. Take your 3rd or 4th RB or WR. Take your starting QB or your starting TE. Take anything but a team defense. And, of course, your kicker.