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Archive for June, 2010

He’ll Be Going Higher in August…

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

by Brett Barclay

July is closing in quickly, which can only mean three things: the worst month in all of sports (WNBA and mid-season baseball, bleh), back sweat, and the sound of the hype machine spinning its wheels at fantasy football drafts across the country. The following is a list of guys that are bound to climb cheat sheets (and ADP rankings) over the next few months due to anything from over-zealous hype to expedited injury recovery. If you like these guys at their current ADP, don’t hold you’re breath expecting to grab them there in another month.

Chad Henne, QB, Dolphins (current ADP: 11.12)
A quick glance at Henne’s overall numbers make his 2009 season look rather pedestrian - and to be fair, for the most part, it was. But digging a little deeper we see that Henne finished strong with 8 TDs in his last 8 games. Now with one full offseason as a starter under his belt, he’s being selected with some great value late in the 11th round. As soon as word gets out regarding Henne and Brandon Marshall’s “chemistry,” we’ll start to see him shoot up draft boards 1 or 2 rounds.

Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals (12.12)
Maybe it’s his Hollywood lifestyle, but Matt Leinart is always going to be a sexy pick. USC fanboys love him, the wives and girlfriends in your league love him, and everyone else will assume that the QB in Ken Whisenhunt’s pass-friendly offense is money. If his ADP rises like we think it will, we’d suggest steering clear of the Matt Leinart sweepstakes this summer with the loss of WR Anquan Boldin and the question marks surrounding the starters on the offensive line.

Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns (9.01)
Rookie RBs tend to be plagued by the hype machine when it comes to their fantasy value. In general, rookies – specifically RBs – are usually taken one or two rounds too high. As for Hardesty, we’re huge fans, so a rise from early 9th to early 8th won’t be enough to scare us away. But if he starts approaching 6th-round territory we may have to pass.

Michael Bush, RB, Raiders (9.06)
All reports indicate that this is Bush’s year, as he’s taken first-team reps throughout OTAs this spring. But Darren McFadden’s $60 million contract will be enough to spell Bush early and often. Bush is a great, powerful, pure runner, so we’re likely to hear more positive news out of Raiders camp, which will result in a slowly climbing ADP. It wouldn’t surprise us if he was a late 6th-rounder in August.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans (13.05)
For now, Foster is penciled in as the Texans starter, and that’s all some fantasy owners need to hear to be sold on a guy. But competition-wise, he’s up against a highly-touted rookie in Ben Tate, and a former 1,200-yard rusher in Steve Slaton. It’s a tough pair for Foster to fend off. And even if he does, this will still be the ultimate time-share on one of the poorest ground games in the league. Starter status alone should push his 13th-round price tag much higher than the 10th or 11th. 

Robert Meachem, WR, Saints (7.04)
Meachem underwent toe surgery and admitted that he has no idea when he’ll be 100% again. Coming off of a 45-722-9 season on arguably the most potent offensive in NFL history, you’d expect that ADP to rise if and when that toe heals up. HC Sean Payton insists that Meachem will be good to go in time for training camp, and if he does take the field, his draft stock could jump into the 5th or 6th-round 

Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots (8.10)
Welker is all but officially out of commission for the first quarter of the season. But until it’s set in stone, Julian Edelman is just waiting in the wings to take over the coveted Patriots slot position. Word out of New England is that Welker will be put on the PUP list right around training camp, making Edelman the Patriots #2 option behind Randy Moss in the offense. Watch his ADP climb 30+ spots when that happens.

Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers (9.05)
Everyday that Vincent Jackson continues his holdout, the more we like Floyd. He’s got all the tools and now he’s about to get an opportunity of a lifetime if Jackson decides to sit this season out like he’s claimed he will. Floyd would still be the team’s #2 target behind Antonio Gates but poses as one of the most lethal deep threats in the AFC. We could be seeing him fly off the board in the 6th-round if Jackson’s situation continues to look grim in August.

Mike Williams, WR, Bucs (14.01)
That rookie hype machine will start picking up some steam for Williams as we get closer to training camp. He’s got aa decent shot at being the team’s #1 WR Week 1. And if that’s announced during training camp, his ADP will undoubtedly soar. It’s not often that you have an ultra-talented rookie WR took take at your leisure in the 14th round.

Chris Cooley, TE, Redskins (10.07)
Cooley has been an elite TE for several seasons, being taken well within the first 10 rounds for 4 seasons now. But a broken ankle during a Week 7 matchup has cooled the interest of early fantasy drafters. But we see his stock rising sharply once the consensus of drafters sees him in action at training camp. Heck, Cooley originally thought he’d be good to go in four weeks, so we’re not too worried about this lingering.

www.draftsharks.com

Interview with Bob Harris

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

Editor’s Note: I got my start as a fantasy writer in 1999 with the launch of Draft Sharks. But one of the people who I admired and who inspired me was Bob Harris, Senior Editor of the Pro Forecast Fantasy Football magazine. You’ll see why in this interview that he was kind enough to grant me recently.

- Lenny Pappano

LP: Bob, you are one of the pioneers of fantasy football writers. Tell us how you got your start.

BH: I was a graphic designer in the early 90s and playing with local buddies in Tucson, Arizona. I started doing a weekly newsletter to entertain the fellows in that league. Over the course of a couple of seasons, as more and more guys who were listed as probable in the newspaper earlier in the week ended up in street clothes on the sidelines, I started to wonder why there wasn’t more information available.

I suspected I was not alone. Certainly anybody playing Fantasy Football would be interested in knowing more.

So I started a service in 1993 called TFL Report. The TFL stood for The Fantasy League. It consisted of a weekly newsletter that I mailed out on Tuesdays. It also included a fax — the original FlashUpdate — that was sent on the subscriber’s choice of Thursday, Friday or Saturday afternoon. On that fax, we would have practice information for every team.

Shortly thereafter, in 1995, I started using the world-wide web to deliver the information and the evolution has been ongoing since.

LP: What do you think are the trademarks of a good fantasy writer/analyst? And how do avoid being a “hand holding” service for some guys?

BH: I think the keys are understanding the audience and remembering the mission.

First of all, the job is providing information to one of the most interested and engaged audiences on earth. You’re not going to fool these people. If you try, they’ll see right through you.

And for me, the mission is simple: Making sure my readers are the best-informed owner in their league at any given point in time.

It’s easy to get caught up in being an “expert.” My approach, however, has always been making sure I treat readers as the “experts” while focusing my efforts on helping them become that.

I realize the importance of delivering the information with sufficient personality and flair to set yourself apart from others. But in the end, I’m not the story. The information is the story.

LP: I remember a few years ago you and I were chatting, and I mentioned that I didn’t like NFL player interviews because too many folks would use what players said in order to form an opinion on how well a player would do. For example, a guy coming off an injury in a contract year isn’t about to tell you that his knee still hurts. I think I read that Jerome Bettis admitted to hiding an injury because he wanted his contract to get finalized. In any event, I recall you agreeing that player interviews were for entertainment value only? Have you changed your mind on that?

BH: Your points are valid. But I give the audience the credit for understanding them. The primary goal when I interview players is to get their perspective on our hobby. I want Fantasy owners to feel a connection with the guys they pencil into their lineup each week and finding out what a player thinks about our hobby helps make that connection.

Along the way, if I can probe a player in a way that helps Fantasy owners understand his approach to the game, his approach to preparation, his attitude. … I think all those can be useful.

Asking a player how many yards he’s going to get or how many touchdowns he’s going to score? Not very useful. I might ask about general goals but specific numbers aren’t of great interest, in part for the reason you suggest.

LP: On to some questions about 2010. Give us a guy who you think could be a First Round Bust this year.

BH: The guy who comes immediately to mind is Chris Johnson. He’s pretty much the consensus No. 1 pick heading into this season based solely on what he did last year. I’m not saying that’s a mistake; I’m saying that expecting Johnson to duplicate last year’s totals is a mistake… So given that No. 1 overall status, ongoing contract issues that some believe could run into training camp, and knowing that turnover among the Top-10 Fantasy running backs is high (more than 60 percent turnover in the five-year period I last studied — 2003 through 2007), I’ll count Johnson as a guy who is going to fall short of expectations.

I say all that realizing just how difficult it would be to pass on Johnson with that first pick overall. And yes; I would still pick him and hope for the best.

LP: Throw out a couple names of players who you think could have a breakout year.

BH: I think a player who is going to surprise a lot of people is Lions rookie running back Jahvid Best. There’s a reason Detroit traded back up into the first round to secure his services. With Kevin Smith’s immediate (and long-term) future in serious question, I think Best has a great opportunity — and the kind of speed necessary — to make those suggesting the Lions may have landed the player with the most potential to become the next Chris Johnson look smart.

And you won’t have to burn the first-pick overall to land him. …

I also think Joe Flacco is primed to pick up the pace. … Heading into his third season as a pro, Flacco worked hard to improve his arm strength, accuracy and durability while the Ravens added Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth at wideout and hired Jim Zorn as his position coach. Also worth noting: Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron plans to “significantly” increase the Ravens’ passing game packages this season. Bottom line? Flacco appears to be ready to flirt with Top-10 status.

LP: Is Dez Bryant gonna have a Randy Moss-like rookie season, or is he an over-hyped first-year guy?

BH: How about somewhere in between? Not to cop out, but assuming a Randy Moss-like rookie season isn’t in the cards (69 catches aren’t unreasonable, but I’m not looking for 17 touchdowns), I do expect Bryant to be the Week 1 starter opposite Miles Austin. But playing in a high-powered Dallas offense works for and against Bryant. There are plenty of targets, Austin, Jason Witten, Felix Jones and Marion Barber, all better versed in the offense than the newcomer. Who knows? Roy Williams could even come on a bit stronger playing a different role. Martellus Bennett could also emerge as more of a scoring and play-making threat.

So. … I look for a solid but less-than spectacular season from Bryant.

LP: Which rookie RB will have the best year in 2010?

BH: Based on what we know for sure, San Diego’s Ryan Mathews will get every opportunity to be that guy. Chargers coach Norv Turner has made no secret of his plan to make the first-rounder every bit as important to the rushing attack as LaDainian Tomlinson was. Specifically, Turner has talked 250 carries and 40 catches when discussing expectations for Mathews.

And while Tomlinson has made his opinion — that poor blocking had more to do with his decline than his own eroding skills — well known, the Chargers obviously disagree. In addition to letting Tomlinson walk, the team selected one running back, Mathews, one tight end (in the seventh round) and no offensive linemen in April’s draft.

LP: Got a guy you like with your final pick this year? A super sleeper not getting much attention?

BH: I think there’s a rookie receiver I like with that last skill-player pick (I’m not counting kickers or defenses): Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams, who might be the second coming of Antonio Bryant — for better and maybe worse. Although the Bucs selected Arrelious Benn ahead of Williams (second and fourth rounds, respectively), those who follow the team closely report that team officials considered Williams the second-best receiver in the draft. Character issues are a concern (and the reason he lasted until Round 4), but it’s not hard to find those who believe the former Syracuse star is capable of emerging as the most explosive playmaker in this year’s draft. I agree — Josh Freeman willing.

LP: What new features do you have on the site or in your magazines this year?

BH: We are unveiling our new FootballDiehards.com Mock Draft site, I urge you to visit and give it a try. Lots of cool features I’m sure you’ll find very useful. We’re also going to be making all four of our magazines, the Fantasy Football Pro Forecast, DraftBook, Cheatsheets and Football Diehards available to readers in a digital format to go along with the standard newsstand edition.

And as we did last year, anybody purchasing any of the four magazines will receive our FootballDiehards.com premium content — the pre-season AugustUpdate and regular-season FlashUpdate — absolutely free of charge.

www.draftsharks.com

NFL Suspension Flow Chart

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

by Brett Barclay

I know little about law despite an A- in a media law class my junior year of college. I also know little about assault, as a male that stands 5’11” and weighs 175 pounds. I don’t know the trials and tribulations and the burden of being an NFL player that a lot of these guys so vehemently carry on their shoulders. I know your life is hard, athlete — you tell Bob Ley every Sunday morning.

But what I really, really don’t get is football law. This all stemmed from the Vince Young strip club incident this weekend. The first reports became available Sunday afternoon claiming V.Y. – “the next black quarterback to win a Superbowl” – was a prime suspect in a strip club assault. If found guilty, it’s an open-and-shut, throw-four-games-at-him, end-of-story, run-of-the-mill NFL assault case. A couple hours later, Draft Sharks HQ hears that there is visual evidence of assault via security camera. But Young is only going to be fined $500. What!?

In March, you had Ben Roethlisberger allegedly sexually assault a chick at a bar in some podunk Georgia town – allegedly witnessed by some drunk college kids, and you’re throwing the book at B-Roeth? For crying out loud, there are guys that gave away a few tabs of acid at a Phish concert that are doing 3 years.

In my mind, the NFL suspension policy looks a little something like this:

 

www.draftsharks.com

The Joy of Creating Fantasy Football Team Names

Thursday, June 10th, 2010

by Lenny Pappano

It’s about that time of year when the Draftsharks.com staff is done with our 2010 fantasy football player rankings, and so we turn for a moment to other weighty matters. Like coming up with fantasy football team names.

My favorites from a couple of my 2009 teams were:

“She Begged for Both Inches” (who needs Enzyte?!)

“My Mamma Peanut” (If you watch the Kevin Garnett interview after the Celtics won their 2008 NBA Championship, he gives a shout out to My Mamma Peanut… whoever that is, I loved the interview and adopted it as a team name)

A few more that we dug up in a Google search rendered these gems from Gridironexperts.com:

“Multiple Scorgasms” (for the chicks)

“Romosexual Tendencies” (for Cowboy fans with a man-crush on their QB)

“Show Me Ya TDs” (for the Mardi Gras crowd)

“Addai in Your Sleep (for Dr. Kevorkian supporters)

“A Vick in a Box” (for the Justin Timberlake fans)

“Reverse Cowgirls” (for fans of the Cowboy cheerleaders)

“Urine Trouble” (for urologists)

“Victorious Secret” (for everyone)

“The Guns of Hoculi” (for Broncos fans)

“Remember the Trojans” (for USC fans and unwed mothers)

“Tom Brady’s Inglorious Bastards” (See above)

Still thinking about some team fantasy football names for 2010, but here’s my short list so far:

“Two Flush Dump” (the toilet in our new office needs some help)

“Golden Tate’s Donuts” (so good, they’re worth robbing the place)

“Bill’s Wang” (in honor of the Bills’ historic draft pick)

So there you have it. Make sure to burn some time at work in the next few weeks to come up with your own list. And please feel free to come back here and share.

www.draftsharks.com

ESPN Fantasy Football: The Magazine I Love to Hate

Tuesday, June 8th, 2010

by Brett Barclay

I hate the ESPN Fantasy Football magazine. It’s slick. It’s colorful. It’s even more hip than Stuart Scott – without the izzel, shizzel, hizzel drivel that the talented sportscaster regularly pukes on his viewers. But, well, I still hate it.

Flip through the back of the magazine, and you’ll see some intriguing and unique stats from KC Joyner. Check out the team pages, and you’ll get a nice nugget on each NFL team’s red zone tendencies. Good stuff. So, I should love it, right? Wrong.

Maybe it’s because when I think of ESPN Fantasy Football, I think of Suzy Kolber picking the Steelers defense in the 4th round of their fantasy mock draft…or was it the 3rd round? Or I think of Sean Salisbury “mixing it up” on air with John Clayton. Kinda like watching two 70-year-old women in a bikini-clad cat fight. Just a bad visual, man.

But reading their 2010 ESPN fantasy football mag brings my queasiness to a new level. Even casually flipping through the player profiles it can be taxing to anyone who loves fantasy football.

Let’s start with the front cover. The upper right corner blares: “64 Surefire Sleepers.” Ya’know, after most of last year’s “59 Can’t Miss Sleepers” unsurprisingly missed, you’d think maybe they’d tone it down. I guess the more sleepers you guess at, the greater the chance you have to be right. Ahh, but it gets better…

Let your eyes wander down the glossy cover and you’ll notice The Worldwide Leader’s “13 Inspired Tips To Winning It All.” Look, they even put inspired Tip #1 on the cover for you: “Take Chris Johnson.” (Wow! No kidding. Take Chris Johnson. Here is one of the top of my head: After you draft Chris Johnson, trade your 14th round pick for Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. Or how about this one: If you wanna win huge money, organize a fantasy football league in parts of Kenya where there is no knowledge of NFL football. Charge $25,000 per team. Bang – you’re in the money! I got a million fantasy football drafting tips just like it.)

The other 12 ESPN Fantasy Football mag tips can be found on page 11. For the most part they’re the Natty Light of fantasy football analysis – don’t take RBs over 30, get your handcuffs, start your studs. But one of them really caught my eye. Something I had never fathomed in all my years of drafting. Ken Daube – whose seldom used Twitter speaks only of lunches lost to meetings and computer role playing games – advises his readers to draft backups who play on the West Coast. The reasoning? NFL players that play late games are sometimes listed as questionable, so you should draft backups that also play late games just in case the starter’s injury puts him in jeopardy. And you know every league has the dope that’s gonna take everything too literally and end up with a team of Raiders, Seahawks and 49ers. We’re gonna advise against being that guy this year.

On page 58, they’ve pegged WR Michael Crabtree as a sleeper. Yes, that’s the same Michael Crabtree who was drafted 10th overall in 2008. And yes, that’s the same Michael Crabtree whose holdout, save for the Favre saga, was ESPN’s go to on a slow news day last summer. Hate to break it to you Bristol, but he’s not under anyone’s radar. You can point the finger at yourselves for that one.

I’ll be the first to admit, there is no sense in arguing another publication’s rankings – it’s about as constructive as a YouTube comment fight. But come on, you’re ranking players, why don’t you ya’know… rank them? Check it out — on page 57 they have Vincent Jackson as the 10th ranked WR, Carolina’s Steve Smith at 11 and Greg Jennings at 12. Cool, certainly not unfeasible. But this is what I don’t get. They project Jackson for a 69-1201-8 stat line. Steve Smith for 70-1164-8 and Jennings for 80-1220-8. I’d give anything to be in the ESPN office pool. Heck, I’d give anything just to get a copy of their scoring system. Remember Kolber taking that Steelers D in the 4th round? I think it’s starting to make some sense.

But I think my favorite parts of this rag are these small subsections after each position ranking called “Injuries Atwitter.” Stephania Bell, of Eric Kuselias home-wrecking fame, takes the three most important injuries to monitor this offseason at each position and dedicates no more than 140 characters to them. And that unintentionally makes them hilarious, as they read like haikus about groins and knee screws. But it also makes them completely useless cause they are entirely too cryptic. So you’re telling me Shayne Graham’s year “has to go better”? Insightful.

Ok, I have to admit, I tapped out after I got done with the player rankings. Couldn’t really read much more. I mean, ESPN Fantasy Football magazine profiles and ranks 77 QBs, 122 RBs, 125 WRs, 62 TEs and 38 (yes, 38) Ks… I get the feeling if they could have added CFL teams, they would have written 40 team defense profiles. Enough already.

www.draftsharks.com