Follow Draft Sharks on: follow us on twitter twitter | follow us using rss rss feed | use our email updates email updates

Archive for May, 2010

LenDale: Pothead, Washed-Up, or Both?

Sunday, May 30th, 2010

by Jared Smola

What a whirlwind month it’s been for LenDale White. He was reunited with ex-USC coach Pete Carroll in a draft day trade that sent him to Seattle. After numerous reports that he’d dropped weight and was in the best shape of his life, we were ready to slot White aggressively high in our 2010 fantasy football rankings.

And then out of nowhere, White was released by the Seahawks last Friday. The organization issued a statement saying White simply wasn’t fitting in with the team. But there was clearly more to the story.

Sure enough, a few hours later, NFL Network’s Jason LaCanfora passed along the news that White was facing a 4-game suspension for failing a drug test.

So what does the future hold for the man formerly known as LenWhale? Is he just a pothead who is still capable of producing at the NFL level? Or is he officially washed-up?

Ask the Seahawks and they’ll tell you it’s the latter. The organization admitted that it knew about White’s impending suspension when it released him. But that wasn’t the main reason for the move, or so they say.

“It became apparent at this time that LenDale was not ready to be a member of the Seattle Seahawks,” Seahawks GM John Schneider said. “It just did not appear to be the right fit at this point in our program.” Sources close to the team say that even though White lost 30 pounds this offseason, his work ethic and conditioning were poor.

If that’s the truth, it’s tough to imagine White making an impact in the NFL ever again. He landed in the perfect spot in Seattle. Reunited with his former college coach – a guy who always believed in him – on a roster devoid of a true #1 RB, he had a shot to be The Man. If White couldn’t win the starting job in Seattle – or even make it to training camp – he won’t win one anywhere.

But what if the accusations of his laziness are overstated? What if White really has rededicated himself and just cant quit the Ganj? If that’s the case, then there’s a talented RB waiting to be scooped up by a team in need.

The Bengals make some sense. They don’t like Bernard Scott as much as I do and are looking for a true backup for Cedric Benson.

How about the Rams? They have absolutely nothing behind injury-prone Steven Jackson.

Or what about the Patriots taking on another reclamation project?

The bet here is that White lands in Cincinnati. After his 4-game suspension is up, he could take on 8-10 carries per game to keep Benson fresh after his 342-touch 2009 season.

But I can’t see him making much of an impact wherever he ends up. The fact that Pete Carroll didn’t want him says a lot. I think White’s just a washed-up pothead.

www.draftsharks.com

More on Chris Johnson’s Contract Situation…

Friday, May 21st, 2010

by Jared Smola

ESPN’s Paul Kusharsky and Football Outsiders’ J.I. Halsell posted a really informative article about Titans RB Chris Johnson’s current contract situation.

 

A couple key points from the piece:

 

1. In his first 2 years in the league, Johnson has actually earned $7.27 million.  Not too shabby, and more than most people who just look at the bare-bone basics of his deal realize.

 

2. Under the 30% rule, the Titans are allowed to give Johnson a 30% raise on BOTH his 2009 base salary of $385,000 AND his option proration of $965,000.  In short, it means Johnson is eligible for a salary increase of $405,000.  What makes it really interesting is that 49ers LB Patrick Willis’ potential increase was $498,000 – just a bit more than Johnson.  If Willis and the Niners were able to work out a long-term deal (5 years, $50 million), Johnson and the Titans should be able to do the same.

 

Here’s a link to the full article: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/11873/chris-johnson-contract-math

 

www.draftsharks.com

Holdout History: Will it bite Chris Johnson in the ass?

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

by Kevin English

 

The Chris Johnson holdout has officially gotten our attention. And if you have one of the first couple picks in your fantasy football draft this summer, it should be an attention grabber for you, too.

By now, you know the story. CJ2K wants more money — like the majority of NFL players — and is threatening to miss regular season action if he doesn’t get a raise on the $550,000 he’s slated to make in 2010. Recently, Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk came forward and voiced his opinion on the situation, suggesting the Titans superstar should holdout. “Chris has outplayed his rookie deal,” Faulk told the Tennessean. “He has beyond exceeded the expectation where he was drafted. He has exceeded the money he’s making, the Titans know it and everyone in the league knows it.” Quite frankly, Faulk is 100% correct. Johnson was the most productive RB in the league last season, and should be paid accordingly.

So why isn’t he?

Well, the Titans have cited the “30 percent rule,” a result of the NFL’s current labor problems. Basically, the rule puts restrictions on the growth of base salaries of renegotiated existing contracts in the uncapped year. As a result, the Titans would likely have to give Johnson a guaranteed signing bonus in the neighborhood of $40 million to $50 million, or whatever figure satisfies him. Remember, the base salary is not to be tinkered with.

We have no idea how this situation will play out. What we do know is how several similar holdout scenarios have gone down in the past – and the impact they’ve had on fantasy football teams.

Let’s take a look at a few recent examples:

Steven Jackson – 2008
Steve Jax held out for more dough as he entered the final year of his rookie deal. It took until mid-August for him to end the holdout, but the Rams workhorse eventually got paid. #39 missed 4 games due to injury that year, yet somehow managed to eclipse 1,400 total yards. 25 touches per game probably had something to do with it. That’s what you want in a top-tier fantasy football RB.

Larry Johnson – 2007
L.J. missed 25 days of training camp when he held out for a new deal in the summer of ‘07. Finally, on August 21st he agreed to a new contract with the Chiefs that would pay him a total of $43.2 million. He struggled on the field, averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per carry in the 8 games he played. And the rest, he watched from the sideline thanks to a broken foot suffered in Week 9.

Cedric Benson – 2005
A 36-day holdout — including an absence throughout the entirety of training camp — started Benson’s pro career off on the wrong foot. Ced-Ben caught the injury bug, falling victim to an MCL sprain that kept him out of 6 games. He managed a mediocre 4.1 yards per carry during the ‘05 season and failed to record a TD.

Chris Johnson’s holdout situation could go a multitude of ways. If he misses substantial time in training camp or the preseason, we might have to bump him down our rankings. Durability was a minor concern heading into this season, considering the huge spike in touches he saw last year (408). And given the injury problems past holdout RBs have had, we’d be a bit worried about that trend continuing. Certainly, Johnson is a phenomenal athlete. But he is human, and a long contract dispute could severely hamper his 2010 fantasy football projections.

www.draftsharks.com

Big Ben: The Fantasy Impact of Being a Douche

Thursday, May 13th, 2010

by Lenny Pappano

This is the time of year when we at Draftsharks.com are crafting the player profiles and fantasy football projections for each player. There are a lot of factors we take into account: Surrounding talent, coaching philosophy, last year’s performance, etc. But this year, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger poses a new challenge. We have to consider the psychological factor of being the NFL’s marquee douche bag for 2010. 

This week, Ben completed an NFL-mandated behavioral evaluation. Not to short-change the profession of psychologists, but the league could have saved some time and money and gone with this non-clinical evaluation: Roethlisberger is a pervert who seemingly can’t keep his dick in his pants while in public, and while in the company of women he has just met (otherwise apparently referred to by Ben as his “bitches” if an SI article is to be believed).  Yes, Ben seems to think he is above the standards of common decency – not to mention the law. He should knock it off before the male relative of some young woman he’s accused of raping puts a bullet in his head. Just a bit of free advice.  
But I digress. From the vantage point of accessing Ben’s fantasy football value for 2010, we already know he’s going to miss between 4-6 games. What we don’t know is how he’s going to perform under the pressure of being universally despised. Let’s face it, the Rooney family wanted to get rid of the Pro Bowler and Super-Bowl-winning QB because he’s a douche. And many from the Steelers Nation were whole-heartedly backing up that notion this spring.

Ben’s half-assed and half-hearted written apology – in which he noted his legal innocence – didn’t do anything to assuage the people who now revile him. In fact, it only served to underscore the arrogance of a young athlete who has been on tilt for quite awhile. It now remains to be seen how he responds on the field this fall – when most of his spring has been spent with lawyers and behavioral analysts. Personally, I hope Ben finds some redemption. Not the kind contrived by a publicist – but the kind borne of the human heart. So far, I’m not betting that will happen any time this year. And I think his performance as a player will suffer much.

3-Down RBs

Thursday, May 13th, 2010

by Jared Smola

The 3-down back is quickly becoming a thing of the past.  Teams are shying away from over-working one guy, instead opting to rely on multiple RBs to get the job done.  There’s the classic — and hated — RB-by-committee like we see in Carolina and Miami.  And then there are teams that have a go-to guy, but spell him on 3rd-downs or near the goal line.  But there are still a few true 3-down backs out there.  And they’re even more valuable in fantasy football than ever.  Here’s a look at the guys who will consistently play on all downs and in all areas of the field this season:

 

Adrian Peterson, Vikings

He was a borderline 3-down back last season.  But with Chester Taylor gone, there’s no question about it now.  AP set a career-high with 43 catches last year and could set a new high in 2010.

 

Chris Johnson, Titans

He took on 3-down duties last season as LenDale White was phased out of the offense.  Just 200 pounds, but this guy has a nose for the end zone.

 

Frank Gore, 49ers

The Niners have added some big backs the past 2 seasons in Glen Coffee and Anthony Dixon, but Gore should still handle the goal line work this year.  And he’s a serious threat in the passing game, hauling in 40+ balls in each of the past 4 seasons.

 

Maurice Jones-Drew

He’s the prototypical 3-down back — strong enough to handle the tough short-yardage stuff but versatile enough to play on passing downs.  Count on another 325+ touches for MJD in 2010.

 

Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers

Probably the most under-the-radar 3-down back.  With Willie Parker gone, this is Mendenhall’s backfield.  He averaged 4.6 yards per carry last year and caught 25 balls.

 

Ray Rice, Ravens

Willis McGahee is still lurking in the shadows, but he’s not there to steal goal line carries or play on 3rd-downs.  McGahee will play just enough to keep Rice fresh.

 

Steven Jackson, Rams

A true workhorse — almost to a fault.  Steve Jax racked up 375 touches last season and has a ridiculous 1,379 in the past 4 years.  It’s a legitimate concern, especially after he underwent back surgery this offseason.  He’s a major injury risk, but you can count on 20+ touches every game Jackson plays.

 

www.draftsharks.com

A Sneak Peek at the Sneak Peeks

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

by Jared Smola

We’ll be posting our 2010 Sneak Peek Player Rankings next week. Lenny Pappano, Jim Coventry, Mark Moyer, and I are individually putting together our lists. We’ll then average those numbers and post the results with commentary.
But just to whet your whistle, here are my top-5 at each position:
QB
1. Drew Brees – still the best combination of talent and situation
2. Aaron Rodgers – only getting better, and so is his offense
3. Peyton Manning – money in the bank; Garcon and Collie emerging
4. Tony Romo – too many weapons to not post a top-5 finish
5. Matt Schaub – first healthy season last year… can he do it again?
RB
1. Chris Johnson – a ton of touches last year, but he doesn’t take many big hits
2. Adrian Peterson – just now entering his prime
3. Ray Rice – Willis McGahee is the only concern
4. Maurice Jones-Drew – faded down the stretch last year, but consistent workload makes him a safe pick
5. Frank Gore – the centerpiece of an up-and-coming offense
WR
1. Andre Johnson – “injury risk” label is gone
2. Miles Austin – ultra-talented and Romo loves him; won’t see many double teams with Bryant, Witten, et al
3. Larry Fitzgerald – has done fine in the past with Matt Leinart under center
4. Calvin Johnson – love what they added to the offense this year; no more triple teams for Megatron
5. Greg Jennings – came on strong at the end of last season
TE
1. Jermichael Finley – might be the most talented TE in the game
2. Jason Witten – was only missing the TDs last year… they’ll come
3. Dallas Clark – golden as long as Manning is around
4. Antonio Gates – contract year
5. Vernon Davis – won’t score 13 TDs again