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by Brett Barclay
I’ve got a pretty solid Friday routine. Get home from the bar around 2:15. Put on my Syracuse Basketball shorts. Pour myself a bowl of Cherrios. Plop myself on the couch. And painfully turn on The World Wide Leader, because in my buzzed state I truly believe that “it will be good for my job.”
But as I fell asleep to that warming glow last weekend, I heard Trey Wingo say something to the effect of “Jay Cutler sucks!” That got me thinking — most of my fantasy cohorts actually believe this crap. And why wouldn’t they? ESPN is accessible, loves Boston and New York, and won’t ever, EVER, stray from conventional thinking – essentially any female in a Woody Allen movie. So, after a week of TiVoing NFL Live, my brain was a soggy ball of clichés. Coaches “just wanting to get better.” Teams going “back and forth all day.” And Brett Favre being “just a kid out there.”
But after my quasi-experiment, one thing stood out. There is a big difference between ESPN-good and fantasy football-good. And there is an even bigger difference between ESPN-suck and fantasy football-suck.
I present you exhibit 1a and 1b – 2008 Joe Flacco and 2009 Mark Sanchez. As a rookie last year, Flacco started all 16 games for the Ravens, won 11 of them, and even took his team to an AFC Championship. If you lived in a lead boat for the 2008 season and all you had was a TV that showed NFL Live on repeat, Joe Flacco was a golden god by way of ESPN-talk.
In the fantasy realm, Flacco finished 20th among QBs, barely worth a roster spot. Never threw for 300 yards, cracked 250 once and had 5 multi-INT games.
We saw the Flacco effect with Mark Sanchez this year – well, before the Buffalo game. The only difference is that it was magnified ten fold because he’s in New York and he’s so darn cute. Those kind of things work for ESPN.
And we all saw what happened to Flacco in the Buffalo game. Need I say more about his fantasy value?
I needed to find more players that fit into this theory, so I started to compile a list of players that met the following criteria:
· Generally considered a “bad” player by mainstream media.
· Had a bit of ESPN-hype surrounding him this offseason that led to semi-unreasonable expectations.
· Is still performing in the top-20 at his position (fantasy-wise) despite being “bad”
· Most importantly, has a favorable outlook for the rest of the season
To my surprise, the list was short. Torry Holt was close, but sat just outside of most criteria. Clinton Portis was another, but again, he was teetering on the edge of most criteria. But the one player that stuck out like a sore thumb was Jay Cutler.
First of all, Cutler has a bad attitude. You can’t deny that. The guy acts like all of the chairs in his house are made of razorblades. And on top of that, he’s kinda ugly. If ESPN rated players like my buddies rate girls he’d be a 4:22 [1]. These are key elements to unnecessary criticism that a lot of players get from The Worldwide Leader. With that said, Cutler’s not getting off free here either – not in this blog. Some of that criticism is warranted. His 1st game as a Bear was atrocious — 1 TD, 4 INTs. And his most recent game as a Bear wasn’t any better — 1 TD, 3 INTs. But in ESPN’s bizarre world, those are the games that get magnified. The top-10 (fantasy) performances in the 4 games in between are what the ESPN crowd is not seeing.
So here it is. I am issuing a “Trade Now for Jay Cutler” advisory. The advisory is in effect until Sunday, any later and you’ll be out of luck. I say this because Cutler is on the verge of blowing up and it starts Sunday against the Browns.
Check it out:
First — and this is more of a rule of thumb for trading this time of year — Cutler has already had his bye week. So in that regard you’re getting an extra ounce of value out of any trade because it’s guaranteed fantasy points that otherwise you would not have.
For the number-crunchers, take a look at his split stats over the course of his career. Historically, November is Cutler’s best month of football with 13 TDs in 9 games, just 8 INTs, and an average of just under 250 yards per game.
But most importantly, it’s the schedule. The Bears have 10 games remaining. These are 8 of those opponents with their pass defense rank in parenthesis: Cleveland (24th), Arizona (29th), San Francisco (21st), Minnesota (20th), St. Louis (25th), Baltimore (23rd), Minnesota again, and Detroit (30th). And those other 2 opponents, Green Bay and Philadelphia, are both in the bottom-half of the league in passing TDs allowed.
And finally, despite what ESPN tells you, this offense isn’t that bad. There are plenty of passing options. These weak defenses in the upcoming weeks will spark the running game. And every week, Cutler becomes more familiar with a Bears offense that is still relatively new to him.
Find your Cutler owner, pray that he’s an ESPN junkie, and make this trade. He’s the 16th ranked QB in most formats right now. I’m betting he finished the season inside the top-10.
[1] We have this system that we call “The Game Clock.” Someone asks, “what time’s the game?” Other friend spots the female and responds using an hour and minute. The hour is the chick’s overall rating and the minute is the estimated age.
