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Archive for August, 2009

The Matt Hasselbeck Debate

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

by Kevin English

   
Much of the recent banter around the DS office has centered on Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck. 

Personally, I’m a huge supporter.  I think he’s a top-12 guy that potentially sneaks into the top-10. 

Here’s my laundry list of reasons why I believe in this former Super Bowl QB.

 -Talent- For starters, I still believe in Hasselbeck’s talent.  He’s proven to be a productive fantasy QB in the past.  He has seasons of 28 TDs (in 2007, finishing as the QB7) and 24 TDs (in 2005 finishing as the QB6) under his belt. 

- Weapons- I believe his supporting cast is quite underrated.  New Seahawk T.J Houshmandzadeh will be the most talented WR Hasselbeck’s had to work with in his career, yet he’s been deemed as too old and on the decline.  Simply put, Housh’s lack of production last season can be blamed on Carson Palmer’s injury.  A Ryan Fitzpatrick led offense would surely derail any WRs fantasy value. 

–The recovery of Deion Branch and Nate Burleson are crucial to Hasselbeck’s fantasy prospects.  And admittedly, neither guy is a safe bet for the 2009 season, as both are coming off serious leg injuries.  But both guys have made cameos in the preseason, a good sign for the Seahawks offense.  My money is on one of the two staying healthy and producing this season, with Burleson being my guy if forced to choose between them.

–Rookie WR Deon Butler has been a pleasant surprise ever since May minicamps.  He’s not built to play outside at 5’10, but his quick feet and 4.3 speed will give Hasselbeck a solid target in the slot when called upon. 

–Lastly, look for 2008 rookie breakout TE John Carlson to be heavily targeted in the passing game.  Carlson burst on the scene last year and became the Hawks most reliable option, accumulating a 55-627-5 line.  His size (6’5 251) and skills as a blocker might be utilized more this season thanks to the O-line woes — which will be addressed later — but there’s no doubt he’ll act as #8’s safety valve.

- Offensive Philosophy- The Seahawks will throw the ball….a lot.  Now I’m well aware new OC Greg Knapp has fielded a top-10 rushing attack in each of his 8 years on the job.  But talk of Knapp’s rushing accomplishments is rather overrated.  I mean, come on — any OC with a QB that ran as much as Michael Vick did would field one of the league’s premier ground attacks.  And I don’t think Matt Hasselbeck will be rushing for anywhere near 1,000 yards this season (or any season).  Once Knapp realizes (actually, I’m sure he already has) that they don’t have the kind of RBs — or run-blocking line — to have consistent rushing success, he will be forced to lean heavily on the passing game.  And with short yardage specialist T.J Duckett out of the mix, Hasselbeck should do even more damage near the goal-line.  Look for the 6’2 Housh to see increased looks in that area.

- Health- The soon to be 34-year old missed 9 games in 2008 thanks to a back injury.  His performance suffered as a result of trying to play through the injury, throwing 5 TDs and a whopping 10 INTs.  But this offseason, all signs have been positive for Hasselbeck.  His personal trainer (of 4 years) said that Hasselbeck looks, “by far the best he’s ever looked since I’ve been with him.”  He’s lost 8 pounds too, putting him in a more comfortable playing weight of 225 lbs.  With no setbacks to speak of, Hasselbeck’s health is not something that concerns me heading into the season.

-His ADP- Hasselbeck is approaching an ADP in the 10th round.  He’s currently being taken as the QB16, with guys like Matt Cassel and Eli Manning going before him.  If I was Hass, I’d be insulted.   In my mind, he’s as good a bet as anyone in fantasy to out produce their ADP.

- Schedule- Hasselbeck will be playing 6 games in the relatively weak NFC West.  St. Louis had the highest rated pass defense among NFC West teams last season, and they ranked 19th.  Add in games against Jacksonville, Houston, Tampa Bay and Detroit, and Hass has the makings of a manageable slate of games.  Yes, defenses change in the NFL, but it’s comforting to know he won’t be facing defensive stalwarts like the Steelers, Ravens, Eagles, or Giants.  He definitely has one of the more favorable schedules among QBs.

- Preseason performance- I know, I know.  It’s the preseason.  But Hasselbeck has looked pretty damn good.  In Seattle’s first game, Hass played minimally and completed 3of 5 passes for just 27 yards.  But in Saturday’s matchup with the Broncos, he flashed his pre-injury talent, and showed a fluent ability to move around the pocket.  And the thing is, Hass rarely had to move at all.  The Hawks O-line played shockingly well, despite giving up 3 sacks (all of the coverage variety).  He continuously took advantage of having an ample amount of time and showed good chemistry with his WRs, throwing for 171 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INT’s (Check out some of his highlights here).  Most importantly, Hass showed no ill-effects from his back injury. 

-Personal Season Projection- 3,455 yards/25 TDs/16 INT

So there you have it. While there is plenty I like about Hasselbeck this year, I can’t deny one massive factor that could derail his fantasy season: the offensive line.

Here are a few tid bits about the Seahawks’ single weakest unit.

-Offensive line woes- The Hawks can’t seem to catch a break with their offensive line.  In 2008, all 5 starting linemen ended the season on injured reserve.  And this season, the team is suffering through a similar fate.

-Longtime left tackle Walter Jones will miss at least the first month of the season with knee problems.

-Starting center Chris Spencer suffered a thigh injury in Saturdays’ preseason game and will be out of action for 4-6 weeks.

-Veteran guard Mike Wahle was released by the team back in July after failing his physical.  Whale was slow to recover from offseason shoulder surgery, and has retired.

-Tackle Ray Willis has missed significant time in training camp with knee soreness.  Willis has a history of knee problems as well.

-Versatile veterans Cory Withrow and Grey Ruegamer have also missed significant during training camp.

The unit, despite playing well against Denver, is likely to be average at best in the beginning of the season.  If Spencer and Jones can return within their 4-6 week timetable, then I’ll feel a whole hell of a lot more confident in Hasselbeck’s outlook.  But for now, I’ll remain optimistic that the Hawks’ backups can get the job done until the injured veterans return.

www.draftsharks.com

Michael Crabtree: Shut up and sign

Friday, August 7th, 2009

by Jared Smola

Someone should point Michael Crabtree to WR Mike Williams’ Wikipedia page.  Because about half way down it, he’d find this little nugget:

 

Prior to the 2004 NFL Draft, and after Williams’ sophomore season at USC, Mike made a strategic error that would cost him his NCAA eligibility and require him to sit out the entire 2004 college football season. Many believe his blunder led to a deterioration of his football skills and ultimately had a profound effect on his subsequent pro career.

 

Sound familiar?  The circumstances surrounding Crabtree’s threat to sit out the 2009 season and re-enter the 2010 NFL Draft are different — and more ridiculous — but the results could turn out the same.

 

After Williams was barred from entering the 2004 draft and also prohibited from returning to college, his career fell apart.  He was lucky enough to be selected 10th overall by the Lions in ’05, but he never put up more than 350 yards in a season and his career is likely over at age 25.

 

Will the same thing happen to Crabtree?  Maybe.  But one thing’s for sure — his recent threat is selfish, greedy, and down-right stupid.

 

First of all, where does he get this idea that he deserves to be paid like a top-5 pick because he should have been one?  Am I missing something, or do a couple players drop in the NFL Draft every year?  Take Brady Quinn, for example.  In the 2007 Draft, he was pegged as a top-10 pick.  But he slipped all the way to the Browns at 22.  Tough luck, but he didn’t whine when he got paid like the late 1st-round pick that he was.  Crabtree clearly thinks he’s above general NFL standards.

 

Of course, this threat to sit out the season if he doesn’t get the coin he’s looking for could just be a bluff.  But let’s say it’s not.  Let’s say Crabtree does sit out the season and doesn’t play organized football for the next year. 

 

When he re-enters the 2010 draft, there’s no guarantee he’d be a top-10 pick.  There are a couple of other big-time WRs expected to enter the league next year — namely Illinois’ Arrelious Benn and Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant.  It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see either guy being taken before Crabtree.  Especially considering he won’t be able to attend the NFL Combine or work out for other teams since the 49ers will retain his rights up until the 2010 Draft begins.

 

Maybe 49ers HC Mike Singletary should pull down his pants in front of Crabtree.  That’d get him to sign!

www.draftsharks.com

 

Don’t Draft These Players

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

by Don Phillips

Editor’s Note: Phillips is a guest writer. His opinions do not reflect those of DraftSharks.com

Quarterbacks:
 
Jay Cutler: {ADP: QB9} Cutler’s trade to Chicago will definitely hurt his fantasy numbers across the board.  Going from a pass-friendly offense to a run-oriented team will decrease his passing attempts significantly. In turn, he may eventually force some throws and a few of them will lead to interceptions. Can you seriously see Cutler developing a cohesiveness relationship with Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Rashied Davis this season? Let someone else over-draft him.
 
Carson Palmer: {ADP: QB13} You can throw out last season due to injuries. This season he will have to adapt to a revamped group of wide outs besides dealing with the immature behavior of Chad Johnson. Cincinnati’s pass- blocking will be a big issue for Palmer too. The Bengals allowed 51 sacks last year — 3rd most in the NFL.
 
 
Running Backs:
 
Marshawn Lynch: {ADP: RB22} Lynch will miss the first 3 games of the season due to the league suspension. When he comes back, expect him to split time with the nifty Fred Jackson, trimming Lynch’s numbers even more. Lastly, Buffalo will pass more this season with the arrival of Terrell Owens.
 
Joseph Addai: {ADP: RB21} In his first 3 seasons, Addai has reached double digits in touchdowns only once. And he’s not likely to do that this year with rookie RB Donald Brown in town. In addition, Addai is very injury prone.
 
Jamal Lewis: {ADP: RB35} Lewis has averaged over 3.6 yards per carry just once in the past 4 seasons. At this point, he’s nothing more than a glorified goal-line back. And on the Browns inept offense, he won’t be using that skill too often.
 
 
Wide Receivers:
 
Marques Colston: {ADP: WR10} Colston could not produce last season while returning from a busted thumb. For one reason or another, Colston just couldn’t get in rhythm with “Mr. Perfect” Drew Brees. New Orleans just has too many talented receivers.
 
Terrell Owens: {ADP: WR14} Crazy? Maybe so. In Owens’ last 2 seasons, his stats has fallen somewhat significantly. Who’s better at quarterback, Romo
or Edwards?
 
Braylon Edwards: {ADP: WR16} Edwards has not proven to be a consistent wide out in his last 3 years, especially in 2008 when he only scored 3 times. In late July, Edwards failed his physical for undisclosed reasons and was placed on the Non-Football Injury list. This could impact his availability and reliability heading into the 2009 campaign, making him a potential headache to own.