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Archive for July, 2009

The Twitter Revolution

Thursday, July 16th, 2009

by Brett Barclay

It was August 1st, 2004. Dolphins RB Ricky Williams announced his retirement on his personal website, runrickyrun.com, at the tender age of 27. Back then, Twitter wasn’t even a glimmer in the internet’s eye, blogging was seen as 2nd rate news, and very few players had personal websites. The season prior to his retirement I caught on to runrickyrun.com and would check for updates every few days. Williams posted pictures, art, stories, etc. But once in a while he’d divulge an injury that the media hadn’t picked up on, or a player that wouldn’t be starting next week that none of the networks had announced. I thought that was the coolest thing around – news directly from the source, uncensored, unedited.
A few years later players began to regularly update blogs, but they were usually a promotion through the team’s website. Essentially, players were really limited in what they could talk about since the organization that paid them was the one editing their thoughts for fans to see. Have you ever tried to read Peyton Manning’s blog? If you could read a dosage of Nyquil instead of drink it, Manning’s blog would be the extra strength stuff.
In recent months, the NFL has caught on to social media more than ever, namely by way of Twitter. Everyone from Lions’ WR Keary Colbert to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has setup a Twitter account to interact with fans and other players. All of the NFL Network’s on-air personalities deliver regular Tweets as well. Most of the players keep it pretty normal but users like Chad Ochocinco, Shawne Merriman, Larry Fitzgerald and Kevin Boss have been really active, detailing workouts, team events, even meals. This is all unfiltered. It’s not a journalist’s interpretation of a quote. And it’s not an editor’s interpretation of a journalist’s interpretation. It’s the rawest form of player news and you can’t get it anywhere else.
I’m not saying that we’re going to be finding groundbreaking stuff in these 150 character streams of consciousness, but you’ll find some things about players that you wouldn’t know otherwise. For example, all week Kevin Boss has been training at a place called Performance Training Center, rated one of the 10 toughest gyms in the U.S. by Muscle Fitness magazine.
Despite media reports of him being unfocused, Chad Ochocinco seems to be working just as hard as anyone this offseason. He’s putting in his own personal 2-a-days, boxing, and training with the Inter Milan soccer club at UCLA for a couple of days. Meanwhile, Terrell Owens, who is just as active on the site, seems to be mentioning his VH1 show more than any offseason workouts.
Obviously, take it with a grain of salt. Not everyone is Ocho and T.O., and not all of these players Tweet everything in their daily routine. But I’ll bet that a lot of relevant fantasy news is broken via Twitter this season.

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Let’s Talk Schedules

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009

by Kevin English

It’s all too often as fantasy players we find ourselves making tough lineup decisions. Do I start player X — one of my top picks — against one of the top defenses in the league? Or do I bench him in favor of player Y, a less talented later round pick who’s going against one of the league’s weaker defenses? While those kinds of decisions are inevitable during a fantasy season, a pre-draft peak at your targeted player’s schedules will give you a better idea of how a guy might perform, and when. Below are a few nuggets about how I perceive certain players will stack up against certain defenses. Last year’s numbers are used to show how effective or ineffective a defense was vs. the run or pass. Yes, nobody returns the same starting 11 on defense from the year prior, and thus the rankings are sure to be different — perhaps drastic in some cases. But examining some trends — including taking a look at key additions and losses through free agency and the draft — will give us a gauge on how tough of a matchup they could pose for some key fantasy players.
Note: Numbers in parentheses indicate the teams’ pass or run defense rank from 2008.
Favorable schedules – RBs
1.) Chris Johnson faces just 3 top-10 run defenses from 2008. (Dolphins: 10th; Steelers: 2nd; Jets: 7th)
2.) Julius Jones faces just 2 top-10 run defenses from 2008. (Bears: 5th; Minnesota: 1st)
3.) Steve Slaton faces 4 top-10 run defenses from 2008. (Jets: 7th; Titans: 6th – twice; Dolphins: 10th)
- Two of Johnson’s divisional opponents — Indianapolis and Houston — gave up over 122 yards per game on the ground last year. Despite that, he struggled against them to the tune of 242 total yards and 1TD in 3 games (he was rested week  17 vs. Indy with a playoff berth clinched). But expect that to improve in 09’. Bob Sanders is sure to be hurt by their week-5 matchup anyways…
- If he wasn’t stuck in a committee, Jones could flourish in the NFC West. St. Louis, Arizona, and San Francisco combined to give up an average of 124 yards rushing per game last year. Neither of those teams made any noticeable improvements to their run defense either.  
- Albert Haynesworth’s departure will make life easier for Slaton. The 6’6, 320 lbs behemoth will be replaced by a combination of Jovan Haye and Jason Jones, who weigh 285 lbs. and 275 lbs respectively. Needless to say, Tennessee is sure to be less dominant against the run this season. Tennessee’s defense isn’t one to be intimidated by this season.
Poor schedules – RBs
1.) Ryan Grant faces 6 top-5 defenses from 2008.  (Chicago: 5th – twice; Minnesota: 1st  - twice; Baltimore: 3rd; Pittsburgh: 2nd)
2.) Michael Turner faces 6 top-10 defenses from 2008.  (Miami: 10th; Chicago: 5th; Jets: 7th; Washington: 8th; Giants: 9th; Eagles: 4th)
3.) LT faces 6 top-10 defenses from 2008 (Baltimore: 3rd; Miami: 10th; Pittsburgh: 2nd; Giants: 9th; Eagles: 4th; Tennessee: 1st)
- Grant will have to earn his pay this year. Those 4 teams (Chicago, Minnesota, Baltimore and Pittsburgh) are sure to be the cream of the crop again this year vs. the run. Baltimore’s loss of Bart Scott and Pittsburgh’s loss of Larry Foote will hurt, but not too bad. They’re both still top-5 teams against the run. Minnesota and Chicago are elite run stoppers, with the Bears improving after adding underrated LB Pisa Tinoisamoa in free agency.  
- Not only will Turner have to prove he can handle back to back seasons with a heavy workload, but he’ll have to do it against stiff competition. Of the 6 top-10 defenses he’ll be facing, Philadelphia and Chicago are the only ones he faced last year. In his matchup vs. Philly, Turner carried the ball 17 times for just 58 yards. And against Chicago he was even worse, gaining a just 54 yards on 25 carries. Both of those units should be stout again this season.  
- L.T’s race against the Father Time won’t be easy in 2009. Despite playing against easy opponents within the division — all of which ranked 27th or worst against the run last year — L.T. will have to face the 4 toughest run Ds from 08’. The Dolphins and Giants are no pushovers either. The Giants addition of LB Michael Boley and DL Chris Canty should cement another top-10 finish for the G-men. Miami retained the core of their defense, and added run stuffing safety Gibril Wilson.
Favorable schedules – QBs
1.) Matt Hasselbeck faces just 3 top-10 pass defenses from 2008.  (Buccaneers: 4th; Colts: 6th; Cowboys: 5th)
2.) Kurt Warner faces just 3 top-10 pass defenses from 2008. (Colts: 6th; Giants: 8th; Titans: 9th)
3.) David Garrard faces just 4 top-10 defenses from 2008. (Titans: 9th - twice; Colts: 6th - twice)
- Hasselbeck finds himself in a nice situation in the NFC West. No team in that division finished higher than 19th (St. Louis) against the pass. The Cardinals did improve by inking cornerback Bryant McFadden in free agency, and for good reason. The Super Bowl runners up surrendered a shocking 36 passing TDs on the season, the most in the league by a margin of 9. For a comparison, the Colts gave up just 6 on the year. The Colts, as well as the Cowboys and Buccaneers, should repeat as some of the stingiest team’s against the pass.
- As with Hasselbeck, Warner will be playing against weak NFC West competition.  The only difference is Warner has taken advantage of it.  He averaged just over 300 yards per game against divisional opponents last year, and threw at least 1 TD pass in each. Expect his dominance to continue in 2009. The Colts, Giants and Titans all return their starting secondary’s, and should make for tough matchups. But Warner — in addition to Boldin and Fitzgerald — aren’t guys you’ll be benching anyway.
- David Garrard shouldn’t have too tough of a time navigating through the Jags schedule. Yes, Indy and Tennessee will make for tough matchups twice a year, but outside of them, their schedule appears quite favorable. Playing the aforementioned NFC West helps, as well as below average secondary’s in Kansas City and Cleveland. Garrard threw for 283 yards and 2 TDs against a Browns team that should struggle against the pass in 09’.      
Poor schedules – QBs
1.) Eli Manning plays 8 games against teams that were in the top-10 in pass defense last year. (Redskins: 7th – twice; Cowboys: 5th - twice; Buccaneers: 4th; Eagles: 3rd – twice; Raiders: 10th)
2.) Tony Romo plays 8 games against teams that were in the top-10 in pass defense last year. (Redskins: 7th – twice; Giants: 8th – twice; Eagles: 3rd – twice; Bucs: 4th; Raiders: 10th)
3.) Kyle Orton faces 9 teams that finished in the top-10 in pass defense last year. (Raiders: 10th - twice; Colts: 6th; Giants: 8th – twice; Cowboys: 5th – twice; Redskins: 7th; Eagles: 3rd; Ravens: 2nd; Steelers: 1st)
- Talk about brutal. Eli will not only be facing stiff divisional play (that he was inconsistent against in 08’) but he’ll have to take on emerging pass defenses in Oakland and Tampa Bay. Oakland features the league’s premier cover corner in Nnamdi Asomugha, and replaced in-the-box safety Gibril Wilson with 2009 2nd round pick Mike Mitchell, who brings to the table a reputation as a fearless hitter.   Tampa should be considered a tough matchup for QBs too.  Last year they gave up just 187 yards per game, and should repeat similar numbers in ‘09 thanks to the emergence of CB Aqib Talib. 
-  Where as the defenses in the NFC West are a haven for big fantasy numbers, the NFC East is just the opposite. But Romo didn’t seem fazed by the elite competition, averaging nearly 250 yards per divisional contest last year. Outside of the division, Romo faces the same teams as Manning (Buccaneers and Raiders) but is obviously a guy you’ll be starting regardless of matchup.  
- Welcome to Denver, Kyle Orton. The new Bronco will have to deal with all but 1 of the top-10 pass defenses from 2008. The Steelers and Ravens should pose the biggest challenges to Orton, despite a couple losses. Pittsburgh will be without ‘08 starter Bryant McFadden, but their pass rush will likely hide any weaknesses in the back end. They should be among the league’s elite against the pass once again.  Baltimore lost longtime secondary staple Chris McAlister, but his play has been in decline the last two seasons. Their strong pass rush should carry them too towards another top-5 finish.   Orton’s tough matchups might make him hard to even spot start effectively, especially if Brandon Marshall is shipped out of town.         
 
Don’t get me wrong, talented RBs like LT, Turner, and Grant, and talented QBs like Romo, Manning and — to a lesser degree — Orton have the ability to record prime fantasy numbers vs. top defenses. It goes along the lines of “any given Sunday.” But a tough schedule vs. an easy one might be the deciding factor for you on draft day. Just keep an eye on the schedule. It doesn’t take much effort, and it could end up saving you a headache or two during the fantasy season.

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