by John Miller

Matt Ryan is on pace for about 3,500 yards, 16 TDs, 9 INTs, and most importantly, he’s got the Falcons in the hunt for the playoffs. He’s going to finish as one of the best rookie QBs ever.  Here’s Ryan’s stats compared to Peyton Manning’s and Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie years:

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Don Banks puts Drew Brees over Kurt Warner as the leader in the MVP race.



John

Bill Ordine of the Baltimore Sun has a nice breakdown of the MVP candidates so far… Bill did write this before Drew Brees blew up on Monday night and got the Saints in the wild-card hunt. It’s a wide open race so I’m going to wait another week before I chime in.

John

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by John Miller

It’s never too early to think NFL Draft. Just for fun, I’ve posted Mel Kiper’s latest Big Board. The column on the far right is mine, just my guesstimated draft order as of now. It’s not a mock. Simply a quick peek at the top-25 prospects aligned with the first 25 draft spots. Everything will be different after the February combine.

I know, I know… where is WR Michael Crabtree?   I can’t figure out why Kiper would leave him off, except maybe because Crabtree is a sophomore. However, Crabtree is a red-shirt sophomore. He is eligible to enter the 2009 draft because he’s 3 years removed from high school (like Michael Vick was). Maybe Kiper thinks Crabtree will stay at Texas Tech one more year (?). Anyway, I’ve read that he’s a lock top-10 pick if he comes out.

* Detroit got this extra 1st rounder from Dallas (and a 3^rd & 6^th) for Roy Williams.

+ Philadelphia also has Carolina’s 1^st rounder, which could be around #28 or #29.

  And… did you know?

–New England has an extra 2nd rounder from SD, who moved up for Jacob Hester.

–Miami has an extra 2^nd rounder from Washington from the Jason Taylor trade.

–NY Giants have an extra 2^nd rounder from New Orleans for Jeremy Shockey.

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by John Miller

Brian Westbrook has swelling in that same knee he’s dealt with for years. He’s still not recovered from his two cracked ribs from 6 weeks ago. And he has a nagging high ankle sprain too.  The Daily News reports Westbrook looked “alarmingly hobbled” at the team facility on Monday.

Westbrook has missed two games already, and in his other 8 games he’s averaged 3.2 yards per carry or less on 5 different occasions. This year he averages a 20-yard play every 78 touches. Last year he averaged a 20-yard play every 23 touches. The man is a wreck. He’s out of our top-20 for this week, maybe off the weekly rankings entirely by Friday. Some of you might need to dust off Correll Buckhalter and use him, though the Ravens are a terrible matchup (at home).

The injuries are piling up after 1,400 total touches (including playoffs) since 2005.  Is he suddenly nearing the end?  Not likely. He’s a warrior who will come out swinging next year after a restful offseason. But if I’m picking at the end of the 1st round next summer and Westbrook is there, I’m passing. He just collected $13 million in guaranteed money on that new extension and he’ll be 30 at kickoff 2009.

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by John Miller

More in-depth numbers pulled off STATS Inc.

QB Completion % in Red Zone

RB Yards Per Rush on Carries #11-20

RB/WR/TE Yards Per Catch

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Here are the Standings after Week 10 in the Draft Sharks Invitational Leagues:

* Overall Total Points champion gets a free entry & seat at the 2009 World Championship of Fantasy Football. If one of the 4 Draft Sharks staff teams wins, we’re giving our seat to DS customer Clayton Ward, who is stationed in Iraq fighting for our freedom.  Clayton, things are looking good for your WCOFF ticket!

by John Miller

Peter King made a comment about Kurt Warner possibly being a Hall-Of-Fame candidate if he keeps on chugging in Arizona. That got me thinking, because I had always kind of put Warner in that group of AHOFers, the Almost Hall Of Famers.  Terrell Davis and Randall Cunningham are AHOFers. But now Warner is changing his destiny with piles of stats to go along with a Super Bowl ring and tons of awards.

Let’s break Warner down:

(And think about all those games where he left early with concussion, thumb, & elbow injuries)

Note: Of the 16 other QBs to win Super Bowl MVP, 11 are in the Hall of Fame or will be: Bart Starr, Len Dawson, Joe Namath, Roger Staubach, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Steve Young, John Elway, Troy Aikman, Tom Brady, & Peyton Manning.  4 Super Bowl MVPs didn’t make it in the Hall: Jim Plunkett, Phil Simms, Doug Williams and Mark Rypien. But those 4 guys’ overall passing stats don’t touch Warner’s.

Health willing he’s going to move up to 29,000 career passing yards at the end of the season. He’ll land at around #33 all-time near Rich Gannon at 29,253 yards.  Same with the TD passes. Warner is at 171 and could be up at 188, just over Sammy Baugh (187) at #36 all-time by season’s end. Warner is only 37, so let’s assume he gets a 3-year extension and keeps Matt Leinart seated. At a conservative estimate of just three more, say, 3,400-yard/22-TD seasons in 2009, 2010, and 2011 he would land at these retirement numbers:

39,200 passing yards – 12^th all-time right behind HOFers Johnny Unitas & Joe Montana

254 TD passes – tied for 12^th all-time with HOFer Dan Fouts, ahead of HOFer Jim Kelly

Warner has collected jewelry and trophies. Those are the two quickest ways to get onto the HOF ballot. Plus he dresses it all up with these superlative stats. If he plays 3 more solid years after this one, right up to age 40, he’s in the Hall. And you know what, the Cardinals are 6-3 and playoff-bound in 2008. He could pad his postseason resume and not even have to play 3 more years to get in… maybe just 2 more years if he squeezes in a 3^rd NFC Championship appearance (or Super Bowl?).  

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by John Miller

Those of you who’ve been around Draft Sharks a while know that my favorite all-time player is… Jeff George.

Yes, the same bratty Jeff George who got kicked off the Falcons for calling coach June Jones’ mother a @%*&.

I fell in love with George when he was the #1 NFL pick in 1990 to the Colts. Of course, the fans quickly fell out of love with him when he flicked off the crowd in his 5^th career start.  But man, this guy can hum that football.  George was traded to Atlanta and became a fantasy juggernaut. In 1994 he threw for 3,734 yards and 23 TDs. In 1995 he threw for 4,143 yards and 24 TDs.  That ’95 run-n-shoot offense was the first in history to record a 4000-yard passer (George), 1000-yard rusher (Craig Heyward), and three 1000-yard receivers (Terance Mathis, Bert Emanuel, Eric Metcalf). But of course, there was the blowup with June Jones.

Off to Oakland, where he continued his torrid fantasy pace in 1997 with 3,917 yards, 29 TDs and only 9 INTs. Funny story… when George first came to Oakland, a reporter in the locker room asked Tim Brown if he thought George could get the ball downfield. Brown smiled, didn’t say a word, glanced over at Jeff sitting quietly a few lockers down — and simply lifted his #81 practice jersey to reveal a bare chest: It was dotted with bruises from his QB’s laser-missiles… Next up was a stay in Minnesota, where George replaced an ineffective Randall Cunningham in week 6.  Bombs away.  George led the Vikings to 8 wins in 10 weeks, saved Dennis Green’s job, and got them in the playoffs. In only 12 full games – including playoff matchups vs. Dallas & St. Louis – he threw for 3,451 yards, 30 TDs and only 13 INTs.  Drew Brees-type numbers. 

His attitude problems reportedly resurfaced again in Washington with Marty Schottenheimer, though insiders say Marty used George as a scapegoat for a 0-5 start. George was later signed for a brief stint as the #3 QB in Seattle, then Lovie Smith in Chicago.  Holmgren and Smith both remarked that George was a true professional.

George is the only NFL QB ever to throw for 23+ TDs with 3 different teams. If you asked 10 NFL personnel guys who’ve been in the business a while – Who has the best arm in NFL history? – I bet 3 of them would say Jeff George.

Anyway, why am I thinking about him today?  Because apparently he wants to be Tony Romo’s backup and says he could win a couple games if/when Romo was out again. Listen to Jeff George today on Michael Irvin’s radio show.

Sign him Jerry!

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Here are the Standings after Week 9 in the Draft Sharks Invitational Leagues:

* Overall Total Points champion gets a free entry & seat at the 2009 World Championship of Fantasy Football. If one of the 4 Draft Sharks staff teams wins, we’re giving our seat to DS customer Clayton Ward, who is stationed in Iraq fighting for our freedom. Drop Clayton a line at cward00@yahoo.com and talk some football, or just wish him well!

* We’ve had questions about why no one is adding and dropping players. It’s a ‘DraftMasters’ style league. You stock up with a hefty 22-man roster and have no transactions in-season. Your lineup & score is automatically tallied “best-ball” where your highest scorers count. It’s all about the draft in this format… it’s DraftMasters!