by John Culligan
More injuries, more surprise performances, more disappointments - what’s a fantasy owner to do? Some of you may already know it but I’m a Fantasy Vision contributor, and one of the staff Trade Evaluators. That means that I’m actually watching the games and hearing your concerns.
Wow! Some of you have major concerns. Never in my FF life have I seen so many people thinking of dumping their first round picks. Curse that Tom Brady injury! Brady’s knee and assorted other injuries and under-performances have led to a spate of owners willing to turn their rosters upside down, and it’s only after week 2 of a very long season. Stop it already. Sure you have to look for the little things that can lead to season-long trends, but enough already with the questions of trading studs that have yet to get untracked. The reason they’re studs is because they usually finish the year with great stats every year.
Let’s talk some specifics, like Marques Colston and his injury. Dumping him for half his value will come back to haunt you in your fantasy playoff run. Don’t do it!
Congrats to those who have waited out Steve Smith’s suspension with minimal damage to your fantasy point total. He should definitely give you a strong boost the rest of the way.
Don’t expect Brandon Marshalll to have 18 receptions each week; he’ll be the Broncos # 1 all year demanding and getting the ball, but Eddie Royal is the real deal and will cut into his targets significantly.
Despite his bonehead play at the 1-yard line, look for DeSean Jackson to become Donovan McNabb’s favorite even when Reggie Brown is healthy and Kevin Curtis returns. Despite his size, he’s more of a natural receiver than his playmates.
The trending that lead up to the draft had the top 4 QBs going early in most drafts. None of them are in the top four now and you might feel a tad foolish for taking them in the first 3 rounds. Current top 4 include Cutler, Rivers, Rodgers and McNabb – all of whom were drafted as early as the 5th round and as late as the 11th. Imagine if that trend continues and you’ll be able to brag about how you got the best of the value drafting with better RBs and WRs earlier.
Heck, even Jon Kitna is ranked among the top 10 after just 2 games. Don’t expect Kitna to hold that ranking if he keeps throwing picks; the Lions may very well decide to go with youth if they feel the season is over for them. And they won’t care that he’s your fantasy starter. Start to look for a replacement for your team if this concerns you, like it does me.
The anticipated rebound for Marc Bulger is not happening so far; how much did Steven Jackson’s contract holdout affect the team chemistry or are the Rams just that bad? I say give it a couple of more games before you strike the tents on that comeback prediction.
Both Kurt Warner and Eli Manning have started off strong. I’ve even heard the calls that Eli has matured and is ready to enter the elite category. I’m not buying it until I see Eli go through an entire season without a prolonged slump. He seems to always start fast, then go through a horrific 4 or 5 game slide. As a fantasy owner, you can’t afford that – let him prove his consistency.
As for Kurt, I’ve got a fantasy man-crush on his talent, situation and WRs. I worry that my boy, getting on with age and limited mobility, will fall victim to some season-ending injury. As much as I hated seeing him come out of the game against the Dolphins because of a large lead, I want to say thank you to the coaching staff for protecting my old man and me, from my own greed.
Eric Mangini is catching a lot of flack for not letting Brett be Brett. Stop already; give Favre a chance to learn the playbook. It may take awhile to absorb all that information. Give him until the week 5 bye and watch him explode against the Bengals, Raiders and Chiefs.
Another one to watch is Jake Delhomme; he’s played against solid D’s in the Chargers and the Bears, with the tough Vikings D on the horizon. The good news is Steve Smith is in the lineup. Better news is the games after Minnesota are against the defensively challenged Falcons and Chiefs. He’s got some tough games on his schedule, but you can count on him to have some terrific shootouts as the season goes on.
While there’s no disputing the talent of youngsters that make it to the NFL level, some of them need development. JaMarcus Russell and Tarvaris Jackson are 2 cases in point; (last week I wrote about Vince Young) the aforementioned looked awful. They threw flutter balls, sailers and rockets at all the wrong times. You can’t zing it when you should toss it and vice-versa. Maybe we haven’t seen it yet, but you can expect the same from Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco as the season progresses. A retired NFL QB doesn’t always make the best QB coach; these teams need to invest in coaches that can drill these future stars with footwork, ball handling, passing touch, pocket awareness and drills in decision making.
I just love the way the rookie RBs are taking the league by storm. Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Kevin Smith are all ranked in the top 20 for RBs. If I recall correctly, McFadden probably went the earliest, around the third round, and with Fargas’ injury, you should see him ready to do an ’08 version of Adrian Peterson.
A few other surprises come in the form of unexpected stats from underrated veterans like Willie Parker, Julius Jones, Sammy Morris and Michael Pittman. Did I just write Michael Pittman? Well he’s 20th on the list, but I don’t expect he’ll stay there.
Moving in reverse order, I think Ryan Torain wasn’t placed on IR because Mike Shanahan has big plans for him. When healthy, the untested rookie has the tools to fill all the roles that Denver’s current RBBC take on. If I’m right, Michael, Selvin Young and Andre Hall will all be relegated to backup status later in the season.
Sammy Morris should continue to lead the Patriots running attack and with Brady’s injury, he’ll be called on to do more. Laurence Maroney just isn’t cutting it in Bill Belichick’s mind. Whether it’s an experience or fragility issue, the Coach seems to want Morris to carry the load. That same thought has Kevin Faulk being more of a factor in the Pats’ offense. In PPR leagues, Faulk is worth 10 to 15 points per game, an excellent depth player for your bench.
How many injuries can the Seahawks have? When will the spigot be turned off? Until it stops, Julius Jones, a chronic underachiever, will have the opportunities to prove himself to be a value pick and will prove that taking him in the 7th round or later was truly inspired genius on your part. You lucky dog!
Was it fear that the broken leg would slow him down or that Rashard Mendenhall was breathing down his neck; I don’t know for sure, but “Fast Willie” didn’t get enough love and respect for a guy that is currently 3rd in FF points. The only negative here is that in PPR leagues he’s seen only 1 target and ZERO receptions. Healthy, he’ll finish the season with 1,500 yards and 10 TDs.
Call it wishful thinking, but I still believe that Steven Jackson will knockoff the rust, learn Al Saunders’ playbook and become a fantasy factor as the season progresses. I would have preferred that he have the fire in his belly for a new contract, but that’s been settled. Jax is in a much better situation than he was in the injury plagued ’07 season and hopefully he’s competitive enough to want to be the best. For all of you that drafted him high – hang in there.
Ouch! As I get to the part of this tirade that deals with our disappointments, starting with LaDainian Tomlinson. LT is off to his usual slow start, but you have to wonder if he’s going to break out of it because of that darn toe. His age and number of career carries gave me doubts at the beginning of the season, but we’ll never know if those factors are the reason for what may be a decline in his fantasy career or if it will be the “TOE” that keeps him from putting up the stats we expect from a consensus # 1 pick.
Others, who are giving us less than expected are Joseph Addai, Jamal Lewis, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Grant, and Larry Johnson – all of whom were taken early enough that their production to date has left us squeamish. Come on boys, let’s get back on track and help us win championships.
That concludes my crazy thoughts for now. As always your feedback is important; if you think I’m nuts – say so. If you think I’m a genius – I thank you. I’m probably somewhere in the middle and I truly love this game we play.
Good luck until next time.