by Jared Smola

At the risk of being crucified, I’m going to go ahead and recommend buying low on Thomas Jones. This may be a pointless argument since it seems like 90% of Draft Sharks subscribers drafted Jones (and aren’t too happy about it right now), but hear me out before you flip your lid.

There’s a reason we named this guy our 2008 Breakout Player. In that particular article, John Miller wrote: “Jones is one of the hardest working and top conditioned backs in the league. ‘Every time I go to the weight room, he’s in there,’ said [Jets HC Eric] Mangini. He simply runs with passion.  Don’t forget Jones has flirted with fantasy success before, finishing with a #12 ranking in 2005 and hanging around the top-20 two other times.”

Jones is no slouch. He’s a talented, hard-working RB. And he also takes pride in the work he does on the football field, so you know he’s not happy about his poor start to the 2008 season.

But there are a couple of reasons for his slow start, namely the tough schedule and the re-tooled offensive line. Let’s take a look at his schedule first.

Below are the Jets’ opponents through the first 4 weeks along with their rank against the run and rank in fantasy points allowed to RBs:

By no means has it been an insanely brutal schedule for Thomas Jones, but he hasn’t faced any cupcakes. Miami and Arizona have been surprisingly tough on opposing RBs so far, and we know New England and San Diego are better than those rankings

Now let’s take a look at Jones’ upcoming games after the week 5 bye:

It gets a bit tougher again after that with games against New England and Tennessee, but Jones also faces Denver and the 49ers later in the year. Those next 5 games alone should convince you to trade for Jones or hang on to him.

But wait… there’s more!

Keep in mind that New York’s offensive line has 2 new starters—free-agent pickups LG Alan Faneca and RT Damien Woody. These are 2 big, beefy studs that have already made this line much better. But it’s going to take another couple of games before this unit really gels.

Let’s look at some split stats from Marshawn Lynch last year, a RB that was running behind another offensive line with 2 new players at the same 2 positions no less (LG Derrick Dockery and RT Langston Walker). Here are Lynch’s yards per carry by month last year:

Of course this improvement is due, in part, to Lynch progression as a RB at the pro level, but part of it can also be attributed to the offensive line coming together. I can see the same thing happening with Thomas Jones this year. He’s averaging just 3.8 yards per carry right now, but I bet that number spikes to well above 4 yards per carry in the 2^nd half of the season when his offensive line really comes together.

Judging by some of the comments I’ve heard from Jones-owners around these parts, the man can be had for Curtis Martin and a bag of balls right now. So have some guts and take a chance on a guy who could still be a top-15 RB from here on out. And if Jones is already on your roster, have some patience… he’s going to come around.

And if he doesn’t, you can always blame Draft Sharks for all of your problems.

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by John Miller

Yeesh, Willis McGahee’s ribs are banged up. Last week it was a lacerated eye. It’s a rib-eye roast! Seriously, here’s HC John Harbaugh on McGahee’s injury from Monday night: “He’s got a rib issue. We think he’s going to be OK. We’ll just have to see how the rib goes this week, but other than that we have nothing serious.”

Ok, so it’s a rib (singular). Cracked?  Cartilage torn off it?  Boy, he was visibly agonized when the trainers were helping him to the locker room. McGahee’s been down this road before too. Remember in 2006 – as a Buffalo Bill – when he cracked a couple ribs vs. Green Bay and left in the 1^st quarter?  I do because I was starting him that day. He missed 2 full games after that.

Here’s the thing: Baltimore was forced to use their bye in week 2 because of Hurricane Ike. McGahee gets no rest week from here on out.  He’ll likely gut it out (contrary to popular opinion he’s a competitor) but it won’t be easy. And look who’s coming to town on Sunday — the Tennessee Titans, who inflict pain as a hobby.

I’d bet on Le’Ron McClain to get a lot of carries over the next few weeks. He has 215 yards in their 3 games (remember, they already had a bye) which puts him on pace for over 1,000 yards. I have to admit, Le’Ron seeks too much Le’Contact for my taste. You just get the feeling that Ray Rice will figure into this offense one way or the other.

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by John Miller

I thought this was interesting, from the Times-Picayune today: 

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by Jared Smola

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers left today’s game in the 3rd quarter with a right shoulder injury. He returned for a series in the 4th quarter, threw an interception, and then was yanked again. Rodgers looked fine after the game and stayed on the field to shake hands with some Tampa Bay players.

We’ve heard mixed messages about the severity of his injury, though. HC Mike McCarthy said the initial diagnosis was nothing more than a bruised shoulder. But beat writer Tom Pelissero from the Green Bay Press-Gazette reports that “at various points in his postgame press conference, Rodgers said he thought the shoulder might be separated or dislocated, but wasn’t sure.”

In his post-game press conference, McCarthy was asked whether or not Rodgers will be able to play next week against Atlanta. “I have no idea. It’s too early to tell,” McCarthy said. “He was able to go back in and play the one series, so I think tomorrow morning like a lot of cases will have a lot to do. Pat McKenzie (the team trainer) has not had a chance to put him through a thorough examination.”

We should know more by tomorrow after Rodgers undergoes further testing. But this is a big deal. It’s a big deal for owners of Aaron Rodgers, but it’s just as big of a deal for owners of Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and any other Packer. Green Bay’s back-up QBs right now are Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm. Flynn filled in for Rodgers today and promptly went 2-5 for 6 yards.

If Rodgers is out, even Greg Jennings will be reduced to a shaky fantasy starter. And the Packers will struggle to win a game. That’s how bad their QB depth is.

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by John U. Miller IV

Man, I’ve been in this business a long time and I’ve never seen such an invasion of rookie tailbacks.  Heck, I’m starting 2 in my local league… and not even blinking. They are e-v-e-r-y-w-h-e-r-e.  Let’s break down the best of the 2008 class so far:

Tier 1:

“The Silent Workhorse” – Bears RB Matt Forte: As we’ve mentioned before he’s on pace for 459 touches. Lovie Smith wasn’t kidding 3 weeks ago when he said they’d “get off the bus running” with the ball in Forte’s hands. The best part? Forte has had 16 passes thrown his way in 3 games – 3^rd most of any RB. That means he’s completely enveloped in OC Ron Turner’s playbook.

“Light Blue Jesus” – Titans RB Chris Johnson: Yep, that’s what they’re calling him in Nashville. He’s 7^th in total yards from scrimmage with 327 despite sharing the ball. He caught a 7-yard TD in the opener, and got tripped up at the 2-yard line on another screen last week. Our boy’s gonna snap off a 150-yard game with 2 TDs any week now – and you don’t want him on your bench when he does it.

Tier 2:

“The Plowhorse” – Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart: His bullish attitude and tree-thick legs make him very hard to tackle. He’s averaging barely 10 carries per game but already has 3 TDs. DeAngelo Williams is playing well enough to warrant a 50/50 split, but if they really wanna punish defenders it should be 65/35 Stewart.

“Herschel Part II” – Raiders RB Darren McFadden: He tore up the brutal SEC then busted 164 yards in his 2^nd pro game – with a jammed toe on the last 7 or 8 of his 21 carries!  McFadden’s in a lot of pain so the week 5 bye is perfect timing.  Try to trade for him now, with the bye lurking and all the toe talk.  Someone might sell him at a reasonable price.

Tier 3:

“Stevie Wonder” – Texans RB Steve Slaton: He scraped out 116 yards and a TD in his 1^st pro start – at Tennessee – and locked up the starting job. I howled when Houston passed on him in the mid-3rd round, but they got another 3^rd rounder (from Baltimore) and took Slaton. He fits the one-cut-and-go system.

“Sizzle” – Ravens RB Ray Rice: That was his nickname at Rutgers. Rice was one heckuva workhorse in college, with 715 carries for 3,806 yards and 44 TDs the last two years. Keep an eye on Rice because Willis McGahee gets nicked and LeRon McClain probably can’t sustain his pulverizing fullback style.

“Delicious” – Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall: That’s what Mike Tomlin calls his 1^st round rookie.  Mendenhall’s not the sharpest tool in the shed, though. Yesterday he texted friend and MNF opponent Ray Rice, saying he was gonna run all over the Ravens. Rice quickly showed his teammates Bart Scott & Terrell Suggs. Uh oh.

Tier 4:

“The Understudy” – Cardinals RB Tim Hightower: He’s learning all the tricks from Edgerrin James, a 7-time 1,000-yard rusher.  James, who could be the 7^th all-time leading rusher by year’s end, knows about picking your battles, body lean, and managing injuries. I tempted to put Hightower in Tier 2 because the second he becomes a 20-carry guy he’ll be cash-money.

“Texas Tornado” – Cowboys RB Felix Jones:  He’s only touched the football 28 times (18 runs, 2 catches, 8 kickoffs) and has scored 3 TDs.  Right now OC Jason Garrett seems content to load Marion Barber down with 25 touches per game – but we all know that won’t last.  Get Felix in there for the ultimate Thunder & Lightning combo.

“Lion Heart” – Lions RB Kevin Smith: The coaches planned to give him all he could handle, but maybe those 450 carries his senior year at UCF left him a little dead-legged.  Smith’s long run is 14 yards so far. It seems Rudi Johnson has a little left in the tank – so they’re backing Smith off a bit. Smart move. His whole career is ahead of him. 

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by John Miller

Ex-Titans GM Floyd Reese said he’d be interested in the vacant Lions GM job. He said the Detroit franchise is one of the “real uncut gems” in the league.  Uh, yeah.

Reese helped direct the Oilers-slash-Titans to a ton of wins, plus a Super Bowl (loss). From 1999-2003 no team won more games than Tennessee’s 56. He drafted Steve McNair, Eddie George, Jevon Kearse, and Keith Bulluck.  Reese also had the final say on drafting Pacman Jones and Vince Young.  Now the Young pick looks especially bad.  Heck, Cutler played for Vanderbilt, some 12 min. from Reese’s Nashville home. They knew Jay was a bazooka-armed prototype with no fear… and passed on him.  Reese was also responsible for the Titans’ brutal 3-year stay in salary cap jail from 2003-2005. But if he worked for a deep-pocket owner like William Clay Ford they could go “cash-over-cap” like the Redskins and start luring big free agents.  Reese also probably sees Detroit’s got dibs on QB Tim Tebow in the draft.  

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Here are the Standings after Week 3 in the Draft Sharks Invitational Leagues:

 (Overall Total Points champion gets a free entry in the 2009 WCOFF)

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by John Miller

Eagles RB Brian Westbrook was on the radio talking about his ankle Monday night. High ankle sprain. Have you noticed Andy Reid doesn’t mind his players blabbing about injury details?  When Reggie Brown hurt his hamstring a few weeks ago he admitted he was out for a while.  Bill Belichick, Andy Reid ain’t.   Anyway, you gotta figure Westbrook will miss a couple games.  But think about this… if he can’t go @ Chicago (week 4) or vs. Washington (week 5), Reid might go ahead and sit him @ San Francisco (week 6) because of the week 7 bye.  In this scenario Westbrook is unavailable to fantasy GMs for 5 weeks.

Who’s the handcuff?  It’s not a classic handcuff situation – no Chester Taylor, no Darren Sproles.  Correll Buckhalter will likely get the majority of carries, but how many is that?  Reid will go back to 65/35 pass/run.  Lorenzo Booker will play a lot too, but not if he whiffs on blitz pickups like he did vs. the Steelers.

More from Westbrook himself: “I’m going to do everything it takes. It’s painful. It’s going to be painful. You have ligaments and tendons in there that may have been sprained.”

Note: Eagles radio personality Howard Eskin said two people in the organization told him Westbrook’s swelling isn’t real bad and he’ll try to go Sunday. We’ll see. Eskin is a major fanboy and is always glass half-full.   

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by Jared Smola

For dynasty leaguers, Saturdays in Autumn are almost as important as Sundays. The future stars on the NFL are on exhibit across the college football scene.

The best college RB in all the land was on display on prime time T.V. this week. His name is Knowshon Moreno. Those of you that have been following Moreno since last year know what this kid is all about. But against Arizona State on Saturday night, Moreno put all his skills on display for the world to see—his power, his speed, his vision, and his incredible athletic ability (did you see him jump 13 feet in the air over the pylon for that TD!?!).

Moreno is having a huge year so far. Through 4 games he’s compiled 455 rushing yards, 96 receiving yards, and 9 TDs. More impressive than that though is the fact that he’s doing it behind a mediocre offensive line that starts 2 freshman, 2 sophomores, and 1 junior.

I see Moreno as a hybrid between Marshawn Lynch and Reggie Bush. Moreno is virtually the same size (5’11/207 lbs) that Lynch was in college and runs with similar tenacity. But he also has speed and athleticism that rival Reggie Bush. Moreno is a true home-run threat that is strong enough to run it between the tackles.

Moreno is only a sophomore, but he’s a near-lock to declare for the NFL next year. And mark my words: Moreno will be the 1^st RB off the board in the 2009 draft and will be a 2^nd round fantasy pick by late August. He’s that good.

Check out some more Knowshon Moreno highlights.

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by Jared Smola

In honor of WR DeSean Jackson’s brilliant play last Monday (by the way, check out what DeSean did in a high school all-star game), here are my top 5 NFL bonehead plays:

5. Plaxico Burress- In his rookie season, Burress made a key 3rd down catch in a playoff game against Jacksonville. Burress got up and spiked the ball with authority. The only problem was that the play wasn’t over. Burress hadn’t been touched by a Jaguars defender. Jacksonville recovered the fumble and Burress was reemed by HC Bill Cowher.

4. John Kasay- In a play that goes largely untalked about, Kasay botched a kick-off with just over 1 minute left in Super Bowl XXXVIII. The ball sailed out of bounds, giving the Patriots possession at the 40-yard line. We all know how that ended, but you have to wonder: would Brady have gotten his team within FG range if the drive had started at the 20 instead of the 40?

3. Gus Frerotte- We’ve seen some ridiculous TD celebrations, but nothing tops Gus Frerotte’s. After scoring a rush TD, Frerotte was so excited that he thought it prudent to slam his head into a wall behind the end zone. He missed the rest of the game with a concussion.

2. Leon Lett- Most people would call this the unquestioned #1 NFL blunder of all time, but I gotta give Bills WR Don Beebe some love. Let’s set the scene first: the Cowboys were leading the Bills 52-17 in Super Bowl XXVII when Lett recovered a fumble and started show-boating about 5 yards before he got to the end zone. Beebe came out of nowhere to knock the ball of of Lett’s hand and prevent the score. How many NFL players nowadays would be hustling that hard when they are down by 35? Plus, Lett’s bone-head move had no affect on the game’s outcome.

1. Bill Gramatica- Those crazy kickers! After nailing a 42-yard FG, Gramatica leaped into the air in celebration, landed awkwardly, and tore his ACL. Gramatica missed the rest of the year. What makes this blunder even worse is that the FG that Gramatica made put the Cardinals up 3-0 in the 1st quarter of a regular season game!

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