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by Mark Moyer
A few weeks ago I was discussing fantasy football, what a shock, when I stated that I would draft Wes Welker before Plaxico Burress every time and without hesitation. Some guy overheard my statement and chimed in with, “What kind of a moron are you? What idiot would draft Welker before Plaxico?” OK, I might be paraphrasing a little bit, but he certainly was adamant that Plaxico was better than Welker.
He argued that Brady will not throw 50 TDs again this year and I countered with the fact that Plexiglass exceeded 50 yards only 4 times in his last 14 games, counting the playoffs, and had only 5 TDs during that time frame. He stated that Plaxico was injured all year and played through it well enough to put up good numbers. I mentioned that Plexiglass is already nicked up this year and thanked him for helping my case by acknowledging that he was injured all last year, too. He mistakenly said that Welker is too small to be a red-zone target. I shot back with Welker is only 5’9 but he still had more red-zone targets (32 to 21) than Plexiglass and one more red-zone TD (8 to 7). I really dislike Plexiglass and neither of us was backing down. Then it finally hit me and I asked him, “I’m talking about liking Welker better in a PPR (point-per-reception) league, are you?” He responded with, “Point-per-reception leagues are for wimps.”
Since I play in almost exclusively PPR leagues, I have a tendency to always think and write in those terms. That is something that I have to pay attention to when I am drafting. Make sure you know your league’s scoring system before you draft. These “wimpy” PPR leagues can be tricky. I’m going to touch on a few types of PPRs and the difference the points per reception can make.
1 PPR for RB, WR, and TE
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In non-PPR leagues, the TEs were almost all the same after the Top-6 last year. The difference between TE #7 and TE #15 was 24 points for the whole year or about 1.5 points-per-game (ppg). The difference between TE #13 and TE #28 was about 2.0 ppg. In a non-PPR league, you may decide not to carry a backup TE. The difference between TE #13, who may or may not be available on the waiver wire, and TE #28, who probably is available on the waiver wire, is probably small enough that it may not be worth giving up a roster spot. In a PPR league, the difference between TE #7 and TE #15 was 45 points or about twice as much as in non-PPR leagues. The difference between TE #13 and TE #28 was about 3.0 ppg.
The biggest difference in drafting TEs is found in PPR leagues that allow the TE to be used as a flex. Some leagues require 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and a flex in the starting line-up. The flex can be a RB or WR or TE. In these leagues you will find that at some point in the draft, your projected points for the available TEs and your projected points for the available WRs are about the same. This would be a good time to draft a TE, even if you already have a TE. Drafting a TE in this situation gives you a TE that can be used in the flex position, just like the WR, and also gives you a backup for your starting TE and saves you a roster spot. Based on past experience, this situation occurs more frequently in PPR leagues than it does in non-PPR leagues.
In leagues that start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and a flex, there is a big difference in which players are most frequently used in the flex position. Below is a chart showing how each of the #12, #24, and #36 RBs, WRs, and TEs scored last year in both non-PPR leagues and PPR leagues.
Non-PPR League
RB #12 – 169 WR #12 – 158 TE #12 – 71
RB #24 – 131 WR #24 – 123 TE #24 – 42
RB #36 - 97 WR #36 – 100 TE #36 – 32
PPR League
RB #12 – 211 WR #12 – 244 TE #12 – 126
RB #24 – 166 WR #24 – 197 TE #24 – 88
RB #36 – 128 WR #36 – 161 TE #36 – 58
In a non-PPR league, RBs would dominate the flex position because RB #25 would score close to 131 points and WR #37 would score close to 100 points.
In a PPR league, either a RB or WR would be used as a flex because RB #25 would score close to 167 and WR #37 would score close to 161 points.
PPR leagues help alleviate the RB-hoarding that tends to happen in non-PPR leagues. It allows for a variety or drafting strategies, rather than the RB-RB-RB start to the draft that is often seen in non-PPR drafts.
1 PPR for RB and WR, 1.5 PPR for TE
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To help generate even more drafting strategies, some PPR leagues reward the TEs with 1.5 points per reception. With 1.5 PPR, TE #12 would have scored 152 points and TE #13 would become a close candidate for the flex along with RB #25 and WR #37.
1 PPR for RB and WR, 1.5 PPR for TE Leagues
RB #12 – 211 WR #12 – 244 TE #12 – 152
RB #24 – 166 WR #24 – 197 TE #24 – 106
RB #36 – 128 WR #36 – 161 TE #36 – 70
Drafting a second TE early becomes a good strategy because the TEs become good flex candidates and good backups. For example, pretend you have already drafted your starting TE, filled out your starting lineup of position players, and maybe even a backup or two. When you get ready to draft your WR #4, who could be used as a flex, make sure you check to see what TEs are still available. You may find that you have projected about the same number of points for the TEs that are left as for the WRs you’re eyeing.
Drafting the TE instead of the WR will give you a good backup for the TE that you picked early — in addition to giving you a good player for the flex option. During the course of the season there are more WRs that out perform their pre-season projections then there are TEs. Therefore, your chances of adding a good WR to your roster during the season are better than your chances of adding a good TE. Grab the good TE during the draft while you have the chance.
0.5 PPR for RB, 1 PPR for WR and TE
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Another way PPR leagues can produce more drafting strategies is to give the RBs only half a point per reception while giving the WRs and TEs a full point per reception.
0.5 PPR for RBs, 1 PPR for WR and TE Leagues
RB #12 – 189 WR #12 – 244 TE #12 – 126
RB #24 – 154 WR #24 – 197 TE #24 – 88
RB #36 – 116 WR #36 – 161 TE #36 – 58
In these leagues, even more WRs are used in the flex position because WR #37 would score close to 161 points while RB #25 would score close to 154 points. In addition, WR #24 scored more points than RB #12, so there are many more WRs drafted in the first two rounds than there are in a non-PPR league. This allows for different drafting strategies right from the beginning of the draft.
Now back to our regularly schedule program, The Life and Times of Burress and Welker.
Last year in PPR leagues, Welker outscored Burress 270 to 237. In non-PPR leagues, Burress outscored Welker 173 to 158. Welker was more than 2 PPG better in PPR leagues and Burress was about 1 PPG better in non-PPR leagues. That is a swing of 3 PPG when going from a non-PPR league to a PPR league. Look at the weekly breakdown of Burress vs. Welker in both Non-PPR and PPR leagues:
| Non-PPR | Burress | Welker |
| Week 1 | 34 | 12 |
| Week 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Week 3 | 14 | 6 |
| Week 4 | 8 | 4 |
| Week 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Week 6 | 17 | 24 |
| Week 7 | 4 | 25 |
| Week 8 | 1 | 14 |
| Week 9 | bye | 9 |
| Week 10 | 2 | bye |
| Week 11 | 4 | 7 |
| Week 12 | 15 | 14 |
| Week 13 | 3 | 1 |
| Week 14 | 19 | 13 |
| Week 15 | 3 | 3 |
| Week 16 | 0 | 4 |
| Week 17 | 20 | 12 |
| 173 | 158 |
Burress had more big games (34, 20, 17, 19, 20) than Welker (24, 25), but he also had more duds (4, 1, 2, 4, 3, 3, 0) than Welker (4, 1, 1, 3, 4). Non-PPR leagues lead to more boom or bust games because of their dependence on touchdowns for providing scoring. In PPR leagues both WRs were steady but Welker was much more so.
| PPR | Burress | Welker |
| Week 1 | 40 | 18 |
| Week 2 | 11 | 17 |
| Week 3 | 19 | 12 |
| Week 4 | 12 | 7 |
| Week 5 | 23 | 5 |
| Week 6 | 21 | 35 |
| Week 7 | 9 | 34 |
| Week 8 | 3 | 23 |
| Week 9 | bye | 14 |
| Week 10 | 6 | bye |
| Week 11 | 8 | 15 |
| Week 12 | 22 | 27 |
| Week 13 | 6 | 4 |
| Week 14 | 26 | 22 |
| Week 15 | 6 | 5 |
| Week 16 | 1 | 9 |
| Week 17 | 24 | 23 |
| 237 | 270 |
They had the same number of big games (40, 23, 21, 22, 26, 24) for Burress and (35, 34, 23, 27, 22, 23) for Welker, but Burress had more duds (3, 6, 6, 6, 1) to (5, 4, 5). Personally, I like consistency in my head-to-head leagues. Therefore, I will draft Welker before Burress every time and without hesitation.
The poster boy for RBs in PPR leagues is Reggie Bush. With 73 receptions in just 12 games, he averaged 6 receptions per game. That is the equivalent of scoring a TD every game. In a non-PPR league, Bush had 131 points which was good enough to be RB #24. In a PPR league, he had 214 points and was RB #11 despite missing 4 games. On a flat points-per-game basis, Bush was the 6th highest scoring RB. What a difference PPR can make!
PPR leagues also allow 3rd down RBs, who routinely catch a few balls a game, to contribute, too. This can make it beneficial to carry your starting RB’s teammate, the resident 3rd-down specialist, so that an injury to your starting RB does not end your season. Jerious
Jamal Lewis really took off last year when someone reminded CLE that Lewis was in fact an eligible receiver and finally started throwing him the ball. Through his first 6 games Lewis caught just 4 total balls and was averaging just 10 ppg. Over his last 9 games, Lewis caught 26 passes and averaged 21 ppg. Those catches really helped him out. As a side benefit, receiving 5 points for the 5 passes that your starting RB caught, helps take a little bit of the sting out of your RB being taken out of the game with the ball on the 1-yard line, so Joe Vulture can have his day in the sun.
If you have not played in a PPR league before, jump in, the water is fine. Just make sure you adjust your projections, cheatsheets, and drafting strategies –and draft Wes Welker before Plaxico Burress. We wimps would love to have you join us.
Good luck!
Editor’s note: Mark Moyer was the 2005 Champion of the 264-team $25,000 Fantasy VIP National Championships and his second team also finished 5th overall. Mark also has numerous Championships in live NFFC events, including the Main Event, Draft Champion, and Ultimate Leagues. Most impressive are his WCOFF accomplishments:
Hey Mark,
Great reading. Big PPR guy myself. I posted a thread over on the DS forums, I would LOVE your input.
http://www.draftsharks.com/subscribers/forum/viewtopic.php?t=23274
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