by John Miller

With the news that Kevin Curtis (hernia) is gone we have to slide down Donovan McNabb a little bit. But don’t overreact – McNabb is still in a pass-happy offense and they will keep firing away. He’s still ranked pretty high at DS. Will the Eagles have to lean on Brian Westbrook more than planned? Probably. His knees are a big concern, as the right one bothered him in 2006 and the left one swelled up last year — but he is now slated for 350 total touches again. We nudged B.W. up the MVP Board. Also don’t forget Lorenzo Booker, whose role might evolve into a part-time slot guy or wingback. They traded for Booker because they want to use him.

Take Curtis off your board. Reggie Brown’s value could rise but he’s got leg injuries so we’ll monitor him closely. DeSean Jackson is going to play both slot and flanker now, while Hank Baskett could play a lot of split end in 3-WR sets. Greg Lewis and Jason Avant?  Nah, we’ve been hearing about their potential for years.

L.J. Smith might benefit a little, though I hope he isn’t asked to block more.

Go back to the website: http://www.draftsharks.com/

by John Miller

This is Week 3 of the preseason and you really want to see all starters playing a series or two. If they don’t, it’s for one of two reasons:

1. He’s a high-dollar, franchise cornerstone like LaDainian Tomlinson, Tom Brady or Terrell Owens. No worries, we have a good idea of who these guys are, so no worries.

2. He has a moderate to serious injury, or an ongoing rehab process, and it merits closer investigation and/or fantasy caution.

That said, here’s some Blog Bites on key players’ injuries:

** Chargers TE Antonio Gates (toe) said he “wouldn’t imagine” being on PUP when the regular season starts.  Many reports indicate he’s running around pretty well now.

** Texans WR Andre Johnson (groin) returned to practice. He’s fine but you have to watch him closely if he plays Friday night at Dallas.

** Ravens RB Willis McGahee (knee scope) is not practicing yet. He’s one week into what was called a 2-4 week rehab. His status for the opener is questionable, very questionable. Meanwhile SI’s Don Banks just said the Ravens will use RB Ray Rice “early and often.”

** Packers RB Ryan Grant (hamstring) says he’s fine and would play if it were the regular season. Check your email inbox for more on Grant today.

** Colts QB Peyton Manning (knee) was spotted with a brace at a charity event.

** Titans QB Vince Young revealed he still has a “small hole” in his quadriceps (?) after last year’s injury. We’re not sure what that means.  He did have a 35-yard run two weeks ago vs. the Rams.

** Bills LT Jason Peters is digging a trench for his holdout. Buffalo claims they are fine without him.  It’s officially ugly now.  It’s true that the Bills are deeper up front than in years’ past – but c’mon, Peters is like Hercules out there.

** Patriots QB Tom Brady told WEEI on Sunday that his (alleged) ankle injury is on the “same side of the body, and same leg, but not the same injury” as the one he had last January. Whatever.  I don’t believe a single word that comes out of any Patriots’s mouth.

Go back to the website: Draftsharks.com

by Mark Moyer

A few weeks ago I was discussing fantasy football, what a shock, when I stated that I would draft Wes Welker before Plaxico Burress every time and without hesitation.  Some guy overheard my statement and chimed in with, “What kind of a moron are you?  What idiot would draft Welker before Plaxico?” OK, I might be paraphrasing a little bit, but he certainly was adamant that Plaxico was better than Welker.

He argued that Brady will not throw 50 TDs again this year and I countered with the fact that Plexiglass exceeded 50 yards only 4 times in his last 14 games, counting the playoffs, and had only 5 TDs during that time frame. He stated that Plaxico was injured all year and played through it well enough to put up good numbers.  I mentioned that Plexiglass is already nicked up this year and thanked him for helping my case by acknowledging that he was injured all last year, too. He mistakenly said that Welker is too small to be a red-zone target.  I shot back with Welker is only 5’9 but he still had more red-zone targets (32 to 21) than Plexiglass and one more red-zone TD (8 to 7).  I really dislike Plexiglass and neither of us was backing down. Then it finally hit me and I asked him, “I’m talking about liking Welker better in a PPR (point-per-reception) league, are you?” He responded with, “Point-per-reception leagues are for wimps.”

Since I play in almost exclusively PPR leagues, I have a tendency to always think and write in those terms.  That is something that I have to pay attention to when I am drafting.  Make sure you know your league’s scoring system before you draft.  These “wimpy” PPR leagues can be tricky.  I’m going to touch on a few types of PPRs and the difference the points per reception can make.

1 PPR for RB, WR, and TE

=================

In non-PPR leagues, the TEs were almost all the same after the Top-6 last year.  The difference between TE #7 and TE #15 was 24 points for the whole year or about 1.5 points-per-game (ppg).  The difference between TE #13 and TE #28 was about 2.0 ppg. In a non-PPR league, you may decide not to carry a backup TE.  The difference between TE #13, who may or may not be available on the waiver wire, and TE #28, who probably is available on the waiver wire, is probably small enough that it may not be worth giving up a roster spot. In a PPR league, the difference between TE #7 and TE #15 was 45 points or about twice as much as in non-PPR leagues.  The difference between TE #13 and TE #28 was about 3.0 ppg.

The biggest difference in drafting TEs is found in PPR leagues that allow the TE to be used as a flex.  Some leagues require 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and a flex in the starting line-up.  The flex can be a RB or WR or TE.  In these leagues you will find that at some point in the draft, your projected points for the available TEs and your projected points for the available WRs are about the same. This would be a good time to draft a TE, even if you already have a TE.  Drafting a TE in this situation gives you a TE that can be used in the flex position, just like the WR, and also gives you a backup for your starting TE and saves you a roster spot. Based on past experience, this situation occurs more frequently in PPR leagues than it does in non-PPR leagues.

In leagues that start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and a flex, there is a big difference in which players are most frequently used in the flex position.  Below is a chart showing how each of the #12, #24, and #36 RBs, WRs, and TEs scored last year in both non-PPR leagues and PPR leagues.

RB #12 – 169              WR #12 – 158             TE #12 – 71

RB #24 – 131              WR #24 – 123             TE #24 – 42

RB #36 -   97               WR #36 – 100             TE #36 – 32

RB #12 – 211              WR #12 – 244             TE #12 – 126

RB #24 – 166              WR #24 – 197             TE #24 – 88

RB #36 – 128               WR #36 – 161             TE #36 – 58

In a non-PPR league, RBs would dominate the flex position because RB #25 would score close to 131 points and WR #37 would score close to 100 points.

In a PPR league, either a RB or WR would be used as a flex because RB #25 would score close to 167 and WR #37 would score close to 161 points.

PPR leagues help alleviate the RB-hoarding that tends to happen in non-PPR leagues.  It allows for a variety or drafting strategies, rather than the RB-RB-RB start to the draft that is often seen in non-PPR drafts.

1 PPR for RB and WR, 1.5 PPR for TE

========================

To help generate even more drafting strategies, some PPR leagues reward the TEs with 1.5 points per reception.  With 1.5 PPR, TE #12 would have scored 152 points and TE #13 would become a close candidate for the flex along with RB #25 and WR #37.

RB #12 – 211              WR #12 – 244             TE #12 – 152

RB #24 – 166              WR #24 – 197             TE #24 – 106

RB #36 – 128               WR #36 – 161             TE #36 – 70

Drafting a second TE early becomes a good strategy because the TEs become good flex candidates and good backups.  For example, pretend you have already drafted your starting TE, filled out your starting lineup of position players, and maybe even a backup or two.  When you get ready to draft your WR #4, who could be used as a flex, make sure you check to see what TEs are still available.  You may find that you have projected about the same number of points for the TEs that are left as for the WRs you’re eyeing.

Drafting the TE instead of the WR will give you a good backup for the TE that you picked early — in addition to giving you a good player for the flex option. During the course of the season there are more WRs that out perform their pre-season projections then there are TEs.  Therefore, your chances of adding a good WR to your roster during the season are better than your chances of adding a good TE.  Grab the good TE during the draft while you have the chance.

0.5 PPR for RB, 1 PPR for WR and TE

========================

Another way PPR leagues can produce more drafting strategies is to give the RBs only half a point per reception while giving the WRs and TEs a full point per reception. 

RB #12 – 189              WR #12 – 244             TE #12 – 126

RB #24 – 154              WR #24 – 197             TE #24 – 88

RB #36 – 116               WR #36 – 161             TE #36 – 58

In these leagues, even more WRs are used in the flex position because WR #37 would score close to 161 points while RB #25 would score close to 154 points. In addition, WR #24 scored more points than RB #12, so there are many more WRs drafted in the first two rounds than there are in a non-PPR league.  This allows for different drafting strategies right from the beginning of the draft.

Now back to our regularly schedule program, The Life and Times of Burress and Welker.

Last year in PPR leagues, Welker outscored Burress 270 to 237.  In non-PPR leagues, Burress outscored Welker 173 to 158. Welker was more than 2 PPG better in PPR leagues and Burress was about 1 PPG better in non-PPR leagues.  That is a swing of 3 PPG when going from a non-PPR league to a PPR league. Look at the weekly breakdown of Burress vs. Welker in both Non-PPR and PPR leagues:

Burress had more big games (34, 20, 17, 19, 20) than Welker (24, 25), but he also had more duds (4, 1, 2, 4, 3, 3, 0) than Welker (4, 1, 1, 3, 4).  Non-PPR leagues lead to more boom or bust games because of their dependence on touchdowns for providing scoring. In PPR leagues both WRs were steady but Welker was much more so.

They had the same number of big games (40, 23, 21, 22, 26, 24) for Burress and (35, 34, 23, 27, 22, 23) for Welker, but Burress had more duds (3, 6, 6, 6, 1) to (5, 4, 5). Personally, I like consistency in my head-to-head leagues.  Therefore, I will draft Welker before Burress every time and without hesitation. 

The poster boy for RBs in PPR leagues is Reggie Bush.  With 73 receptions in just 12 games, he averaged 6 receptions per game.  That is the equivalent of scoring a TD every game. In a non-PPR league, Bush had 131 points which was good enough to be RB #24.  In a PPR league, he had 214 points and was RB #11 despite missing 4 games.  On a flat points-per-game basis, Bush was the 6^th highest scoring RB. What a difference PPR can make!

PPR leagues also allow 3^rd down RBs, who routinely catch a few balls a game, to contribute, too.  This can make it beneficial to carry your starting RB’s teammate, the resident 3^rd-down specialist, so that an injury to your starting RB does not end your season.  Jerious Norwood averaged over 8 ppg last season in a PPR league while only carrying the ball over 10 times once all season.  No frequent-carrier miles for him!

Jamal Lewis really took off last year when someone reminded CLE that Lewis was in fact an eligible receiver and finally started throwing him the ball.  Through his first 6 games Lewis caught just 4 total balls and was averaging just 10 ppg.  Over his last 9 games, Lewis caught 26 passes and averaged 21 ppg.  Those catches really helped him out. As a side benefit, receiving 5 points for the 5 passes that your starting RB caught, helps take a little bit of the sting out of your RB being taken out of the game with the ball on the 1-yard line, so Joe Vulture can have his day in the sun.

If you have not played in a PPR league before, jump in, the water is fine.  Just make sure you adjust your projections, cheatsheets, and drafting strategies –and draft Wes Welker before Plaxico Burress.  We wimps would love to have you join us.

Good luck!

Editor’s note: Mark Moyer was the 2005 Champion of the 264-team $25,000 Fantasy VIP National Championships and his second team also finished 5th overall. Mark also has numerous Championships in live NFFC events, including the Main Event, Draft Champion, and Ultimate Leagues. Most impressive are his WCOFF accomplishments: Five 1st-Place and three 2nd-Place finishes in live WCOFF events, including the Main Event, Auction, and Hall of Fame Leagues. He is the only person to ever win two Overall Championships in WCOFF live events. Lifetime winnings in the Fantasy VIPs, NFFC, and WCOFF total just under $108,000 lifetime. And yes, they’re all PPR leagues baby!

By John Miller

I’ve spent the last few days calling and emailing NFL reporters around the country, digging for info on key fantasy players and conflicts. Here you go:

1. From Kevin Acee at the San Diego Union Tribune:

Antonio Gates:  “He’ll start the season (on that sore foot). That, I know for almost certain. Feet are tricky. I don’t know how good he’ll be or that he’d continue playing if he is less than 100 percent. I believe he wants to be the old Antonio when he comes back, so he is healthy for the end of the season.”

(Note: We just lowered Gates’ projections despite Acee’s understandable homer optimism. Gates is no longer our #1 TE.  The question you have to ask yourself is, with this foot/toe problem, would you take Gates over Witten or Winslow?)

2. From Dan Bickley at the Arizona Republic:

Matt Leinart vs. Kurt Warner: “My gut feeling is that Leinart starts.  I think it’s a mistake, but I’ve been in China for two weeks and don’t know what’s been going on at practice… I’ll be on the story as soon as I get back.”

3. From Gene Collier at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

Rashard Mendenhall: “He looks good to me. Not as instinctive as I thought he might be, but very promising.”

4. From John McClain (our good friend) at the Houston Chronicle:

Texans RBs: “I wouldn’t touch any of them. Ahman Green is hurt. If he stays hurt in preseason, I think they’ll cut him. Chris Brown will flash and get hurt. They like Chris Taylor and Steve Slaton but won’t say it publicly. Slaton has good speed. Even though he’s a third down back now, I’d take him over the others.”

5. From Nick Cotsnika at the Detroit Free Press:

Tatum Bell vs. Kevin Smith: “Kevin Smith looks good so far. Let’s see what he can do in some games. I’d think he’ll be the starting back before long.”

6. From Vito Stellino at the Florida Times Union:

Jerry Porter’s leg: “The Jags say he’ll be ready (after hamstring surgery) for the regular season but it’s too hard to tell.”

7. From Brad Biggs at the Chicago Sun Times:

Matt Forte getting 300 carries: “That would be a lot of work for a rookie. I think the Bears would ideally like to have him in the 250-275 range with Kevin Jones getting some work as a complementary player. We’ll see how it shakes out though. Jones won’t play tonight and he needs to prove he deserves a roster spot.”

by Jared Smola

Call him LenWhale, call him Pudge, make fun of his big-boned frame all you want. But LenDale White is a good RB. He showed us that with a 1,108 yard season last year and he showed us that again tonight.

White rushed for 39 yards on 8 carries against the Raiders. And dare I say he actually looked fast in pulling away from LB Kirk Morrison on a 22-yard run in the 1st quarter.

The Chris Johnson bandwagon is speeding out of control and I, admittedly, am on board. But that doesn’t mean White can’t have a good season too. The Titans are going to run the ball. They’re going to run the ball a lot. And a lot of those carries are going to go to White, no matter how well the rookie plays.

I’m all over LenWhale in the 6th round.

by Jared Smola

Let’s do a blind comparison of the 2-year averages of 2 RBs– one who I think is over-rated and one who I think is a tad under-rated:

Player A is clearly the pick here, but by how wide of a margin? Their yardage totals are almost idential, despite player A’s big TD advantage.

So who are these 2 mystery men?

Player A is Joseph Addai

Player B is Edgerrin James

Don’t get me wrong. By no means am I urging you to even consider James over Addai. Addai is clearly the younger, better player on a better offense. But James is considered a 4th or 5th round pick, while Addai is a top-5 pick in virtually every fantasy draft.

I just don’t see the infatuation with Addai. The guy has split carries since his days at LSU. The Colts evidently don’t feel comfortable leaning on him this season. Why else would they have brought back Dominic Rhodes and drafted Mike Hart?

And I don’t know about you, but I like my 1st-round picks to be reliable. Addai has already suffered head, back, shoulder, neck, and leg injuries through his 2-year pro career. He’s only missed 1 game, but he’s constantly banged up and leaving for entire drives or quarters.

Picks 3-5 are tough spots to be in right now in fantasy drafts. Steven Jackson is holding out, Brian Westbrook is always one shot to the knee away from disaster, and Addai just isn’t the stud he’s made out to be.

by Jared Smola

Quick! Who led all rookies in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs last year? While most of you Sharks will probably get it after a few seconds of thought (and because of the fact that I just mentioned his name in the title), I’m sure the name Calvin Johnson immediately popped into some of your heads.

While Johnson was one of the most hyped WRs to come out of the draft in the last decade, it was Bowe that had the best rookie season.

On a piss-poor offense, the LSU product racked up 70 catches for 995 yards and 5 TDs. Let’s compare those numbers to the rookie seasons of some guys who have become fantasy studs over the past few years:

That’s some elite company right there. Company that I think Bowe will be a part of in a few years.

As for 2008, I see Bowe finishing safely inside the top-20 with a chance to crack the top-15. Sure, the Chiefs offense probably won’t be much better this year, but Dwayne Bowe sure will be. And the offense can’t get any worse (can it!?!).

One alarming note is the fact that since 1991, only 2 WRs (Marques Colston and Braylon Edwards) that led their class as rookies improved the following year. But I think Bowe is plenty good enough to build on his rookie numbers.

There’s no doubt that he’s the best WR on his team, and with TE Tony Gonzalez and RB Larry Johnson getting up there in age, Bowe might just be the best player on the offense. Plus, while HC Herm Edwards would love to pound the rock all day long, he’ll have to air it out a bit more when he finds his team down by 21 at halftime.

Bowe is currently the 22nd WR off the board in average drafts. That’s after guys like Marvin Harrison and Hines Ward.  I’d say Bowe’s parked right in the heart of value city.

I’d love to hear your comments.

Commissioner Roger Goodell
National Football League
280 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10017

August 12, 2008

Commissioner Goodell:

I’ve learned a lot this weekend while watching the Olympic Games.  And, hopefully, what I’ve learned could actually benefit the League. 

Let me begin by relating this experience… Back when I was younger, we used to root against all the Eastern Bloc communist countries.  We wanted their basketball players to foul out; their gymnasts to fall off the balance beam; and their divers to hit their heads and drown.  It was all a part of the Olympic spirit:  Rooting for America to crush every opponent – but just as important, rooting against the enemies of America.  We knew that if the Soviet athletes failed, they would be publicly humiliated and then shipped to Siberia.  If a Chinese gymnast slipped, she would be quietly caned in the locker room.  So it was that much sweeter when our folks won! 

Jesse Owens made Hitler look like an ass in 1936.  A bunch of college kids smoked the Soviet hockey team in 1980.  And now, the American men’s swim team shut up the Speedo-wearing French – while our basketball team crushed Red China.  As Americans, we should be gloating.  We should be pointing and laughing at the competition – like that great American icon, Homer Simpson (or Chad Johnson). 

We should especially rub it in when we beat the Chi-coms or even the Frogs.  Instead, I was reminded this weekend – by some fellow “Americans” – that the theme of this year’s Olympics is “One World. One Dream.”  Yeah, well my world begins at Giant Stadium in New Freakin’ Jersey, and ends with Monster Park in San Fran-Freakin’-Cisco.  And the only dream I’m about is the American Dream. 

Which brings me to the point of this letter… In the name of all that’s sacred in American sports, I urge you to stop scheduling NFL games in foreign cities.  I know you want the NFL to expand its popularity abroad.  But why – to what ends?  So that American football can be in Europe what European football (soccer) is in the U.S.?  The NFL will be the MSL of Rome and Madrid.  It will be as popular to the rest of the world as the WNBA is to the average white American male (quick, name me 2 WNBA players!).  You will ruin your brand.     

This week, the Steelers and Bills will play a preseason game in Toronto, Canada.  And the Bills face the Dolphins there on December 7… Yes, December 7^th – Pearl Harbor Day!  In Canada – the place where teams punt on 3^rd down, and the field is 300 yards long by 500 yards wide.  Sir, have you seen what they’ve done to our beloved game?  They’ve made a mockery of it.  You can even get points on a missed FG by scoring a “rouge.” Yes, “rouge” is French for “I missed the damn field goal, I wonder if I can still get any points out this debacle.” And you want to have an NFL Game there – eh?

The Chargers and Saints are getting shipped off to England to play a match on the pitch of Wembley Stadium on October 26.  “We’re proud to be chosen,” a delusional Chargers President Dean Spanos said this spring,  “This is another positive step in the effort to globalize our great sport…as well as a chance for the Chargers to expand our international fan base.”  Expand your international fan base?  From 33 members to 41?  Sure, some guy in Sheffield is going to want to know how the Chargers are doing – just like some dude in Norfolk, Virginia shows up to church every Sunday wearing his Manchester United jersey….  Have you gone mad, man?  Mr. Goodell, can I invite you to dinner with Gordon Ramsey (of “Hell’s Kitchen” fame) – and Mr. Ramsey can explain to you why fish-n-chips and American football don’t mix.    

By the end of the 2008 season, the NFL will have played in communist China, Mexico, London, Toe-kyo, Japan, Toronto, Canada (eh?) – and God knows where else in the years to come.  Please stop the insanity, Commissioner Goodell. 

Let’s face it, Mexico hates us.  Always has and always will.  They booed the American soccer team on American soil a few years ago.  What do you expect?  Mexico still isn’t over the fact that the Texans kicked Santa Anna’s ass 100-something years ago.  The Japanese… ever heard of the Bataan Death March?  We still haven’t gotten an apology out of them for that one.  Communist China… We should boycott them for their shoddy plastic toys alone.  Canada?… Go rent “Canadian Bacon.”  Tell me if you ever trust Canada again.  London, England… Yes, the home of hooliganism.  Let’s see if we can’t get them to come to NFL games.  Brilliant.            

Commissioner, if none of that convinces you, let me make one final plea to your sense of reason:  The League has been very tough on marijuana use.  Smoke a joint, and get suspended for a year or two.  That’s a sensible policy.  The League has been equally lax in disciplining wife beaters.  Backhand your kid’s mother, and the league looks away.  Now then – suppose the NFL has a game in Amsterdam – the legalized pot-head capital of the universe.  Now suppose that after the game, a player goes out and smokes a joint – and then has to backhand his wife because she ordered gouda cheese when her man asked for cheddar.  The Dutch cops show up, ignore the joint in the player’s hand – but they arrest him for domestic abuse!  How the hell is that going to look for the League?  How are you going to explain to the NFL Players Association that their members can’t slap around their women with impunity any more?        

Ya see, we American fans love the NFL.  Just the way it is.  Just where it is.  It’s bad enough we have to go groveling in front of the U.N any time we want to invade another country.  Now, we have to beg the rest of the world to like our national sport.  As if we care what they like. 

As a Steelers fan, and as an American male, I can rip on Cleveland Browns fans without mercy.  It is my birthright. And I don’t have to worry about whose feelings I’ve hurt.  We’re Americans.  We get it.  No other NFL fan is going to lecture me about “One World.  One Dream.”  They will root for my guys to drop a pass, and I will root for their guys to fumble.  We won’t be eating brie cheese and pontificating on good sportsmanship.  That’s just how we roll here in America.  And that’s why we don’t want it to be the INTERnational Football League.  Just the NATIONAL Football League.          
 
Regards,

Leonard Pappano
President

Draftsharks.com

PS  Rog — if you have any Super Bowl tickets you can hook me up with, shout at me at your earliest convenience.  Suite passes would be even sweeter.  If you can do the suite, I’ll do a free Draft Sharks subscription for you.  Lemme know, bro.   

PSS  Hey, if you know anyone else who wants a Draft Sharks subscription, just forward this letter to them and ask them to click on the order link at draftsharks.com.  They’ll get  access to all our player profiles, rankings, projections, feature articles, shark bite news bits – tons of great stuff to get them to their fantasy football Super Bowl… speaking of which, hey, don’t forget to get back to me on those Super Bowl passes.  I’ll make it worth your while.  Thanks, bro.  You da man.