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by Robb Woodworth, Draft Sharks Guest Writer
I conducted a study of our coveted top running backs. As I am sure the norm is in every league around the country, I play in a couple leagues that are RB-hungry. RBs fly off the draft board as if they come with a free plate of hot wings! I found the top-10 RBs drafted in each of the past 5 years (from www.mockdraftcentral.com). I then compared their ADP ranking that year to their Final Rank at their position.
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
ADP |
|
Final Fantasy RB rank |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1) |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
1.02 |
|
1st |
|
|
2) |
Steven Jackson |
STL |
2.05 |
|
14th |
|
|
3) |
Larry Johnson |
KC |
3.50 |
|
40th |
|
|
4) |
Frank Gore |
SF |
4.60 |
|
9th |
|
|
5) |
Shaun Alexander |
SEA |
5.14 |
|
35th |
|
|
6) |
Joseph Addai |
|
5.82 |
|
5th |
|
|
7) |
Brian Westbrook |
PHI |
7.37 |
|
2nd |
|
|
|
Willie Parker |
PIT |
8.24 |
|
16th |
|
|
9) |
Rudi Johnson |
CIN |
9.35 |
|
47th |
|
|
10) |
Reggie Bush |
NO |
11.00 |
|
24th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2006 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1) |
Larry Johnson |
KC |
1.30 |
|
2nd |
|
|
2) |
Shaun Alexander |
SEA |
2.06 |
|
28th |
|
|
3) |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
2.68 |
|
1st |
|
|
4) |
Tiki Barber |
NYG |
4.51 |
|
7th |
|
|
5) |
|
WAS |
6.17 |
|
36th |
|
|
6) |
Edgerrin James |
ARI |
7.20 |
|
20th |
|
|
7) |
Rudi Johnson |
CIN |
8.18 |
|
9th |
|
|
|
Ronnie Brown |
MIA |
8.37 |
|
25th |
|
|
9) |
Steven Jackson |
STL |
8.57 |
|
3rd |
|
|
10) |
Carnell Williams |
TB |
9.47 |
|
39th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1) |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
1.33 |
|
3rd |
|
|
2) |
Shaun Alexander |
SEA |
2.47 |
|
1st |
|
|
3) |
Priest Holmes |
KC |
3.12 |
|
32nd |
|
|
4) |
Willis McGahee |
BUF |
4.49 |
|
13th |
|
|
6) |
Edgerrin James |
|
5.96 |
|
5th |
|
|
7) |
Deuce McAllister |
NO |
7.06 |
|
54th |
|
|
9) |
Corey Dillon |
NE |
9.30 |
|
16th |
|
|
10) |
|
WAS |
10.6 |
|
6th |
|
|
11) |
Domanick Davis |
HOU |
11.4 |
|
17th |
|
|
13) |
Rudi Johnson |
CIN |
14.1 |
|
7th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1) |
Priest Holmes |
KC |
1.09 |
|
13th |
|
|
2) |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
2.18 |
|
3rd |
|
|
3) |
Ahman Green |
GB |
3.77 |
|
12th |
|
|
4) |
|
WAS |
4.44 |
|
11th |
|
|
5) |
Deuce McAllister |
NO |
5.41 |
|
17th |
|
|
6) |
Shaun Alexander |
SEA |
5.72 |
|
1st |
|
|
7) |
Jamal Lewis |
BAL |
7.46 |
|
25th |
|
|
|
Edgerrin James |
|
8.64 |
|
6th |
|
|
9) |
Fred Taylor |
JAX |
9.37 |
|
20th |
|
|
12) |
Stephen Davis |
MIN |
13.4 |
|
108th |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2003 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1) |
Ricky Williams |
MIA |
1.35 |
|
9th |
|
|
2) |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD |
1.91 |
|
2nd |
|
|
3) |
|
DEN |
2.83 |
|
5th |
|
|
4) |
Marshall Faulk |
STL |
3.22 |
|
16th |
|
|
5) |
Priest Holmes |
KC |
4.65 |
|
1st |
|
|
6) |
Deuce McAllister |
NO |
5.96 |
|
7th |
|
|
|
Shaun Alexander |
SEA |
7.76 |
|
6th |
|
|
11) |
Edgerrin James |
|
11.10 |
|
10th |
|
|
12) |
Ahman Green |
GB |
11.70 |
|
3rd |
|
|
13) |
Travis Henry |
BUF |
12.00 |
|
11th |
|
I found that over half the RBs drafted in the top-10 did not finish the year as a top-10 RB (26 out of 50). 14 of those 26 did not finish in the top-20. Even more exasperating, I found 9 out of 20 RBs just in the last two years that did not crack the top-20. I believe it illustrates an increasing trend towards RBBC in the NFL. And of course, a lot of injuries… which is probably the reason for this intrinsic shift in coaching philosophy. They want fresh legs. The godlike exception to the RB turnover has been LaDainian Tomlinson.
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