by Jared Smola
Jets at Bengals (Saturday, 4:30 pm ET)
These are the two worst teams in the playoffs. That being said, this game should be neck-and-neck. The Jets looked like bona fide Super Bowl contenders last week en route to a 37-0 spanking of the Bengals. They’re not that good. And Cincinnati isn’t that bad. Besides running a “vanilla” offense – WR Chad Ochocinco said they played it like a preseason game – the Bengals rested key starters on both sides of the ball. RB Cedric Benson, TE J.P. Foschi, DT Domata Peko, DE Robert Geathers, and FS Chris Crocker were all inactive for last Sunday night’s meeting. Benson and Peko’s returns, especially, should make Saturday’s rematch a completely different ballgame. Still, this isn’t a good matchup for the Bengals. The Jets – winners of 5 of their last 6 – enter with the league’s top-rated defense and running game. CB Darrelle Revis should be able to shut down WR Chad Ochocinco (again). And without any other weapons in the passing game, that leaves the Bengals offense to rely on RB Cedric Benson. The Jets offense is just as one-dimensional though. They’ve lost any faith they had in QB Mark Sanchez’s ability to go downfield. With a CB duo of Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, the Bengals will be able to stick 8 or even 9 guys in the box to stop RBs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. Wildcat man Brad Smith is the x-factor, but you know Bengals DC Mike Zimmer is staying up late at night devising a game plan to slow him down. This game will come down to turnovers. Sanchez’s 20 INTs this season were 2nd most in the NFL. He’ll toss a couple more in his first career playoff game, and that’ll be the difference in this low-scoring affair.
Prediction: Bengals 17, Jets 13
Eagles at Cowboys (Saturday, 8 pm ET)
In a matter of one week, the Eagles went from the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl to underdogs in the Wild Card Round. Such is life in the NFL – a “what have you done for me lately” league. Saturday night’s matchup between these NFC East foes is the most intriguing of the four 1st-round games. The winner of this one has the ability to run the table. The Cowboys won both of their previous meetings this season, out-scoring the Eagles 44-16, out-gaining them 832-525, and out-sacking them 7-6. That last stat is the Eagles’ biggest concern in this one: protecting QB Donovan McNabb. C Jamaal Jackson’s (knee) absence was clearly felt last Sunday, and the coaching staff will need to do a better job masking that weakness in the middle of the line. It’s been the Cowboys’ pressure on McNabb – not their coverage in the secondary – that has limited WR DeSean Jackson to just 5 catches for 76 yards in 2 meetings. D-Jax was open deep a few times last Sunday, but McNabb missed him because of defenders in his face. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys seem too balanced and too explosive to be stopped right now. QB Tony Romo is playing the best ball of his career, leading the ‘Boys to a 5-2 record to close out the season while throwing 12 TDs and just 3 INTs over that span. RBs Marion Barber and Felix Jones, WR Miles Austin, and TE Jason Witten comprise arguably the league’s most dangerous group of skill position players. They say it’s tough to beat a team 3 times in 1 season, but Dallas is good enough – and hot enough – to do it.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Eagles 24
Ravens at Patriots (Sunday, 1 pm ET)
We’re not used to the Patriots entering the postseason with so many question marks. Can QB Tom Brady hold up with 3 broken ribs and a fractured finger on his throwing hand? Can WR Julian Edelman do enough to make up for WR Wes Welker’s absence? Can the Patriots secondary stop anyone? Their matchup with the Ravens on Sunday is the only Wild Card game that isn’t a repeat of Week 17 action. But these two teams did meet earlier this season. Back in Week 4, New England defeated Baltimore inside Gillette Stadium by a score of 27-21. The Ravens defense did a nice job in that one, recording 3 sacks, 2 takeaways, and a TD. They’ll need to be just as good in this one. And that’ll be quite a bit easier with Welker out. Baltimore will bracket WR Randy Moss and force WRs Sam Aiken and Julian Edelman to beat them. But Edelman, especially, is capable of doing that. The Ravens secondary is short-handed after losing impressive rookie CB Lardarius Webb in Week 15. Since then, they’ve given up 259 passing yards to QB Ben Roethlisberger and 180 yards to QB Charlie Frye before the incompetent JaMarcus Russell entered for the 2nd stanza. Baltimore’s best bet in this one is to get after Brady – and maybe even knock him out of the game. The Ravens offensive game plan will be simple: run, run, run. The Patriots rank 13th in run defense but allow 4.4 yards per carry (20th in the NFL). The expected return of NT Vince Wilfork – who missed the season’s final 3 games – will help, but RBs Ray Rice and Willis McGahee should still find plenty of running room. New England’s defense is even more susceptible through the air, playing much worse than their 12th-ranked pass defense would indicate. Unfortunately, Ravens QB Joe Flacco is in the midst of a sophomore slump and probably won’t be able to take advantage. When it comes down to it, Baltimore’s defense is no longer good enough to win them games. And their offense isn’t yet good enough to do it. They make too many mental mistakes late in games, and the Patriots will capitalize.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 17
Packers at Cardinals (Sunday, 4:40 pm ET)
Outside of the Chargers, no team is hotter than the Packers. They’ve won 7 of their last 8, highlighted by impressive victories over the Cowboys and Ravens. Their only loss during that stretch was a last second heartbreaker at the hands of the Steelers. QB Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as any QB in the league right now. And no one has a more dangerous group of playmakers in the passing game. Green Bay’s WRs go 4 deep with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson. Plus, TE Jermichael Finley is developing into an elite option at the position. The Cardinals enter this game banged-up. WR Anquan Boldin suffered knee and ankle injuries last weekend and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie also left with a knee contusion. Arizona’s offense figures to be one-dimensional in this one. The Packers enter with the league’s top run defense. The Cardinals aren’t patient enough to stick with the ground game when it isn’t working. That could be a problem against a Packers team that leads the NFL in INTs. If Boldin can’t go, Defensive Player of the Year candidate Charles Woodson will be able to shadow WR Larry Fitzgerald. He won’t shut Fitz down, but he is capable of containing him. The Cards will need to score in bunches to keep up with the Packers on Sunday. Their 23rd-ranked pass defense figures to struggle with or without Rodgers-Cromartie. Getting pressure on Rodgers would help, but the Packers offensive line has been much better in the season’s 2nd half. And RB Ryan Grant is piping hot, averaging 5.9 yards per carry in his last 4 games. Are the Cardinals capable of hitting a groove again and reaching the Super Bowl? Sure. But don’t bank on it.
Prediction: Packers 34, Cardinals 23