by Jared Smola
Ask 10 fantasy footballers who the biggest bust of the ’09 season is. I bet at least 8 of them give you Matt Forte’s name. And they’d probably be right. Forte – a consensus top-5 pick, and a top-3 pick in most drafts – is currently the 17th-ranked RB in PPR leagues and 18th in standard-scoring leagues.
But his numbers aren’t all that different from last year. Except one thing: touchdowns. Through 8 games, Forte has racked up 700 total yards on 123 rushes and 30 receptions. That puts him on pace for 1,400 yards from scrimmage and 60 catches. In his big rookie year, he finished with 1,715 total yards and 63 catches. So in PPR leagues, he’s only 34 points off last year’s pace – a measly 2 fantasy points per game.
But then there are those things they call TDs, hitting pay dirt, the money shot. Forte only has 3 of those so far this season. He finished last year with 12. And that’s the difference between being the top RB – like Forte was last year – and being barely a top-20 RB – like Forte is this year.
So will Forte pick up his TD production in the 2nd half? He’s seen plenty of opportunities. Forte is currently 3rd in the NFL with 33 red zone rushes. But he’s scored on just 2 of those for a putrid 6% conversion rate. And both of those scores came against the lowly Browns. So unless something changes along the offensive line, or in Forte’s nose for the end zone, it’s difficult to project an uptick in Forte’s TD production.
Forte is coming off back-to-back 100-total yard efforts. Now seems like the perfect time to put him on the trade block. But if you do deal him, make sure the other side knows about his solid yardage production this year. And make sure you get a nice haul for your 1st-round pick.
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