I have to confess that I ‘snicker’ whenever someone takes a rookie QB in my redraft league. Here’s why: these young QBs come to the NFL draft, get selected (or don’t), get a cool hat and are put into one of the following situations:
A. Good to great QB is drafted to save the franchise. (Matt Ryan)
B. Good QB is drafted by a team that relies on its defense and run-heavy offense. (Joe Flacco)
C. QB was in a great system in college, goes wherever and rots on the bench for the extent of his contract. Is signed by the Argonauts 3 to 5 years later. (Let’s go with Cody Pickett. John David Booty looks primed to carry on the legacy.)
See a trend? None of these QBs — with the exception of a rare few who I will get to in a bit — are put in any position to succeed as a fantasy QB their rookie season. ESPN will tell you that Joe Flacco was one of the best quarterbacks in the league last year. I will tell you that my league doesn’t award points for biltzes read by a 23-year-old or for his pocket presence, so he was nothing more than a low tier backup. Matt Ryan was slightly better than Flacco from a fantasy point of view, but he wasn’t worthy of being a starter in 12 team leagues, finishing the 15th best fantasy QB. As far as Cody Pickett goes, well, he started that one time a few years ago. Remember?
So check this out. NFL.com lets me look at stats dating back to 1993. From 1993 until last year only 3 rookie QBs have been worthy of even starting regularly in 12-team leagues. Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. If you actually took one of these guys as your starting QB, I hope it was Manning because the other two just barely squeaked into the top-12.
Fast forward to the present day NFL. The roles are the same but the cast has changed a bit. Matt Stafford takes Matt Ryan’s role. Mark Sanchez fits into Flacco’s role and lets say undrafted rookie Chase Daniel fits into the Cody Pickett/John David Booty role. Don’t get me wrong, these QBs, minus Daniel, will probably be pretty damn good in a few years.
You’re going to be tempted this August. It’ll be late in your draft, you’ll be sitting in your buddy’s basement, the smell of Cooler Ranch Dorito’s stings your nostrils and you need a backup QB. You’ll be scanning your MVP board and you’ll see Stafford and Sanchez but I’m telling you, from one fantasy enthusiast to another, there will be safer options.