Thursday, July 02, 2009
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by Kevin English
It’s all too often as fantasy players we find ourselves making tough lineup decisions. Do I start player X -- one of my top picks -- against one of the top defenses in the league? Or do I bench him in favor of player Y, a less talented later round pick who’s going against one of the league’s weaker defenses? While those kinds of decisions are inevitable during a fantasy season, a pre-draft peak at your targeted player’s schedules will give you a better idea of how a guy might perform, and when. Below are a few nuggets about how I perceive certain players will stack up against certain defenses. Last year’s numbers are used to show how effective or ineffective a defense was vs. the run or pass. Yes, nobody returns the same starting 11 on defense from the year prior, and thus the rankings are sure to be different -- perhaps drastic in some cases. But examining some trends -- including taking a look at key additions and losses through free agency and the draft -- will give us a gauge on how tough of a matchup they could pose for some key fantasy players.
Note: Numbers in parentheses indicate the teams’ pass or run defense rank from 2008.
Favorable schedules - RBs
1.) Chris Johnson faces just 3 top-10 run defenses from 2008. (Dolphins: 10th; Steelers: 2nd; Jets: 7th)
2.) Julius Jones faces just 2 top-10 run defenses from 2008. (Bears: 5th; Minnesota: 1st)
3.) Steve Slaton faces 4 top-10 run defenses from 2008. (Jets: 7th; Titans: 6th – twice; Dolphins: 10th)
- Two of Johnson’s divisional opponents -- Indianapolis and Houston -- gave up over 122 yards per game on the ground last year. Despite that, he struggled against them to the tune of 242 total yards and 1TD in 3 games (he was rested week 17 vs. Indy with a playoff berth clinched). But expect that to improve in 09’. Bob Sanders is sure to be hurt by their week-5 matchup anyways…
- If he wasn’t stuck in a committee, Jones could flourish in the NFC West. St. Louis, Arizona, and San Francisco combined to give up an average of 124 yards rushing per game last year. Neither of those teams made any noticeable improvements to their run defense either.
- Albert Haynesworth’s departure will make life easier for Slaton. The 6’6, 320 lbs behemoth will be replaced by a combination of Jovan Haye and Jason Jones, who weigh 285 lbs. and 275 lbs respectively. Needless to say, Tennessee is sure to be less dominant against the run this season. Tennessee’s defense isn’t one to be intimidated by this season.
Poor schedules - RBs
1.) Ryan Grant faces 6 top-5 defenses from 2008. (Chicago: 5th – twice; Minnesota: 1st - twice; Baltimore: 3rd; Pittsburgh: 2nd)
2.) Michael Turner faces 6 top-10 defenses from 2008. (Miami: 10th; Chicago: 5th; Jets: 7th; Washington: 8th; Giants: 9th; Eagles: 4th)
3.) LT faces 6 top-10 defenses from 2008 (Baltimore: 3rd; Miami: 10th; Pittsburgh: 2nd; Giants: 9th; Eagles: 4th; Tennessee: 1st)
- Grant will have to earn his pay this year. Those 4 teams (Chicago, Minnesota, Baltimore and Pittsburgh) are sure to be the cream of the crop again this year vs. the run. Baltimore’s loss of Bart Scott and Pittsburgh’s loss of Larry Foote will hurt, but not too bad. They’re both still top-5 teams against the run. Minnesota and Chicago are elite run stoppers, with the Bears improving after adding underrated LB Pisa Tinoisamoa in free agency.
- Not only will Turner have to prove he can handle back to back seasons with a heavy workload, but he’ll have to do it against stiff competition. Of the 6 top-10 defenses he’ll be facing, Philadelphia and Chicago are the only ones he faced last year. In his matchup vs. Philly, Turner carried the ball 17 times for just 58 yards. And against Chicago he was even worse, gaining a just 54 yards on 25 carries. Both of those units should be stout again this season.
- L.T’s race against the Father Time won’t be easy in 2009. Despite playing against easy opponents within the division -- all of which ranked 27th or worst against the run last year -- L.T. will have to face the 4 toughest run Ds from 08’. The Dolphins and Giants are no pushovers either. The Giants addition of LB Michael Boley and DL Chris Canty should cement another top-10 finish for the G-men. Miami retained the core of their defense, and added run stuffing safety Gibril Wilson.
Favorable schedules - QBs
1.) Matt Hasselbeck faces just 3 top-10 pass defenses from 2008. (Buccaneers: 4th; Colts: 6th; Cowboys: 5th)
2.) Kurt Warner faces just 3 top-10 pass defenses from 2008. (Colts: 6th; Giants: 8th; Titans: 9th)
3.) David Garrard faces just 4 top-10 defenses from 2008. (Titans: 9th - twice; Colts: 6th - twice)
- Hasselbeck finds himself in a nice situation in the NFC West. No team in that division finished higher than 19th (St. Louis) against the pass. The Cardinals did improve by inking cornerback Bryant McFadden in free agency, and for good reason. The Super Bowl runners up surrendered a shocking 36 passing TDs on the season, the most in the league by a margin of 9. For a comparison, the Colts gave up just 6 on the year. The Colts, as well as the Cowboys and Buccaneers, should repeat as some of the stingiest team’s against the pass.
- As with Hasselbeck, Warner will be playing against weak NFC West competition. The only difference is Warner has taken advantage of it. He averaged just over 300 yards per game against divisional opponents last year, and threw at least 1 TD pass in each. Expect his dominance to continue in 2009. The Colts, Giants and Titans all return their starting secondary’s, and should make for tough matchups. But Warner -- in addition to Boldin and Fitzgerald -- aren’t guys you’ll be benching anyway.
- David Garrard shouldn’t have too tough of a time navigating through the Jags schedule. Yes, Indy and Tennessee will make for tough matchups twice a year, but outside of them, their schedule appears quite favorable. Playing the aforementioned NFC West helps, as well as below average secondary’s in Kansas City and Cleveland. Garrard threw for 283 yards and 2 TDs against a Browns team that should struggle against the pass in 09’.
Poor schedules - QBs
1.) Eli Manning plays 8 games against teams that were in the top-10 in pass defense last year. (Redskins: 7th – twice; Cowboys: 5th - twice; Buccaneers: 4th; Eagles: 3rd – twice; Raiders: 10th)
2.) Tony Romo plays 8 games against teams that were in the top-10 in pass defense last year. (Redskins: 7th – twice; Giants: 8th – twice; Eagles: 3rd – twice; Bucs: 4th; Raiders: 10th)
3.) Kyle Orton faces 9 teams that finished in the top-10 in pass defense last year. (Raiders: 10th - twice; Colts: 6th; Giants: 8th – twice; Cowboys: 5th – twice; Redskins: 7th; Eagles: 3rd; Ravens: 2nd; Steelers: 1st)
- Talk about brutal. Eli will not only be facing stiff divisional play (that he was inconsistent against in 08’) but he’ll have to take on emerging pass defenses in Oakland and Tampa Bay. Oakland features the league’s premier cover corner in Nnamdi Asomugha, and replaced in-the-box safety Gibril Wilson with 2009 2nd round pick Mike Mitchell, who brings to the table a reputation as a fearless hitter. Tampa should be considered a tough matchup for QBs too. Last year they gave up just 187 yards per game, and should repeat similar numbers in ‘09 thanks to the emergence of CB Aqib Talib.
- Where as the defenses in the NFC West are a haven for big fantasy numbers, the NFC East is just the opposite. But Romo didn’t seem fazed by the elite competition, averaging nearly 250 yards per divisional contest last year. Outside of the division, Romo faces the same teams as Manning (Buccaneers and Raiders) but is obviously a guy you’ll be starting regardless of matchup.
- Welcome to Denver, Kyle Orton. The new Bronco will have to deal with all but 1 of the top-10 pass defenses from 2008. The Steelers and Ravens should pose the biggest challenges to Orton, despite a couple losses. Pittsburgh will be without ‘08 starter Bryant McFadden, but their pass rush will likely hide any weaknesses in the back end. They should be among the league’s elite against the pass once again. Baltimore lost longtime secondary staple Chris McAlister, but his play has been in decline the last two seasons. Their strong pass rush should carry them too towards another top-5 finish. Orton’s tough matchups might make him hard to even spot start effectively, especially if Brandon Marshall is shipped out of town.
Don’t get me wrong, talented RBs like LT, Turner, and Grant, and talented QBs like Romo, Manning and — to a lesser degree — Orton have the ability to record prime fantasy numbers vs. top defenses. It goes along the lines of “any given Sunday.” But a tough schedule vs. an easy one might be the deciding factor for you on draft day. Just keep an eye on the schedule. It doesn’t take much effort, and it could end up saving you a headache or two during the fantasy season.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
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by Jared Smola
Not much has gone right for the Broncos since hiring Josh McDaniels as HC. Let's take a quick look at the timeline:
Dec. 30, 2008- Broncos fire HC Mike Shanahan
Jan. 11, 2009- Josh McDaniels hired as HC
Feb. 28, 2009- QB Jay Cutler's name comes up in trade talks for QB Matt Cassel
Mar. 2, 2009- Cutler refuses to meet with management after they tried to trade him
Mar. 16, 2009- Cutler requests a trade
Apr. 2, 2009- Cutler traded to the Bears
June 12, 2009- WR Brandon Marshall does not show up for mandatory minicamp
June 15, 2009- Marshall requests a trade
Coincidence? Maybe, but I don't think so. That's not to say that Cutler and Marshall are completely innocent, but things went straight down hill for Denver after hiring McDaniels.
But all I'm reading and hearing is sympathy for McDaniels -- that he's walking into a firestorm and how it's a shame that his 1st few months as a HC have gone so poorly.
How come no one's talking about McDaniels' role in all of this? Maybe Cutler and Marshall thought "I'm getting out of here" after learning about McDaniels' hiring. If I was a Broncos fan, I wouldn't be feeling bad for McDaniels. I'd be blaming him.
And it doesn't look like things will be getting better in The Mile High City anytime soon. In fact, based on how things were handled with Cutler, I wouldn't be surprised if Marshall is packing his bags before training camp starts.
www.draftsharks.com
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
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by Brett Barclay
I have to confess that I ‘snicker’ whenever someone takes a rookie QB in my redraft league. Here’s why: these young QBs come to the NFL draft, get selected (or don’t), get a cool hat and are put into one of the following situations:
A. Good to great QB is drafted to save the franchise. (Matt Ryan)
B. Good QB is drafted by a team that relies on its defense and run-heavy offense. (Joe Flacco)
C. QB was in a great system in college, goes wherever and rots on the bench for the extent of his contract. Is signed by the Argonauts 3 to 5 years later. (Let’s go with Cody Pickett. John David Booty looks primed to carry on the legacy.)
See a trend? None of these QBs — with the exception of a rare few who I will get to in a bit — are put in any position to succeed as a fantasy QB their rookie season. ESPN will tell you that Joe Flacco was one of the best quarterbacks in the league last year. I will tell you that my league doesn’t award points for biltzes read by a 23-year-old or for his pocket presence, so he was nothing more than a low tier backup. Matt Ryan was slightly better than Flacco from a fantasy point of view, but he wasn’t worthy of being a starter in 12 team leagues, finishing the 15th best fantasy QB. As far as Cody Pickett goes, well, he started that one time a few years ago. Remember?
So check this out. NFL.com lets me look at stats dating back to 1993. From 1993 until last year only 3 rookie QBs have been worthy of even starting regularly in 12-team leagues. Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. If you actually took one of these guys as your starting QB, I hope it was Manning because the other two just barely squeaked into the top-12.
Fast forward to the present day NFL. The roles are the same but the cast has changed a bit. Matt Stafford takes Matt Ryan’s role. Mark Sanchez fits into Flacco’s role and lets say undrafted rookie Chase Daniel fits into the Cody Pickett/John David Booty role. Don’t get me wrong, these QBs, minus Daniel, will probably be pretty damn good in a few years.
You’re going to be tempted this August. It’ll be late in your draft, you’ll be sitting in your buddy’s basement, the smell of Cooler Ranch Dorito’s stings your nostrils and you need a backup QB. You’ll be scanning your MVP board and you’ll see Stafford and Sanchez but I’m telling you, from one fantasy enthusiast to another, there will be safer options.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
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by Jared Smola
All the major fantasy football sites (yes, even DraftSharks) are working on 2009 NFL Draft Grades. But let's be honest, these guys haven't played a down of professional football yet. No one knows what they're talking about.
In my opinion, it takes 3 seasons before we can start to see what kind of NFL players these guys are going to be. That means we can now look back at the 2006 draft with some clarity. Here are the top-5 best and worst picks from the 2006 draft:
5 Best Picks
1. QB Jay Cutler (Denver), round 1, pick 11 - The only franchise QB in the draft class, even though Cutler won't be the franchise QB for the team that drafted him. QBs Vince Young and Matt Leinart were selected ahead of Cutler.
2. CB Cortland Finnegan (Tennessee), round 7, pick 215 - Pro Bowl CBs taken in the 7th round don't come around too often. 19 CBs were picked ahead of Finnegan.
3. WR Brandon Marshall (Denver), round 4, picks 119 - For all the headaches he causes, Marshall was a steal in round 4. WRs like Travis Wilson, Derek Hagan, and Cory Rodgers were all picked before Marshall.
4. LT Marcus McNeil (San Diego), round 2, pick 50 - A 2-time Pro Bowl selection, McNeil is already the Chargers' best offensive lineman. Nabbing an anchor to protect your QB's blind-side is huge.
5. C Nick Mangold (New York Jets), round 1, pick 29 - Mangold has started all 48 games for the Jets since being drafted and made it to the Pro Bowl last year. That won't be his last trip to Honolulu (or wherever they're playing the Pro Bowl nowadays).
5 Worst Picks
1. QB Vince Young (Tennessee), round 1, pick 3 - It's never a good thing when your 1st round pick is fighting for a back-up position. GMs are still scared to take QBs from spread offenses after this debacle.
2. TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco), round 1, pick 6 - He's a better athlete than football player. TEs should never be picked in the top-10 anyways.
3. RB Reggie Bush (New Orleans), round 1, pick 2 - He's shown flashes, but you have to be a perennial Pro Bowler to warrant the 2nd overall pick in the draft. With a career 3.7 yards per carry average, Bush is nowhere near that level.
4. S Donte Whitner (Buffalo), round 1, pick 8 - The most noise Whitner has made since entering the league was his screams when being tasered after resisting arrest a few weeks ago. Taking him at #8 was a reach back in '06 and it doesn't look any better today.
5. CB Tye Hill (St. Louis), round 1, pick 15 - Hill is one of the 5 worst starting CBs in the NFL. In fact, if the Rams secondary wasn't so putrid, he wouldn't be a starting CB. There are better cover guys in the DraftSharks office.
www.draftsharks.com
Friday, April 10, 2009
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by Jared Smola
Check out Cowboys TE Martellus Bennett's blog.
Pure entertainment!
(And to think someone at The Dallas Morning News is actually consciously making the decision to allow Bennett to continue to blog on their precious server space.)
www.draftsharks.com
Sunday, March 29, 2009
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by John Miller
My favorite college WR in 2008 was Hakeem Nicks. It probably helped that I watched the Meineke Car Care Bowl when Nicks caught 8 passes for 217 yards & 3 TDs. I also saw him earlier in the season when he torched Notre Dame for 9-141-1. NFL Network's Mike Mayock compared Nicks to Anquan Boldin & Hines Ward. Nice.
Nicks measured 6'1/212 at the Combine but he looks 6'2+ to me. His 4.54 at the Combine didn't scream "1st round!" to draft scouts but I have a feeling he'll go early in the 2nd round. Maybe the Rams at #35, Seahawks at #37 (if they didn't get Crabtree), or Dolphins at #44. In fact, Dolphins VP Bill Parcells accompanied HC Tony Sparano to North Carolina for Nicks' private workout this week. Parcells must have seen this highlight reel and got curious.
Nicks only scored a 11 on the Wonderlic and his workout habits have been questioned. However, if Parcells likes ya he'll get the most of outta ya -- forget what your issues are. Slow feet (Keyshawn Johnson), head case (Terry Glenn), doesn't matter.
I know this: If the Bears have a chance to take Nicks in the 2nd round at #49 and pass, Bears fans should riot.
www.draftsharks.com
Thursday, March 26, 2009
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by John Miller
For months now we've been hearing that Houston plans to add a RB to take some of the load off Steve Slaton. In free agency they went after Cedric Benson but he wanted too much money. HC Gary Kubiak says they'll have to add a RB in the draft. "Obviously, that’s important,” Kubiak said. “We went the Cedric Benson route in free agency, and it didn’t work out. It’s a little nerve-racking, but you can’t force something. At least we know we have a good young one in Slaton." I've never seen a rookie 1,200-yard back get disrespected so much; but it makes sense that the 200-lb Slaton should be spelled for 10-12 carries. The thing is, Slaton actually got stronger as the season went on. He averaged 4.5 per carry in the first 8 games, and 5.0 in the last 8.
The draft? Houston has the #46 spot in the 2nd round. I think the 5'11/228-lb RB Shonn Greene seems like a possibility. Greene ran a disappointing 4.72 at the Combine but bounced back with a 4.50 on Pro Day. Here's a Greene highlight reel at Iowa. He reminds me of Barry Foster. If you youngsters don't remember Foster, he was a thick-legged Steeler RB who blasted 1,690 yards in 1992.
If the Texans wait until the 4th-6th round I like 5'10/218-lb RB James Davis from Clemson. Here he is. But if they wait that long then Slaton's 2008 workload is safe.
www.draftsharks.com
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
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by John Miller
Wanna get really depressed about the economy? Click here. Manny Ramirez doesn't feel your pain.
www.draftsharks.com
Monday, March 09, 2009
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by Jared Smola
Raise your hand if you had Terrell Owens signing with the Bills in your office pool.
Anyone with a hand up can slowly lower it and stop lying to themselves. Buffalo's 90-year old owner Ralph Wilson has never been one to gamble on a high-priced, loose-cannon free-agent like Terrell Owens. Then again, the Bills signed Owens for fairly cheap. And maybe, just maybe, he'll behave in Buffalo (and maybe Wilson isn't suffering from dementia after all).
Owens will get $6.5 million from the Bills in 2009. To put that in perspective, Laveranues Coles just signed a deal with Cincinnati that will pay him $6.6 million in 2009 and a total of $27.5 million over the life of the 4-year deal. Yes, that's the same Laveranues Coles who has topped 1,000 yards just once in the past 5 seasons. T.O. has done that 4 times in the last 5 years (with the lone exception being 2005 when he missed 9 games). So from a strictly football perspective, the Bills got a great deal on a player who fills their need for a big WR to complement Lee Evans.
But Owens will tear QB Trent Edwards to shreds, ruin the locker room, and make HC Dick Jauron wish he'd been fired, right? Maybe, but maybe not. The Bills were very smart by signing Owens to a 1-year deal. As destructive as he has been in San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Dallas, he has always behaved in his 1st year with a new team. And at 35 years old, Owens will likely receive just 1 more contract after this one with the Bills. So for T.O., it's behave in Buffalo or bye-bye football career.
...Which brings us to Owens' football career. The fact that he signed with the Bills (a team that has gone 7-9 in 3 straight seasons with mediocre QB play in a cold, dreary city with uninspiring nightlife) is a sure sign that the NFL has had enough of his antics. You'd think T.O. could have at least caught on with the Vikings or maybe the Titans--2 teams with Super Bowl aspirations. Signing with the Bills is like settling for your high school softball team's clean-up hitter as your prom date after the captain of the cheerleading squad turned you down. That's no fun.
www.draftsharks.com
Saturday, February 21, 2009
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by John Miller
NFL.com's Adam Schefter reports WR Michael Crabtree has a stress fracture in his foot and will require surgery. A crushing blow to Crabtree's draft stock because he's expected to be sidelined for 10 weeks. That means no Combine workouts and possibly no Pro Day. His shot at being drafted in the top-10, much less the top-20, is hobbling out the door. Crabtree's stock was already dented when he checked in at the Combine at a shade over 6'1. He was listed 6'3 at Texas Tech.
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