Saturday, February 06, 2010 #

Super Bowl Predictions

Lenny Pappano: Colts 38, Saints 24
 
I love the Saints -- and I will be rooting for them tomorrow.  But I just don't see them winning.  The Saints got lucky to beat the Vikings. (Yes, I've heard the analysts who claim the Saints defense created all the Vikings turnovers... sorry, but a fumbled handoff between Favre and Peterson had nothing whatsoever to do with the Saints defense).  Every questionable call went the Saints way that day.  And the fact is, the Saints have only played one good game (vs. Arizona) in the last month-and-a-half.  Before that, the team finished the regular season on a 3-game losing streak.  Now they face the Peyton Manning-led Colts.  The Saints won't get the gifts that Favre gave them two weeks ago.  Manning is too careful with the ball. In the end, I'm afraid the game won't even be close.  Colts by two TDs.  Call it 38-24 Indy.  I hope I'm wrong.  But this one has the feeling of a Colts blowout.
 
 
Jared Smola: Saints 31, Colts 28
 
To steal a line from my man Bill Simmons, the Saints will be operating under the “nobody-believes-in-us” premise on Sunday. No one is giving them a shot against the suddenly unbeatable Colts. But I think the Saints are just as talented offensively. And on the defensive side of the ball, I’d call it a dead-heat with Colts DE Dwight Freeney and CB Jerraud Powers banged-up. Sure, the Saints lost 3 straight to close out the season, but they also won 13 in a row before that. Then they dismantled a Cardinals team in the Divisional Round before sneaking by the Vikings to earn a trip to the Super Bowl. Of course, if you listen to most pundits, the Saints didn’t win that game as much as the Vikings lost it with 5 giveaways. But I’d argue that New Orleans won that game the same way they’ve won all year – by forcing turnovers. The Saints finished 2nd in the NFL with 39 takeaways. QB Peyton Manning is capable of turning the ball over – he did it 16 times this season. I think the Saints win the turnover battle on Sunday, and that’ll be enough to bring the Vince Lombardi trophy to a city that really needs it.
 
 
Jim Coventry: Colts 35, Saints 30
 
“Who dat say they gonna beat them Saints?” The Colts should be saying just that on Sunday. The Saints defense couldn’t stop the Vikings on their home field. Now they face a Colts offense that had 2 weeks to prepare for them – well, that’s almost unfair. Peyton Manning and company have been surgical in their assault on opposing defenses all season. They should be good for 5 TDs on Sunday. The Saints could take Reggie Wayne away, but Indy has plenty of options at their disposal to wear the defense down. The Colts have great defensive speed in their cover-2 scheme. They’ll certainly give up plenty of yards, especially to Marques Colston and Pierre Thomas. But the defensive speed will keep Drew Brees and his secondary options from the big plays they rely upon. Look for the Saints to settle for a few FGs instead of TDs. Those FGs will keep the great city of New Orleans from a much-deserved win.
 
 
Kevin English: Saints 41, Colts 38
 

In a game that will pin two premier QBs against two mediocre defenses, you can be certain there will be plenty of scoring in Super Bowl XLIV.  But who will score more?  The Saints come into Sunday’s showdown as slight underdogs, but injuries to several key Colts -- Dwight Freeney in particular -- could prove to be the difference maker.  Drew Brees and the Saints potent passing attack should be able to take advantage of Freeney’s limited effectiveness, and pick apart a Colts secondary that could potentially be without CB Jerraud Powers.  With all the weapons Brees has to work with, the Colts will struggle to matchup with the Saints multiple WR looks.  Sure, the Saints don’t exactly have the best personnel groupings to matchup with the Colts, but they do possess an excellent CB/S tandem in Jabari Greer and Darren Sharper.  Look for them to help keep Peyton Manning and the Colts passing game in check just enough to squeak out a last minute victory. 

www.draftsharks.com

posted @ Saturday, February 06, 2010 7:08 PM | Feedback (0)

Wednesday, January 06, 2010 #

Wild Card Round Predictions

by Jared Smola

 

Jets at Bengals (Saturday, 4:30 pm ET)

These are the two worst teams in the playoffs. That being said, this game should be neck-and-neck. The Jets looked like bona fide Super Bowl contenders last week en route to a 37-0 spanking of the Bengals. They’re not that good. And Cincinnati isn’t that bad. Besides running a “vanilla” offense – WR Chad Ochocinco said they played it like a preseason game – the Bengals rested key starters on both sides of the ball. RB Cedric Benson, TE J.P. Foschi, DT Domata Peko, DE Robert Geathers, and FS Chris Crocker were all inactive for last Sunday night’s meeting. Benson and Peko’s returns, especially, should make Saturday’s rematch a completely different ballgame. Still, this isn’t a good matchup for the Bengals. The Jets – winners of 5 of their last 6 – enter with the league’s top-rated defense and running game. CB Darrelle Revis should be able to shut down WR Chad Ochocinco (again). And without any other weapons in the passing game, that leaves the Bengals offense to rely on RB Cedric Benson. The Jets offense is just as one-dimensional though. They’ve lost any faith they had in QB Mark Sanchez’s ability to go downfield. With a CB duo of Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, the Bengals will be able to stick 8 or even 9 guys in the box to stop RBs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. Wildcat man Brad Smith is the x-factor, but you know Bengals DC Mike Zimmer is staying up late at night devising a game plan to slow him down.  This game will come down to turnovers. Sanchez’s 20 INTs this season were 2nd most in the NFL. He’ll toss a couple more in his first career playoff game, and that’ll be the difference in this low-scoring affair.
Prediction: Bengals 17, Jets 13
 
Eagles at Cowboys (Saturday, 8 pm ET)
In a matter of one week, the Eagles went from the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl to underdogs in the Wild Card Round. Such is life in the NFL – a “what have you done for me lately” league. Saturday night’s matchup between these NFC East foes is the most intriguing of the four 1st-round games. The winner of this one has the ability to run the table. The Cowboys won both of their previous meetings this season, out-scoring the Eagles 44-16, out-gaining them 832-525, and out-sacking them 7-6. That last stat is the Eagles’ biggest concern in this one: protecting QB Donovan McNabb. C Jamaal Jackson’s (knee) absence was clearly felt last Sunday, and the coaching staff will need to do a better job masking that weakness in the middle of the line. It’s been the Cowboys’ pressure on McNabb – not their coverage in the secondary – that has limited WR DeSean Jackson to just 5 catches for 76 yards in 2 meetings. D-Jax was open deep a few times last Sunday, but McNabb missed him because of defenders in his face. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys seem too balanced and too explosive to be stopped right now. QB Tony Romo is playing the best ball of his career, leading the ‘Boys to a 5-2 record to close out the season while throwing 12 TDs and just 3 INTs over that span. RBs Marion Barber and Felix Jones, WR Miles Austin, and TE Jason Witten comprise arguably the league’s most dangerous group of skill position players. They say it’s tough to beat a team 3 times in 1 season, but Dallas is good enough – and hot enough – to do it.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Eagles 24
 
Ravens at Patriots (Sunday, 1 pm ET)
We’re not used to the Patriots entering the postseason with so many question marks. Can QB Tom Brady hold up with 3 broken ribs and a fractured finger on his throwing hand? Can WR Julian Edelman do enough to make up for WR Wes Welker’s absence? Can the Patriots secondary stop anyone? Their matchup with the Ravens on Sunday is the only Wild Card game that isn’t a repeat of Week 17 action. But these two teams did meet earlier this season. Back in Week 4, New England defeated Baltimore inside Gillette Stadium by a score of 27-21. The Ravens defense did a nice job in that one, recording 3 sacks, 2 takeaways, and a TD. They’ll need to be just as good in this one. And that’ll be quite a bit easier with Welker out. Baltimore will bracket WR Randy Moss and force WRs Sam Aiken and Julian Edelman to beat them. But Edelman, especially, is capable of doing that. The Ravens secondary is short-handed after losing impressive rookie CB Lardarius Webb in Week 15. Since then, they’ve given up 259 passing yards to QB Ben Roethlisberger and 180 yards to QB Charlie Frye before the incompetent JaMarcus Russell entered for the 2nd stanza. Baltimore’s best bet in this one is to get after Brady – and maybe even knock him out of the game. The Ravens offensive game plan will be simple: run, run, run. The Patriots rank 13th in run defense but allow 4.4 yards per carry (20th in the NFL). The expected return of NT Vince Wilfork – who missed the season’s final 3 games – will help, but RBs Ray Rice and Willis McGahee should still find plenty of running room. New England’s defense is even more susceptible through the air, playing much worse than their 12th-ranked pass defense would indicate. Unfortunately, Ravens QB Joe Flacco is in the midst of a sophomore slump and probably won’t be able to take advantage. When it comes down to it, Baltimore’s defense is no longer good enough to win them games. And their offense isn’t yet good enough to do it. They make too many mental mistakes late in games, and the Patriots will capitalize.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 17
 
Packers at Cardinals (Sunday, 4:40 pm ET)
Outside of the Chargers, no team is hotter than the Packers. They’ve won 7 of their last 8, highlighted by impressive victories over the Cowboys and Ravens. Their only loss during that stretch was a last second heartbreaker at the hands of the Steelers. QB Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as any QB in the league right now. And no one has a more dangerous group of playmakers in the passing game. Green Bay’s WRs go 4 deep with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson. Plus, TE Jermichael Finley is developing into an elite option at the position. The Cardinals enter this game banged-up. WR Anquan Boldin suffered knee and ankle injuries last weekend and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie also left with a knee contusion. Arizona’s offense figures to be one-dimensional in this one. The Packers enter with the league’s top run defense. The Cardinals aren’t patient enough to stick with the ground game when it isn’t working. That could be a problem against a Packers team that leads the NFL in INTs. If Boldin can’t go, Defensive Player of the Year candidate Charles Woodson will be able to shadow WR Larry Fitzgerald. He won’t shut Fitz down, but he is capable of containing him. The Cards will need to score in bunches to keep up with the Packers on Sunday. Their 23rd-ranked pass defense figures to struggle with or without Rodgers-Cromartie. Getting pressure on Rodgers would help, but the Packers offensive line has been much better in the season’s 2nd half. And RB Ryan Grant is piping hot, averaging 5.9 yards per carry in his last 4 games. Are the Cardinals capable of hitting a groove again and reaching the Super Bowl? Sure. But don’t bank on it.
Prediction: Packers 34, Cardinals 23

posted @ Wednesday, January 06, 2010 1:12 PM | Feedback (0)

Monday, January 04, 2010 #

DS Takes Home Some Hardware

1/4/09

DraftSharks finished on top in both the Fantasy Football Indepth’s Experts Challenge and the Fantasy Football Indepth’s IDP Challenge.

 

We just snuck into the playoffs in the Experts Challenge as the 6 seed.  But led by a Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles tag-team, DS got hot and won it all.  We defeated Athlon Sports by just under 10 points in the Championship Game.

 

In the IDP Challenge, DS was one of the strongest teams all year.  Despite finishing with the most total regular season points, we finished with a 9-4 record and snagged the 3 seed.  Scoring the most points in both the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, DS vaulted into the Championship Game.  And what a game that was! DS defeated Fantasy Football Trader 166.45 – 166.40 thanks to Adrian Peterson’s fumble in overtime.

 

In DraftSharks’ 3rd and final head-to-head league, our team made the playoffs but was defeated in the semifinals by Fantasy Crowd.

 

DS also had an impressive showing in the Fantasy Sports Writers Association League.  Out of 60 teams, DS Jared finished in 2nd place.  Here’s how the top-3 shook out:

 

1. Team Joe Levit                                            887.64
2. Draft Sharks - Jared Smola                          872.19
3. BFD Fantasy Football - Louis Tranquilli          870.02

 

A pretty decent season if we don’t say so ourselves!

www.draftsharks.com

posted @ Monday, January 04, 2010 12:44 PM | Feedback (0)

Wednesday, December 09, 2009 #

Where does Slaton fit in next season?

by Jared Smola

 

Most of us are guilty of jumping the gun on Steve Slaton. 
The guy was a 3rd round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. Most experts agreed that he was too small to make it in the NFL. His success at West Virginia was a product of the offensive system, they said. He was ignored in 2008 fantasy drafts.
But an injury to Ahman Green forced Slaton into action last season. In Week 3 – just his 2nd game as a pro – Slaton carried 18 times for 116 yards and a TD. He followed that up with 8 more games of 100+ total yards. Slaton finished his rookie season with 1,659 all-purpose yards and 10 TDs. He was a top-10 RB in all formats.
Again, this guy went undrafted in virtually every fantasy league that season.
On the heels of that brilliant rookie campaign, Slaton vaulted into the late-1st or early-2nd round of most drafts this past summer. And why not? He displayed immense talent in his 1st season. The Texans offense was on the upswing. And the only competition the team brought in was Chris Brown. We ranked Slaton as a top-10 RB in standard leagues, and a top-8 guy in PPRs!
But his sophomore season was a disaster from the get-go. He totaled just 51 rushing yards on 26 carries in his first 2 games. Then the fumbilitis took over. Through 8 weeks, Slaton had put the ball on the turf 7 times. 5 of those resulted in turnovers.
At some point during November, Slaton suffered a neck injury. He played through it despite experiencing numbness in his arm. He finally visited a specialist this past Tuesday and was placed on IR. He finished his 2nd NFL season with just 437 rushing yards on 3.3 yards per carry.
So where does Slaton fit into fantasy drafts next season? Personally, I’ll be willing to gamble on him if he makes it past the 4th or 5th round. Of course, that could change if this neck injury turns out to be more serious than initially thought. Or if the team goes out and brings in a stud RB.
That’s unlikely though. I do think they’ll bring in competition – someone much better than Chris Brown. But Slaton won’t be phased out. He’s too good. Talent doesn’t just go away. The speed and shake he exhibited his rookie season are still in those legs. And perhaps more importantly, it seems like he’s solved his ball security issues. Slaton didn’t fumble in any of his last 3 games.
It’s early – really early – to be making prognostications for next season. But if I had to guess, I’d say the Texans use Slaton in a role somewhere between that of Darren Sproles and Tim Hightower. 10 carries and 4-5 catches per game sounds about right.  
He was undervalued in ’08 fantasy drafts. Overvalued in ’09. I’m betting that he’s undervalued again next summer.
Consider me the first one aboard the 2010 Steve Slaton Train!

www.draftsharks.com

posted @ Wednesday, December 09, 2009 3:50 PM | Feedback (0)

Wednesday, December 02, 2009 #

Alex Smith, Vince Young... and Fantasy Championships???

by Jared Smola

Yep, that’s right. Just 6 months ago, they were considered the 2 of the biggest busts of the decade. Now, Alex Smith and Vince Young appear to be gearing up to lead teams to fantasy championships.

If you’re struggling with Kurt Warner’s post-concussion symptoms, Jay Cutler’s turnover bonanza, or Carson Palmer’s inconsistencies, consider picking up both Smith and Young. 
We talk about utilizing QB by committees a lot in the preseason, but how about this fantasy playoff QBBC:
Week 13: Smith @ Seattle (24th in FP allowed to QBs)
Week 14: Smith vs. Arizona (23rd) OR Young vs. St Louis (21st)
Week 15: Young vs. Miami (27th)
Week 16: Smith vs. Detroit (32nd)
Week 17: Young @ Seattle (24th) OR Smith @ St. Louis (21st)
Just something to think about…

posted @ Wednesday, December 02, 2009 2:24 PM | Feedback (0)

Monday, November 23, 2009 #

Potential Playoff Studs

by Jared Smola

We'll have more on this in our 3rd Buy/Sell/Hold Report next week, but here's a quick list of some guys I think will be on a lot of championship fantasy squads:

QB Drew Brees -- kinda an easy one, but his fantasy playoff games are against the Falcons, Cowboys, and Bucs.  Money.

QB Kurt Warner -- just stay healthy, Old Man.  Playoff games against the Niners, Lions, and Rams.

QB Matt Hasselbeck -- throwing like there's no tomorrow recently.  Love what Forsett does in the passing game. 

RB Beanie Wells -- picking up more and more work each week.  3 playoff games against teams in bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to RBs.

RB Jamaal Charles -- posted solid numbers against the league's top rush defense this past week.  Week 14 and 15 games against the Bills and Browns.

WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin -- see Warner above.

WR Derrick Mason -- steady as ever and 3 excellent playoff matchups.

WR Mike Sims-Walker -- on fire since moving into the starting lineup.

WR Michael Crabtree -- games against the Cardinals and Lions Weeks 14 and 16.  Just love what this guy brings to the table.

TE Vernon Davis -- Right on Dallas Clark's tail for  #1 fantasy TE honors.  VD gets 3 bottom-10 defenses against the TE in the playoffs.

TE Kevin Boss -- getting hot at the right time.  Could score another 3-4 times this year.

TE Jermichael Finley -- unfavorable schedule, but the guy's a stud and Rodgers loves him.

www.draftsharks.com

posted @ Monday, November 23, 2009 9:07 PM | Feedback (0)

Tuesday, November 10, 2009 #

How's DS Doing?

by Jared Smola

Let's take a quick look at how DraftSharks' 5 expert league teams are doing through 9 weeks:

 

Fantasy Football Indepth’s Experts Challenge
DS Record: 5-4 (5th place)
Studs: Chris Johnson, Ronnie Brown, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Shockey
Duds: Felix Jones, Willie Parker, Anquan Boldin, Antonio Bryant
Note: we released Miles Austin in this league… $@#%!
 
Fantasy Football Indepth’s IDP Challenge
DS Record: 6-3 (3rd place)
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson, Randy Moss, DeSean Jackson, Sidney Rice, Roman Harper
Duds: Felix Jones, Roy Williams, Jonathan Vilma
 
Krause League
DS Record: 5-4 (6th place)
Studs: Ronnie Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Percy Harvin, Vernon Davis
Duds: Marshawn Lynch, Jerious Norwood
Note: this team is on a 3-game losing streak after starting 5-1
 
FSWA Experts League (Team Smola)
DS Record: 5-4 (4th place)
Studs: Maurice Jones-Drew, Ronnie Brown, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (NYG), Miles Austin
Duds: Darren McFadden, Jerious Norwood, Roy Williams
Note: this team has suffered some tough-luck losses and is currently 6th out of 60 teams in total points.
 
FSWA Experts League (Team Pappano)
DS Record: 5-4 (6th place)
Studs: Randy Moss, Miles Austin, Saints DEF
Duds: Willie Parker, Jerious Norwood, Roy Williams, Ted Ginn
 
** None of these teams have been dominant so far, but they’re all still in the hunt.  And there’s not a real dud in the group – every team is in the top-half of its league. Overall, DraftSharks teams are 26-19 for a respectable .578 winning percentage. 

posted @ Tuesday, November 10, 2009 1:52 PM | Feedback (0)

Monday, November 09, 2009 #

A Closer Look at Matt Forte

by Jared Smola

Ask 10 fantasy footballers who the biggest bust of the ’09 season is.  I bet at least 8 of them give you Matt Forte’s name.  And they’d probably be right.  Forte – a consensus top-5 pick, and a top-3 pick in most drafts – is currently the 17th-ranked RB in PPR leagues and 18th in standard-scoring leagues.

 

But his numbers aren’t all that different from last year.  Except one thing: touchdowns.  Through 8 games, Forte has racked up 700 total yards on 123 rushes and 30 receptions.  That puts him on pace for 1,400 yards from scrimmage and 60 catches.  In his big rookie year, he finished with 1,715 total yards and 63 catches.  So in PPR leagues, he’s only 34 points off last year’s pace – a measly 2 fantasy points per game.

 

But then there are those things they call TDs, hitting pay dirt, the money shot.  Forte only has 3 of those so far this season.  He finished last year with 12.  And that’s the difference between being the top RB – like Forte was last year – and being barely a top-20 RB – like Forte is this year. 

 

So will Forte pick up his TD production in the 2nd half?  He’s seen plenty of opportunities.  Forte is currently 3rd in the NFL with 33 red zone rushes.  But he’s scored on just 2 of those for a putrid 6% conversion rate.  And both of those scores came against the lowly Browns.  So unless something changes along the offensive line, or in Forte’s nose for the end zone, it’s difficult to project an uptick in Forte’s TD production.

 

Forte is coming off back-to-back 100-total yard efforts.  Now seems like the perfect time to put him on the trade block.  But if you do deal him, make sure the other side knows about his solid yardage production this year.  And make sure you get a nice haul for your 1st-round pick. 

www.draftsharks.com

posted @ Monday, November 09, 2009 9:21 PM | Feedback (0)

Thursday, November 05, 2009 #

FALJ: Fans Against L.J.

by Jared Smola

Check this out -- Chiefs fans have started a petition asking management to deactivate RB Larry Johnson for the rest of the season.  They don't want him to break Priest Holmes' franchise rushing record.  Over 15,500 people have already signed.  Here's a link to the petition (and yes, we signed!):

http://www.petitiononline.com/StopLJ/

posted @ Thursday, November 05, 2009 3:29 PM | Feedback (0)

Wednesday, October 28, 2009 #

ESPN, Jay Cutler, and The Game Clock

by Brett Barclay

 

I’ve got a pretty solid Friday routine. Get home from the bar around 2:15. Put on my Syracuse Basketball shorts. Pour myself a bowl of Cherrios. Plop myself on the couch. And painfully turn on The World Wide Leader, because in my buzzed state I truly believe that “it will be good for my job.” 
But as I fell asleep to that warming glow last weekend, I heard Trey Wingo say something to the effect of “Jay Cutler sucks!” That got me thinking -- most of my fantasy cohorts actually believe this crap. And why wouldn’t they? ESPN is accessible, loves Boston and New York, and won’t ever, EVER, stray from conventional thinking – essentially any female in a Woody Allen movie. So, after a week of TiVoing NFL Live, my brain was a soggy ball of clichés. Coaches “just wanting to get better.” Teams going “back and forth all day.” And Brett Favre being “just a kid out there.”
But after my quasi-experiment, one thing stood out. There is a big difference between ESPN-good and fantasy football-good. And there is an even bigger difference between ESPN-suck and fantasy football-suck.
I present you exhibit 1a and 1b – 2008 Joe Flacco and 2009 Mark Sanchez. As a rookie last year, Flacco started all 16 games for the Ravens, won 11 of them, and even took his team to an AFC Championship. If you lived in a lead boat for the 2008 season and all you had was a TV that showed NFL Live on repeat, Joe Flacco was a golden god by way of ESPN-talk.
In the fantasy realm, Flacco finished 20th among QBs, barely worth a roster spot. Never threw for 300 yards, cracked 250 once and had 5 multi-INT games.
We saw the Flacco effect with Mark Sanchez this year – well, before the Buffalo game. The only difference is that it was magnified ten fold because he’s in New York and he’s so darn cute. Those kind of things work for ESPN.
And we all saw what happened to Flacco in the Buffalo game. Need I say more about his fantasy value?
I needed to find more players that fit into this theory, so I started to compile a list of players that met the following criteria:
·         Generally considered a “bad” player by mainstream media.
·         Had a bit of ESPN-hype surrounding him this offseason that led to semi-unreasonable expectations.
·         Is still performing in the top-20 at his position (fantasy-wise) despite being “bad”
·         Most importantly, has a favorable outlook for the rest of the season
To my surprise, the list was short. Torry Holt was close, but sat just outside of most criteria. Clinton Portis was another, but again, he was teetering on the edge of most criteria. But the one player that stuck out like a sore thumb was Jay Cutler.
First of all, Cutler has a bad attitude. You can’t deny that. The guy acts like all of the chairs in his house are made of razorblades. And on top of that, he’s kinda ugly. If ESPN rated players like my buddies rate girls he’d be a 4:22 [1]. These are key elements to unnecessary criticism that a lot of players get from The Worldwide Leader. With that said, Cutler’s not getting off free here either – not in this blog. Some of that criticism is warranted. His 1st game as a Bear was atrocious -- 1 TD, 4 INTs. And his most recent game as a Bear wasn’t any better -- 1 TD, 3 INTs. But in ESPN’s bizarre world, those are the games that get magnified. The top-10 (fantasy) performances in the 4 games in between are what the ESPN crowd is not seeing.
So here it is. I am issuing a “Trade Now for Jay Cutler” advisory. The advisory is in effect until Sunday, any later and you’ll be out of luck. I say this because Cutler is on the verge of blowing up and it starts Sunday against the Browns.
Check it out:
First -- and this is more of a rule of thumb for trading this time of year -- Cutler has already had his bye week.  So in that regard you’re getting an extra ounce of value out of any trade because it’s guaranteed fantasy points that otherwise you would not have.
For the number-crunchers, take a look at his split stats over the course of his career. Historically, November is Cutler’s best month of football with 13 TDs in 9 games, just 8 INTs, and an average of just under 250 yards per game.
But most importantly, it’s the schedule. The Bears have 10 games remaining. These are 8 of those opponents with their pass defense rank in parenthesis: Cleveland (24th), Arizona (29th), San Francisco (21st), Minnesota (20th), St. Louis (25th), Baltimore (23rd), Minnesota again, and Detroit (30th).   And those other 2 opponents, Green Bay and Philadelphia, are both in the bottom-half of the league in passing TDs allowed.
And finally, despite what ESPN tells you, this offense isn’t that bad. There are plenty of passing options. These weak defenses in the upcoming weeks will spark the running game.  And every week, Cutler becomes more familiar with a Bears offense that is still relatively new to him.
Find your Cutler owner, pray that he’s an ESPN junkie, and make this trade. He’s the 16th ranked QB in most formats right now. I’m betting he finished the season inside the top-10.


[1] We have this system that we call “The Game Clock.”  Someone asks, “what time’s the game?” Other friend spots the female and responds using an hour and minute. The hour is the chick’s overall rating and the minute is the estimated age.

posted @ Wednesday, October 28, 2009 3:52 PM | Feedback (0)